2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship

HostStanford
Date05/03/2015
TypeConference Championship
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	11–0
2	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	9–2
3	University of Southern California	Trojans	6–5
4	University of Hawaii	Rainbows	6–5
5	University of California at Berkeley	Bears	4–4
6	California State University Long Beach	49ers	3–5
7	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang	2–6
8	University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	1–7
9	California State University Monterey Bay	Otters	0–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 5,741 team race matches sailed before 2015-05-03, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 37 of 43 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.312 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.08 ± 0.30: a typical event, more orderly than 34% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	13.10 school +0.57, home +0.26	Hans Henken / Nicolette Obel 4.01 Kieran Chung / Haley Kirk 4.37 Antoine Screve / John Cannistraro 4.04 6–0 Will La Dow / Samantha Steele 3.67 5–0	100%	11–0 (100%)	+0.1
2	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	2	8.55 school −0.07	Sterling Henken / Ginger Luckey 2.76 Stephen Long / Kristina Miller 3.45 Joseph Schiff / Neil Stapleton 2.22	69%	9–2 (82%)	+1.4
3	University of Southern California Trojans	5	7.17 school −0.25	Matthew Hecht / Hope Modugno 3.00 John Coakley / Paul Chyz 2.47 Kendall Sanson / Hank Huang 1.77	46%	7–5 (58%)	+1.5
4	University of Hawaii Rainbows	3	8.33	Chuck Eaton / Cuylar Zimmerman 2.98 Giacomo Paoletti / Mackenzie Cook 2.54 Jeremy Hitchcock / Patrick Manuel 2.40	67%	6–6 (50%)	−2.0
5	University of California at Berkeley Bears	8	3.82 school −0.67	Andrew Solomon / Lauren Rehbein Henry Keenan / Jacob Basinger 1.55 4–2 Eric Witte / Chun Ting Justin Lai 1.05 2–3 Matthew Thomas / Katie Hitchcock 2–3	18%	4–4 (50%)	+2.5
6	California State University Long Beach 49ers	4	6.38 school −0.47	Mark Ryan / Ari Zeen 2.59 Tyler Webb / Anna Rubino 1.98 Sunny Scarbrough / Nicholas Santos	50%	3–5 (38%)	−1.0
7	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	7	4.21 school +0.10	David Cornella / Kathryn Cornella 1.76 Graham Gooding / Oliver Kunz Joseph Lausten / Kathryn Eberle 1.18	22%	2–6 (25%)	+0.3
8	University of California at Irvine Anteaters	6	5.32 school +0.06	Nicholas Weis / Daniel Diaz 1.77 Samuel Heller / Caressa Brewer 1.95 Brian Maclean / Philip Tagatac 1.43	37%	1–7 (12%)	−1.9
9	California State University Monterey Bay Otters	9	3.42 school +0.42	Olivia Gibbons / Casey Weisenseel 1.30 Alicia Ward / Lauren Orloff 0.67 Peter Schmidt / Kylee Walterman 0.90	10%	0–8 (0%)	−0.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Stanford University	13.10	16.10	11–0	11.0	≥+3.00	0.1	95%
5	University of California at Berkeley	3.82	6.60	4–4	1.5	+2.78	5.3	1%
2	University of California at Santa Barbara	8.55	10.96	9–2	7.6	+2.41	2.0	18%
3	University of Southern California	7.17	8.22	7–5	5.5	+1.06	1.2	18%
7	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	4.21	4.53	2–6	1.7	+0.31	0.1	60%
6	California State University Long Beach	6.38	5.23	3–5	4.0	−1.15	0.9	96%
4	University of Hawaii	8.33	6.94	6–6	8.0	−1.40	2.1	98%
8	University of California at Irvine	5.32	3.00	1–7	2.9	−2.32	3.1	>99%
9	California State University Monterey Bay	3.42	0.42	0–8	0.8	≤−3.00	1.3	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Matthew Thomas	University of California at Berkeley	0.52	3.67	2–3	0.6	+3.15	3.2	7%
Henry Keenan	University of California at Berkeley	1.55	4.57	4–2	1.4	+3.01	5.5	1%
Antoine Screve	Stanford University	4.04	7.04	6–0	6.0	≥+3.00	0.0	98%
Hans Henken	Stanford University	4.01	7.01	11–0	11.0	≥+3.00	0.1	95%
Kieran Chung	Stanford University	4.37	7.37	11–0	11.0	≥+3.00	0.1	95%
Andrew Solomon	University of California at Berkeley	2.04	4.82	4–4	1.5	+2.78	5.3	1%
Sterling Henken	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.76	5.17	9–2	7.6	+2.41	2.0	18%
Stephen Long	University of California at Santa Barbara	3.45	5.86	9–2	7.6	+2.41	2.0	18%
Joseph Schiff	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.22	4.63	9–2	7.6	+2.41	2.0	18%
Eric Witte	University of California at Berkeley	1.05	3.33	2–3	0.9	+2.28	2.0	12%
John Coakley	University of Southern California	2.47	3.52	7–5	5.5	+1.06	1.2	18%
Kendall Sanson	University of Southern California	1.77	2.83	7–5	5.5	+1.06	1.2	18%
David Cornella	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	1.76	2.07	2–6	1.7	+0.31	0.1	60%
Graham Gooding	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	0.87	1.18	2–6	1.7	+0.31	0.1	60%
Joseph Lausten	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	1.18	1.49	2–6	1.7	+0.31	0.1	60%
Mark Ryan	California State University Long Beach	2.59	1.44	3–5	4.0	−1.15	0.9	96%
Tyler Webb	California State University Long Beach	1.98	0.84	3–5	4.0	−1.15	0.9	96%
