University of California at Santa Barbara '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.84 (fleet 2.53) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 31–28 (53%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 4 | 24–28 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 7–0 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (59 matches) the record is 31–28 against 32.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-29 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships | skipper | 2.50 | 0.42 | 2–13 | 3.8 | −2.08 | 2.4 | 99% |
| 2015-05-03 | 2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.22 | 4.63 | 9–2 | 7.6 | +2.41 | 2.0 | 18% |
| 2015-03-28 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.49 | 1.96 | 8–10 | 10.0 | −0.53 | 0.8 | 90% |
| 2015-02-28 | 2015 McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.26 | 2.83 | 5–3 | 4.3 | +0.57 | 0.3 | 43% |
| 2014-03-01 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.81 | 4.81 | 7–0 | 6.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.6 | 64% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.8 | 2.23 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 14.2 | 1.51 |
| Mustang Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.3 | 3.19 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships | Skipper | TR | 15 | 13% | — |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 1.4 | 4.43 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.3 | 2.29 |
| Long Beach Gold Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.7 | 3.44 |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.5 | 3.50 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| 2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 11 | 82% | — |
| 2015 PCCSC Coed Championships | Skipper | B | 3 | 2.3 | 4.30 |
| 2015 McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Pacific Coast Champs JV | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.3 | 2.83 |
| UCSD Frosh/Soph | Skipper | B | 11 | 2.8 | 3.16 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| South 4 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.3 | 3.07 |
| South 3 | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.8 | 2.84 |
| PCCSC South 5 Designate | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.7 | 2.31 |
| North 2 | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.5 | 1.87 |
| North 1 | Skipper | B | 5 | 9.8 | 1.25 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.9 | 1.35 |
| Frosh-Soph Regatta | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.8 | 1.62 |
| Fall Dinghy Championship - JV | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.4 | 3.13 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
