PCCSC South 5 Designate

HostSouthern Cal
Date04/12/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	36	24	60
2	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 1	64	29	93
3	Santa Clara University	Broncos	50	52	102
4	University of Southern California	Trojans	56	53	109
5	California State University Long Beach	49ers 1	45	83	128
6	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gaucho Women	76	59	135
7	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 2	71	109	180
8	University of California at San Diego	Tritons 1	93	95	188
9	California State University Long Beach	49ers 2	84	111	195
10	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 3	148	77	225
11	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang 1	111	129	240
12	University of California at Irvine	Anteaters 1	129	125	254
13	University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slug's 1	178	80	258
14	University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears 1	142	133	275
15	University of California at Davis	Aggies	178	136	314
16	California State University Monterey Bay	Otters	143	203	346
17	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 4	224	133	357
18	Arizona State University	Sun Devils	134	236	370
19	University of California at San Diego	Tritons 2	123	247	370
20	University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears 2	196	194	390
21	University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins 1	222	188	410
22	University of California at Irvine	Anteaters 2	235	180	415
23	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang 2	234	189	423
24	University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears 3	193	235	428
25	University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slug's 2	218	223	441
26	University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins 2	251	215	466
27	Long Beach City College	Vikings	202	290	492
28	University of California at San Diego	Tritons 3	247	257	504

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Stanford University	Cardinal	8	1	2	6	1	1	1	2	13	1	36	Scott Buckstaff '17 Katie Walker '14
California State University Long Beach	49ers 1	2	3	4	1	4	4	8	12	4	3	45	Mark Ryan '15 [1-10] Anna Rubino '16 [1-6] Nicholas Santos '15 [7-10]
Santa Clara University	Broncos	3	5	3	9	3	6	4	6	9	2	50	Brandon Wood '14 Melissa Shadden '17
University of Southern California	Trojans	1	12	5	2	7	2	6	9	6	6	56	Cameron Hutcheson '14 Aditya Radhakrishna '17
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 1	11	6	1	3	5	OCS	3	1	1	4	64	Ian Stokes '16 Natalie Davidson '16
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 2	5	4	12	4	2	3	7	10	16	8	71	Cobi Allen '16 Grant Rickon '16
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gaucho Women	4	2	8	8	OCS	5	2	5	2	11	76	Ginger Luckey '16 Marina Fennell '17
California State University Long Beach	49ers 2	7	8	7	16	6	10	9	4	12	5	84	Sunny Scarbrough '17 [1-6] Alex Newton '16 [7-10] Sarah Costa '15 [1-6]
University of California at San Diego	Tritons 1	6	10	6	5	8	OCS	5	3	11	10	93	Nicolas Delfino '16 Cheyenne Wright '16
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang 1	10	14	9	7	9	8	12	22	3	17	111	Kiersten Mcdonald '15 Kathryn Cornella '16
University of California at San Diego	Tritons 2	25	9	11	10	11	7	13	17	7	13	123	Brett Farrell '17 Hayley Chong '17
University of California at Irvine	Anteaters 1	12	16	13	19	10	11	17	7	8	16	129	Nicholas Weis '15 [1-10] Deanne Buckman '15 [1-6] Kate Andersen '15 [7-10]
Arizona State University	Sun Devils	15	15	18	11	18	9	10	8	23	7	134	Spenser Branch '14 Chad Hardgrove '15
University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears 1	19	7	17	12	12	14	20	15	14	12	142	Dylan Skeffington '14 Katheryn Bell '16
California State University Monterey Bay	Otters	9	11	21	18	15	16	15	13	10	15	143	Mark Hurdle '13 Olivia Gibbons '17
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 3	20	18	10	14	14	OCS	18	11	5	9	148	Keenan Chung '18 Madisson Thomas '17
University of California at Davis	Aggies	17	17	20	13	22	17	16	18	18	20	178	Daniel Baldassare '15 Hayley Palmer '17
University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slug's 1	26	25	15	15	13	13	14	14	22	21	178	Alex Verdoia '15 Altea Hines '16
University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears 3	13	20	19	21	19	18	24	21	20	18	193	Alexandre Mutricy '17 Winter Martin '17
University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears 2	18	13	25	17	17	15	19	19	27	26	196	Ian Markowitz '17 Zachary Brown '17
Long Beach City College	Vikings	16	22	23	22	DNS	DNS	11	16	15	19	202	Steven Hopkins '17 Elizabeth Ackerman '17
University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slug's 2	14	23	14	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNF	20	17	14	218	Mike Mccarthy '14 Patrick Boyden '14
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins 1	22	26	24	20	20	12	27	23	21	27	222	Gabriel Monti '15 Kylie Sullivan '17
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 4	28	27	16	27	16	20	25	24	19	22	224	Anthony Helm '15 Hannah Robinson '16
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang 2	23	21	22	25	21	21	26	26	26	23	234	Andreas Balslev '17 Kevin Mcmanus '17
University of California at Irvine	Anteaters 2	24	19	26	24	23	19	23	27	25	25	235	James Heller '15 Asher Gradvohl '15
University of California at San Diego	Tritons 3	21	28	28	26	24	22	21	25	28	24	247	Nils-Erik Rundquist '17 Jared Buchanan '17
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins 2	27	24	27	23	25	23	22	28	24	28	251	John Beutter '17 Erin Kelly '17