Sunny Scarbrough	California State University Long Beach	2.07	0.92	3–5	4.0	−1.15	0.9	96%
Chuck Eaton	University of Hawaii	2.98	1.59	6–6	8.0	−1.40	2.1	98%
Giacomo Paoletti	University of Hawaii	2.54	1.15	6–6	8.0	−1.40	2.1	98%
Jeremy Hitchcock	University of Hawaii	2.40	1.00	6–6	8.0	−1.40	2.1	98%
Nicholas Weis	University of California at Irvine	1.77	-0.55	1–7	2.9	−2.32	3.1	>99%
Samuel Heller	University of California at Irvine	1.95	-0.37	1–7	2.9	−2.32	3.1	>99%
Brian Maclean	University of California at Irvine	1.43	-0.89	1–7	2.9	−2.32	3.1	>99%
Olivia Gibbons	California State University Monterey Bay	1.30	-1.70	0–8	0.8	≤−3.00	1.3	>99%
Alicia Ward	California State University Monterey Bay	0.67	-2.33	0–8	0.8	≤−3.00	1.3	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Stanford University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	100%
1	2	University of California at Irvine	California State University Monterey Bay	87%
1	3	University of California at Santa Barbara	California State University Long Beach	90%
1	4	University of Hawaii	University of California at Berkeley	99%
1	5	University of Southern California	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	95%
1	6	Stanford University	California State University Monterey Bay	100%
1	7	California State University Long Beach	University of California at Irvine	73%
1	8	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Berkeley	100%
1	9	University of Southern California	University of Hawaii	26%	upset
1	10	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	California State University Monterey Bay	68%
1	11	Stanford University	California State University Long Beach	100%
1	12	University of California at Berkeley	University of California at Irvine	17%	upset
1	13	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Hawaii	57%
1	14	University of Southern California	California State University Monterey Bay	97%
1	15	California State University Long Beach	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	90%
1	16	Stanford University	University of California at Berkeley	100%
1	17	University of Hawaii	University of California at Irvine	95%
1	18	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Southern California	80%
1	19	California State University Long Beach	California State University Monterey Bay	95%
1	20	University of California at Berkeley	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	40%	upset
1	21	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	99%
1	22	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Irvine	96%
1	23	University of Southern California	California State University Long Beach	66%
1	24	University of California at Berkeley	California State University Monterey Bay	70%
1	25	University of Hawaii	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	98%
1	26	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	99%
1	27	University of Southern California	University of California at Irvine	86%
1	28	University of California at Berkeley	California State University Long Beach	11%	upset
1	29	University of Hawaii	California State University Monterey Bay	99%
1	30	University of California at Santa Barbara	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	99%
1	31	Stanford University	University of California at Irvine	100%
1	32	University of Southern California	University of California at Berkeley	94%
1	33	University of Hawaii	California State University Long Beach	87%
1	34	University of California at Santa Barbara	California State University Monterey Bay	99%
1	35	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of California at Irvine	27%	upset
1	36	Stanford University	University of Southern California	100%
4	37	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Southern California	80%
4	38	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	99%
4	39	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Hawaii	54%
4	40	Stanford University	University of Southern California	100%
4	41	University of Hawaii	University of Southern California	78%
4	42	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	99%
4	43	University of Southern California	University of Hawaii	22%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Gauchos	Trojans	Rainbows	Bears	49ers	Mustang	Anteaters	Otters
Stanford University Cardinal	8–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	7–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Southern California Trojans	6–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	5–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Berkeley Bears	4–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
California State University Long Beach 49ers	3–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	2–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of California at Irvine Anteaters	1–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
