Pacific Coast Champs - 2 Div

HostUC Santa Barbara
Date11/15/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED Two-Conference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	University of Hawaii	Rainbows	35	27	62
2	Stanford University	White	39	31	70
3	California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	41	41	82
4	Stanford University	Red	43	42	85
5	California State University Channel Islands	Dolphins	22	86	108
6	University of Southern California	Trojans	46	77	123
7	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	88	60	148
8	California State University Long Beach	49ers	74	80	154
9	Santa Clara University	Broncos	91	89	180
10	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gaucho Women	104	93	197
11	Western Washington University	Vikings	100	111	211
12	University of Victoria	Thunder	119 MRP	98 MRP	217 MRP
13	University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	133	145	278
14	University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears	158	127	285
15	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang	164	131	295
16	University of California at Davis	Aggies	145	153	298
17	University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	171	129	300
18	University of California at San Diego	Tritons	139	162	301
19	University of Oregon	Ducks	187	126	313
20	University of California at Berkeley	Lady Golden Bears	179	148	327
21	Arizona State University	Sun Devils	145	193	338
22	Westmont College	Warriors	144	204	348
23	University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slug's	176	184	360
24	California State University Monterey Bay	Otters	177	192	369

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	TOT	Sailors
California State University Channel Islands	Dolphins	2	6	1	1	1	5	4	1	1	22	Gregory Dair '15 Bianca Barnes '15
University of Hawaii	Rainbows	5	5	6	2	4	4	1	6	2	35	Adam Pokras '14 Louise Currie '18
Stanford University	White	4	4	4	4	2	2	3	12	4	39	Lily Katz '17 Sarah Placek '18
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	1	3	8	5	5	8	6	2	3	41	Chris Vilicich '16 Elisabeth Mckee '17
Stanford University	Red	11	1	5	3	6	1	2	9	5	43	Axel Sly '16 Cally Tullo '17
University of Southern California	Trojans	9	2	3	6	3	7	5	4	7	46	Matthew Hecht '16 Hope Modugno '18
California State University Long Beach	49ers	8	13	11	10	9	3	9	5	6	74	Mark Ryan '15 Ari Zeen '17
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	10	7	2	16	7	11	8	19	8	88	Stephen Long '17 Madisson Thomas '17
Santa Clara University	Broncos	3	8	9	7	11	20	15	8	10	91	Francesca Cappellini '16 [1-9] Melissa Shadden '17 [1-6] Jeff Barone '17 [7-9]
Western Washington University	Vikings	7	16	7	9	15	9	11	15	11	100	Paul Foley '15 [1-9] Cynthia Sovulewski '19 [1-3] Elsa Balton '17 [4-9]
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gaucho Women	12	9	15	13	13	10	12	7	13	104	Simone Staff '18 Danielle Erjavec '17
University of Victoria	Thunder	6	10	10	12	8	12	7	11	23	119 MRP	Reid Cannon '15 Sarah Berry '15
University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	19	14	18	11	14	13	13	13	18	133	Nicholas Weis '15 Deanne Buckman '15
University of California at San Diego	Tritons	16	11	19	8	19	24	16	10	16	139	Nicolas Delfino '16 Cheyenne Wright '16
Westmont College	Warriors	14	12	22	18	12	18	18	16	14	144	Sarah Davis '15 [1-9] Mindy Chow '16 [1-3] Alice Geng '16 [4-9]
Arizona State University	Sun Devils	17	20	20	14	10	14	21	20	9	145	Alexander Smith '18 Carter Hill '17
University of California at Davis	Aggies	20	18	24	15	21	15	17	3	12	145	Lucas Murray '15 [1-9] Natasha Jarett '14 [1-4] Sabrina Perell '18 [5-9]
University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears	24	15	12	20	22	19	10	17	19	158	Stephen Bordes '15 Katheryn Bell '16
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang	21	17	14	24	16	22	14	14	22	164	Graham Gooding '16 Grace Carrick '18
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	13	22	16	19	17	21	23	23	17	171	Gabriel Monti '15 Laura Roudebush '18
University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slug's	18	21	23	17	18	17	20	22	20	176	Alex Verdoia '15 Altea Hines '16
California State University Monterey Bay	Otters	15	23	13	22	20	23	19	21	21	177	Peter Schmidt '18 Claudia Marino '17
University of California at Berkeley	Lady Golden Bears	22	19	21	23	23	16	22	18	15	179	Kyra Oakes '18 Ekaterina Goncharova '18
University of Oregon	Ducks	23	24	17	21	24	6	24	24	24	187	Ryan Fritsen '14 David Scott '16