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Stanford University	Cardinal	2	2	4	1	1	1	3	2	2	6	24	Holly Tullo '17 Noelle Herring '16
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 1	1	1	7	3	2	11	1	1	1	1	29	Stephen Long '17 Samantha Solem '15
Santa Clara University	Broncos	11	4	3	6	7	6	2	3	8	2	52	Francesca Cappellini '16 Madeleine Fawcett '17
University of Southern California	Trojans	8	7	6	2	3	4	12	4	3	4	53	John Coakley '16 Hollis Barth '16
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gaucho Women	3	6	12	8	4	2	7	8	4	5	59	Olivia Godfrey '17 Alexandra Levine '16
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 3	7	10	1	4	5	7	4	13	12	14	77	Joseph Schiff '17 Jacqueline Wetzel '16
University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slug's 1	10	16	8	5	6	3	10	10	9	3	80	Ian Spilman '15 Emma Shaw '14
California State University Long Beach	49ers 1	6	3	5	OCS	9	9	5	5	5	7	83	John Hill '13 [1-10] Nicholas Santos '15 [1-6] Anna Rubino '16 [7-10]
University of California at San Diego	Tritons 1	18	5	2	10	14	5	14	11	6	10	95	John Olson '14 Elsa Felgar '16
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 2	5	9	9	13	15	10	9	14	14	11	109	Gregory Coumes '17 Noah Eckhous '15
California State University Long Beach	49ers 2	14	18	11	11	10	12	6	6	11	12	111	Tyler Webb '15 [1-10] Ruta Bandziulis '15 [1-6] Camille Hambly '15 [7-10]
University of California at Irvine	Anteaters 1	19	14	10	7	11	8	17	16	15	8	125	Samuel Heller '15 Kathryn Benight '15
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang 1	9	17	13	9	8	13	13	7	18	22	129	Graham Gooding '16 Greg Kushnir '18
University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears 1	12	13	14	16	12	14	19	17	7	9	133	Saul Rosen '15 Linda Ge '17
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 4	13	8	15	14	18	16	8	9	16	16	133	Kevin Leddy '17 Paige Tripp '17
University of California at Davis	Aggies	4	12	16	15	17	17	18	12	10	15	136	Lucas Murray '15 No Show
University of California at Irvine	Anteaters 2	21	11	18	12	13	15	20	18	27	25	180	Kate Andersen '15 [1-6] Daniel Diaz '15 [7-10] Daniel Diaz '15 [1-6] Philip Tagatac '17 [7-10]
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins 1	16	21	20	17	21	18	16	20	21	18	188	Sarah Wyman '17 Justina Leo '15
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang 2	20	15	17	20	20	21	22	21	20	13	189	Joseph Lausten '18 [1-10] Justin Mcalister '17 [1-6] Ariana Schaupp '15 [7-10]
University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears 2	15	20	19	18	16	22	21	22	17	24	194	Ted Chavkin '14 Samantha Marsland '15
California State University Monterey Bay	Otters	22	24	21	21	23	20	23	19	13	17	203	Christina Stege '14 Lauren Orloff '16
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins 2	24	25	22	22	19	19	15	23	23	23	215	Kimberly Alcorn '15 Louise Lehman '14
University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slug's 2	17	19	DNS	DNF	DNS	DNS	11	15	25	20	223	Kip Wanaselja '16 Alexander Brocchini '17
University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears 3	23	22	24	23	26	26	24	26	22	19	235	William Brown '17 Julie Martin '14
Arizona State University	Sun Devils	26	26	23	19	22	23	26	24	26	21	236	Conor Mcgee '17 Kylie Jenkins '16
University of California at San Diego	Tritons 2	25	23	25	DNS	24	24	27	25	19	26	247	Samuel Rohrbach '17 Jason Barr '17
University of California at San Diego	Tritons 3	27	27	26	24	25	25	25	27	24	27	257	David Luu '17 Grant Lin '17
Long Beach City College	Vikings	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	290	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.280+0.28