California State University Monterey Bay Otters	0–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Gauchos	Trojans	Rainbows
Stanford University Cardinal	3–0	✕	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	2–1	L	✕	W	W
University of Southern California Trojans	1–3	L	L	✕	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	1–3	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Mustang	4-5-6
2	Anteaters	1-2-4	def.	Otters	3-5-6
3	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	49ers	3-5-6
4	Rainbows	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
5	Trojans	1-2-4	def.	Mustang	3-5-6
6	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Otters	4-5-6
7	49ers	1-3-5	def.	Anteaters	2-4-6
8	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
9	Trojans	1-3-6	def.	Rainbows	2-4-5
10	Mustang	1-2-5	def.	Otters	3-4-6
11	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	49ers	3-4-5
12	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Anteaters	2-4-5
13	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Rainbows	3-4-6
14	Trojans	1-2-3	def.	Otters	4-5-6
15	49ers	1-3-6	def.	Mustang	2-4-5
16	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
17	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Anteaters	4-5-6
18	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Trojans	3-4-5
19	49ers	1-2-3	def.	Otters	4-5-6
20	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Mustang	3-4-6
21	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Rainbows	3-4-5
22	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Anteaters	3-4-5
23	Trojans	1-2-3	def.	49ers	4-5-6
24	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Otters	2-3-6
25	Rainbows	1-2-5	def.	Mustang	3-4-6
26	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
27	Trojans	1-2-4	def.	Anteaters	3-5-6
28	Bears	1-2-5	def.	49ers	3-4-6
29	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Otters	4-5-6
30	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Mustang	3-5-6
31	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Anteaters	3-5-6
32	Trojans	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
33	Rainbows	1-2-6	def.	49ers	3-4-5
34	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Otters	4-5-6
35	Mustang	1-3-4	def.	Anteaters	2-5-6
36	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Trojans	4-5-6
37	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Trojans	4-5-6
38	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Rainbows	4-5-6
39	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Rainbows	3-5-6
40	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Trojans	3-4-6
41	Rainbows	1-2-5	def.	Trojans	3-4-6
42	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
43	Trojans	2-3-4	def.	Rainbows	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Antoine Screve '16 Hans Henken '15 Kieran Chung '15 Will La Dow '18	John Cannistraro '17 Nicolette Obel '17 Haley Kirk '15 Samantha Steele '16
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	Joseph Schiff '17 Stephen Long '17 Sterling Henken '18	Neil Stapleton '18 Kristina Miller '17 Ginger Luckey '16
University of Southern California	Trojans	John Coakley '16 Kendall Sanson '15 Matthew Hecht '16	Paul Chyz '18 Hank Huang '17 Hope Modugno '18
University of Hawaii	Rainbows	Chuck Eaton '17 Giacomo Paoletti '15 Jeremy Hitchcock '17	Cuylar Zimmerman '19 Mackenzie Cook '17 Patrick Manuel '16
University of California at Berkeley	Bears	Andrew Solomon '18 Eric Witte '17 Henry Keenan '18 Matthew Thomas '17	Lauren Rehbein '16 Chun Ting Justin Lai '16 Jacob Basinger '18 Katie Hitchcock '16
California State University Long Beach	49ers	Mark Ryan '15 Sunny Scarbrough '17 Tyler Webb '15	Ari Zeen '17 Nicholas Santos '15 Anna Rubino '16
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang	David Cornella '17 Graham Gooding '16 Joseph Lausten '18	Kathryn Cornella '16 Oliver Kunz '15 Kathryn Eberle '17
University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	Brian Maclean '18 Nicholas Weis '15 Samuel Heller '15	Philip Tagatac '17 Daniel Diaz '15 Caressa Brewer '18
California State University Monterey Bay	Otters	Alicia Ward '18 Olivia Gibbons '17 Peter Schmidt '18	Lauren Orloff '16 Casey Weisenseel '15 Kylee Walterman '17

Conditions — 05/03/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 60% · Pressure 1012.3 hPa

Temperature

62°F

↑ 65°F ↓ 56°F

Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.8 kn

avg · max 7.7 kn

Gusts to 20.2 kn

From SW (235°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover16% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1012.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Stanford — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Stanford in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled fleet-race days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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