California State University Monterey Bay '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.73 (fleet 1.00) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–21 (34%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 4–10 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 7–11 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (32 matches) the record is 11–21 against 8.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-02-10 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.07 | 1.12 | 4–10 | 3.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2015-05-03 | 2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.90 | -2.10 | 0–8 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| 2015-02-28 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 0.43 | 2.43 | 7–3 | 3.4 | +2.00 | 5.5 | 1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC South Designate | Skipper | A | 12 | 13.6 | 1.02 |
| Pacific Coast Coed Dinghy Championships | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.2 | 1.33 |
| Mustang Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 20.1 | 0.23 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| 2018 St. Francis Invite | Skipper | A | 17 | 12.4 | 0.94 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke Interconference | Skipper | A | 1 | 9.0 | — |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship - 2 division | Skipper | A | 7 | 18.0 | 0.48 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 7 | 18.0 | 0.48 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC South Designate | Skipper | B | 8 | 18.8 | 0.25 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | B | 7 | 16.1 | -0.54 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | B | 7 | 18.7 | 0.24 |
| South Designate | Skipper | B | 9 | 15.2 | 0.59 |
| Mustang Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.7 | 0.65 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| 2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 0% | — |
| 2015 PCCSC Coed Championships | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.6 | 0.16 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | A | 6 | 19.8 | 0.61 |
| Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 9 | 19.7 | 0.22 |
| Pacific Coast Champs - 2 Div | Skipper | A | 9 | 19.7 | 0.22 |
| UCSD Frosh/Soph | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.7 | 0.26 |
| Central Coast Challenge | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.5 | -0.33 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Peter Schmidt |  Redwood High School |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