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (18 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
Arizona State University Sun Devils	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40
University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 1	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23
University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 2	123	123	123	123	123	123	123	123	123	123
University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 3	241	241	241	241	241	241	241	241	241	241
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2	103	103	103	103	103	103	103	103	103	103
California State University Long Beach 49ers 1	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
California State University Long Beach 49ers 2	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Long Beach City College Vikings	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41
California State University Monterey Bay Otters	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Santa Clara University Broncos	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19
University of Southern California Trojans	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37
Stanford University Cardinal	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
University of California at Davis Aggies	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47
University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25
University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28
University of California at San Diego Tritons 1	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29
University of California at San Diego Tritons 2	292	292	292	292	292	292	292	292	292	292
University of California at San Diego Tritons 3	295	295	295	295	295	295	295	295	295	295
University of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3	131	131	131	131	131	131	131	131	131	131
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4	132	132	132	132	132	132	132	132	132	132
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 1	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 2	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B
Arizona State University Sun Devils	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40
University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 1	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23
University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 2	123	123	123	123	123	123	123	123	123	123
University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 3	241	241	241	241	241	241	241	241	241	241
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2	103	103	103	103	103	103	103	103	103	103
California State University Long Beach 49ers 1	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
California State University Long Beach 49ers 2	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Long Beach City College Vikings	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41
California State University Monterey Bay Otters	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Santa Clara University Broncos	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19
University of Southern California Trojans	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37
Stanford University Cardinal	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
University of California at Davis Aggies	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47
University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25
University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28
University of California at San Diego Tritons 1	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29
University of California at San Diego Tritons 2	292	292	292	292	292	292	292	292	292	292
University of California at San Diego Tritons 3	295	295	295	295	295	295	295	295	295	295
University of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3	131	131	131	131	131	131	131	131	131	131
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4	132	132	132	132	132	132	132	132	132	132
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 1	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 2	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Arizona State University	Spenser Branch '14	Chad Hardgrove '15
Sun Devils	Conor Mcgee '17	Kylie Jenkins '16
