California State University Long Beach '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.51 (fleet 2.09) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–14 (18%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 3–5 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 0–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (17 matches) the record is 3–14 against 4.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-03 | 2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.98 | 0.84 | 3–5 | 4.0 | −1.15 | 0.9 | 96% |
| 2014-05-03 | 2014 Carter Ford Team Race | skipper | 1.36 | -1.64 | 0–9 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.9 | 2.65 |
| South Designate | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.6 | 2.56 |
| Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 5.7 | — |
| PJ Wenner Memorial Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.8 | 1.75 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.2 | 2.99 |
| Long Beach Gold Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.9 | 2.24 |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.0 | 2.10 |
| 2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| 2015 PCCSC Coed Championships | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.1 | 1.82 |
| Fall 2014 Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 2.7 | 2.98 |
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.2 | 1.79 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 11.5 | 3.06 |
| Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.9 | 2.22 |
| Pacific Coast Champs - 2 Div | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.9 | 2.22 |
| Spring 2014 Season | |||||
| South 4 | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.8 | 2.09 |
| South 3 | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.0 | 3.30 |
| PCCSC South 5 Designate | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.1 | 1.55 |
| Jeff Simon, South 1 | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.0 | 1.22 |
| Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 7.4 | — |
| 2014 Carter Ford Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2013 Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.0 | 1.18 |
| Frosh-Soph Regatta | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.9 | 1.65 |
| Fall Dinghy Championship - JV | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.8 | 1.81 |
| Spring 2013 Season | |||||
| South 5 Designate | Skipper | A, B | 10 | 18.8 | 0.19 |
| South 3 | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.2 | 1.11 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta South 2 | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.7 | 0.37 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta South 1 | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.8 | 0.92 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