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	TOT	Sailors
University of Hawaii	Rainbows	3	1	6	1	4	3	5	3	1	27	Giacomo Paoletti '15 Katrina Berry '15
Stanford University	White	5	3	1	3	1	9	3	4	2	31	Holly Tullo '17 Noelle Herring '16
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	1	5	2	8	6	1	10	2	6	41	Corey Lynch '17 Eileen Welch '15
Stanford University	Red	7	2	4	2	5	8	4	7	3	42	Will La Dow '18 [1-8] Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk '17 [9] Amelia Hardy '18 [1-8] John Cannistraro '17 [9]
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	4	4	3	10	18	4	7	6	4	60	Ian Stokes '16 [1-9] Claire Stivers '18 [1-5] Alexandria Ivory '18 [6-9]
University of Southern California	Trojans	2	11	8	6	8	18	6	11	7	77	John Coakley '16 Paul Chyz '18
California State University Long Beach	49ers	10	7	10	7	7	10	8	9	12	80	Tyler Webb '15 Anna Rubino '16
California State University Channel Islands	Dolphins	11	20	9	DNS	2	6	2	5	5	86	Jeffrey Tedmori '15 Maddy Brownsea '18
Santa Clara University	Broncos	12	8	5	9	15	2	9	10	19	89	Francesca Dana '18 Madeleine Fawcett '17
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gaucho Women	6	12	11	14	3	12	11	13	11	93	Ginger Luckey '16 Marina Fennell '17
University of Victoria	Thunder	9	6	7	5	12	5	14	12	8	98 MRP	David Berry '16 Nicki Le Baron '15
Western Washington University	Vikings	16	17	18	19	9	21	1	1	9	111	Ryan Van Slyck '17 [1-4] Miles Johannessen '18 [5-9] Luca Becker '15 [1-4, 9] Ryan Van Slyck '17 [5-8]
University of Oregon	Ducks	8	15	14	4	11	17	15	21	21	126	Eliza Pearce '15 Gretchen Rude '17
University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears	17	10	17	18	14	7	12	17	15	127	Ian Markowitz '17 Alexandre Mutricy '17
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	15	13	12	12	13	16	20	14	14	129	Sarah Wyman '17 Justina Leo '15
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang	13	14	13	16	10	11	18	19	17	131	David Cornella '17 Greg Kushnir '18
University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	18	19	20	15	19	13	13	18	10	145	Brian Maclean '18 [1-9] Dominic Brack '16 [1-4] Philip Tagatac '17 [5-9]
University of California at Berkeley	Lady Golden Bears	19	9	16	11	16	19	19	23	16	148	Jennifer Hays '17 Delaney Evans '17
University of California at Davis	Aggies	14	18	19	DNS	17	14	16	16	13	153	Robert Jones '16 [1-9] Hayley Palmer '17 [1-4] Natasha Jarett '14 [5-9]
University of California at San Diego	Tritons	21	16	15	17	21	20	17	15	20	162	Brett Farrell '17 Hayley Chong '17
University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slug's	24	24	22	21	22	23	22	8	18	184	Kip Wanaselja '16 Ry Ulmer-Strack '18
California State University Monterey Bay	Otters	20	23	23	DNS	20	15	21	22	22	192	Alicia Ward '18 Lauren Orloff '16
Arizona State University	Sun Devils	22	22	24	13	23	22	23	20	24	193	Conor Mcgee '17 [1-9] Kylie Jenkins '16 [1-8] Alexandra Heisler '18 [9]
Westmont College	Warriors	23	21	21	20	24	24	24	24	23	204	Ryan Morgan '15 Abby Gritter '17

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.190+0.19

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2011 (20 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A
Arizona State University Sun Devils	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23
University of California at Berkeley Lady Golden Bears	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
California State University Channel Islands Dolphins	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
California State University Long Beach 49ers	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
University of Hawaii Rainbows	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35
California State University Monterey Bay Otters	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
University of Oregon Ducks	73	73	73	73	73	73	73	73	73
Santa Clara University Broncos	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19
University of Southern California Trojans	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37
Stanford University Red	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
Stanford University White	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22
University of California at Davis Aggies	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47
University of California at Irvine Anteaters	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
University of California at San Diego Tritons	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29
University of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
University of Victoria Thunder	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89
Western Washington University Vikings	87	87	87	87	87	87	87	87	87
Westmont College Warriors	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B
Arizona State University Sun Devils	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23
University of California at Berkeley Lady Golden Bears	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
California State University Channel Islands Dolphins	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
California State University Long Beach 49ers	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
University of Hawaii Rainbows	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35
California State University Monterey Bay Otters	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
University of Oregon Ducks	73	73	73	73	73	73	73	73	73
Santa Clara University Broncos	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19
University of Southern California Trojans	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37
Stanford University Red	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
Stanford University White	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22
University of California at Davis Aggies	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47
University of California at Irvine Anteaters	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
University of California at San Diego Tritons	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29
University of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
University of Victoria Thunder	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89
Western Washington University Vikings	87	87	87	87	87	87	87	87	87
Westmont College Warriors	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Arizona State University	Alexander Smith '18	Carter Hill '17
Sun Devils	Conor Mcgee '17 [1-9]	Kylie Jenkins '16 [1-8] Alexandra Heisler '18 [9]
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Graham Gooding '16	Grace Carrick '18
Mustang	David Cornella '17	Greg Kushnir '18
California Maritime Academy	Chris Vilicich '16	Elisabeth Mckee '17
Keelhaulers	Corey Lynch '17	Eileen Welch '15
California State University Channel Islands	Gregory Dair '15	Bianca Barnes '15
Dolphins	Jeffrey Tedmori '15	Maddy Brownsea '18
California State University Long Beach	Mark Ryan '15	Ari Zeen '17
49ers	Tyler Webb '15	Anna Rubino '16
California State University Monterey Bay	Peter Schmidt '18	Claudia Marino '17
Otters	Alicia Ward '18	Lauren Orloff '16
Santa Clara University	Francesca Cappellini '16 [1-9]	Melissa Shadden '17 [1-6] Jeff Barone '17 [7-9]
Broncos	Francesca Dana '18	Madeleine Fawcett '17
Stanford University	Axel Sly '16	Cally Tullo '17
Red	Will La Dow '18 [1-8] Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk '17 [9]	Amelia Hardy '18 [1-8] John Cannistraro '17 [9]
Stanford University	Lily Katz '17	Sarah Placek '18
White	Holly Tullo '17	Noelle Herring '16
University of California at Berkeley	Stephen Bordes '15	Katheryn Bell '16
Golden Bears	Ian Markowitz '17	Alexandre Mutricy '17
University of California at Berkeley	Kyra Oakes '18	Ekaterina Goncharova '18
Lady Golden Bears	Jennifer Hays '17	Delaney Evans '17
University of California at Davis	Lucas Murray '15 [1-9]	Natasha Jarett '14 [1-4] Sabrina Perell '18 [5-9]
Aggies	Robert Jones '16 [1-9]	Hayley Palmer '17 [1-4] Natasha Jarett '14 [5-9]
University of California at Irvine	Nicholas Weis '15	Deanne Buckman '15
Anteaters	Brian Maclean '18 [1-9]	Dominic Brack '16 [1-4] Philip Tagatac '17 [5-9]
University of California at Los Angeles	Gabriel Monti '15	Laura Roudebush '18
Bruins	Sarah Wyman '17	Justina Leo '15
University of California at San Diego	Nicolas Delfino '16	Cheyenne Wright '16
Tritons	Brett Farrell '17	Hayley Chong '17
University of California at Santa Barbara	Simone Staff '18	Danielle Erjavec '17
Gaucho Women	Ginger Luckey '16	Marina Fennell '17
University of California at Santa Barbara	Stephen Long '17	Madisson Thomas '17
Gauchos	Ian Stokes '16 [1-9]	Claire Stivers '18 [1-5] Alexandria Ivory '18 [6-9]
University of California at Santa Cruz	Alex Verdoia '15	Altea Hines '16
Banana Slug's	Kip Wanaselja '16	Ry Ulmer-Strack '18
University of Hawaii	Adam Pokras '14	Louise Currie '18
Rainbows	Giacomo Paoletti '15	Katrina Berry '15
University of Oregon	Ryan Fritsen '14	David Scott '16
Ducks	Eliza Pearce '15	Gretchen Rude '17
University of Southern California	Matthew Hecht '16	Hope Modugno '18
Trojans	John Coakley '16	Paul Chyz '18
University of Victoria	Reid Cannon '15	Sarah Berry '15
Thunder	David Berry '16	Nicki Le Baron '15
Western Washington University	Paul Foley '15 [1-9]	Cynthia Sovulewski '19 [1-3] Elsa Balton '17 [4-9]
Vikings	Ryan Van Slyck '17 [1-4] Miles Johannessen '18 [5-9]	Luca Becker '15 [1-4, 9] Ryan Van Slyck '17 [5-8]
Westmont College	Sarah Davis '15 [1-9]	Mindy Chow '16 [1-3] Alice Geng '16 [4-9]
Warriors	Ryan Morgan '15	Abby Gritter '17

Conditions — 11/15/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 46% · Pressure 1016.6 hPa

Temperature

67°F

↑ 72°F ↓ 52°F

Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.5 kn

avg · max 8.1 kn

Gusts to 22.4 kn

From NW (318°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover8% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1016.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 9 kn · SW 7 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at UC Santa Barbara: a favourites’ day (+0.06)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment −0.04 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.01

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.08 ± 0.07)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Santa Barbara by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled days at UC Santa Barbara).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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