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Kiersten Mcdonald '15	Kathryn Cornella '16
Mustang 1	Graham Gooding '16	Greg Kushnir '18
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Andreas Balslev '17	Kevin Mcmanus '17
Mustang 2	Joseph Lausten '18 [1-10]	Justin Mcalister '17 [1-6] Ariana Schaupp '15 [7-10]
California State University Long Beach	Mark Ryan '15 [1-10]	Anna Rubino '16 [1-6] Nicholas Santos '15 [7-10]
49ers 1	John Hill '13 [1-10]	Nicholas Santos '15 [1-6] Anna Rubino '16 [7-10]
California State University Long Beach	Sunny Scarbrough '17 [1-6] Alex Newton '16 [7-10]	Sarah Costa '15 [1-6]
49ers 2	Tyler Webb '15 [1-10]	Ruta Bandziulis '15 [1-6] Camille Hambly '15 [7-10]
California State University Monterey Bay	Mark Hurdle '13	Olivia Gibbons '17
Otters	Christina Stege '14	Lauren Orloff '16
Long Beach City College	Steven Hopkins '17	Elizabeth Ackerman '17
Vikings	No Show	No Show
Santa Clara University	Brandon Wood '14	Melissa Shadden '17
Broncos	Francesca Cappellini '16	Madeleine Fawcett '17
Stanford University	Scott Buckstaff '17	Katie Walker '14
Cardinal	Holly Tullo '17	Noelle Herring '16
University of California at Berkeley	Dylan Skeffington '14	Katheryn Bell '16
Golden Bears 1	Saul Rosen '15	Linda Ge '17
University of California at Berkeley	Ian Markowitz '17	Zachary Brown '17
Golden Bears 2	Ted Chavkin '14	Samantha Marsland '15
University of California at Berkeley	Alexandre Mutricy '17	Winter Martin '17
Golden Bears 3	William Brown '17	Julie Martin '14
University of California at Davis	Daniel Baldassare '15	Hayley Palmer '17
Aggies	Lucas Murray '15	No Show
University of California at Irvine	Nicholas Weis '15 [1-10]	Deanne Buckman '15 [1-6] Kate Andersen '15 [7-10]
Anteaters 1	Samuel Heller '15	Kathryn Benight '15
University of California at Irvine	James Heller '15	Asher Gradvohl '15
Anteaters 2	Kate Andersen '15 [1-6] Daniel Diaz '15 [7-10]	Daniel Diaz '15 [1-6] Philip Tagatac '17 [7-10]
University of California at Los Angeles	Gabriel Monti '15	Kylie Sullivan '17
Bruins 1	Sarah Wyman '17	Justina Leo '15
University of California at Los Angeles	John Beutter '17	Erin Kelly '17
Bruins 2	Kimberly Alcorn '15	Louise Lehman '14
University of California at San Diego	Nicolas Delfino '16	Cheyenne Wright '16
Tritons 1	John Olson '14	Elsa Felgar '16
University of California at San Diego	Brett Farrell '17	Hayley Chong '17
Tritons 2	Samuel Rohrbach '17	Jason Barr '17
University of California at San Diego	Nils-Erik Rundquist '17	Jared Buchanan '17
Tritons 3	David Luu '17	Grant Lin '17
University of California at Santa Barbara	Ginger Luckey '16	Marina Fennell '17
Gaucho Women	Olivia Godfrey '17	Alexandra Levine '16
University of California at Santa Barbara	Ian Stokes '16	Natalie Davidson '16
Gauchos 1	Stephen Long '17	Samantha Solem '15
University of California at Santa Barbara	Cobi Allen '16	Grant Rickon '16
Gauchos 2	Gregory Coumes '17	Noah Eckhous '15
University of California at Santa Barbara	Keenan Chung '18	Madisson Thomas '17
Gauchos 3	Joseph Schiff '17	Jacqueline Wetzel '16
University of California at Santa Barbara	Anthony Helm '15	Hannah Robinson '16
Gauchos 4	Kevin Leddy '17	Paige Tripp '17
University of California at Santa Cruz	Alex Verdoia '15	Altea Hines '16
Banana Slug's 1	Ian Spilman '15	Emma Shaw '14
University of California at Santa Cruz	Mike Mccarthy '14	Patrick Boyden '14
Banana Slug's 2	Kip Wanaselja '16	Alexander Brocchini '17
University of Southern California	Cameron Hutcheson '14	Aditya Radhakrishna '17
Trojans	John Coakley '16	Hollis Barth '16

Conditions — 04/12/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 61% · Pressure 1013.2 hPa

Temperature

61°F

↑ 64°F ↓ 56°F

Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.2 kn

avg · max 9.7 kn

Gusts to 18.5 kn

From SW (222°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover49% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1013.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 10 kn · SW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Southern Cal: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.14)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.15

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.26 ± 0.06)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Southern Cal by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Southern Cal, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu