Cal Team Race

HostBerkeley
Date03/01/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears 1	6–1
2	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 1	7–0
3	University of California at Davis	Aggies	5–2
4	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 2	4–3
5	University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears 2	1–6
6	California State University Monterey Bay	Otters	3–4
7	University of California at San Diego	Tritons	1–6
8	University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	1–6

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 1,991 team race matches sailed before 2014-03-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 25 of 28 matches (89%) with a log-loss of 0.276 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.13 ± 0.34: a typical event, more orderly than 56% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 1	2	4.92 home +0.31	Jacob Hiew / Lauren Rehbein Travis Benton / Ethan Pawson Dylan Skeffington / Katheryn Bell	85%	6–1 (86%)	+0.0
2	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	1	5.90 school −0.07	Cobi Allen / Samantha Solem 2.05 Remy Margerum / Kevin Leddy Joseph Schiff / Jacqueline Wetzel	94%	7–0 (100%)	+0.4
3	University of California at Davis Aggies	4	2.24	Daniel Baldassare / Hayley Palmer Lucas Murray / Natasha Jarett William Emberley / Desmond Krueger	49%	5–2 (71%)	+1.5
4	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	3	3.17 school −0.07	Hayden Christensen / Ellen Gable Lucas Ryder / Noah Eckhous Gregory Coumes / Paige Tripp	64%	4–3 (57%)	−0.5
5	University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 2	6	1.78 home +0.31	Tyler Hogan / Samantha Marsland 0–4 Eric Witte / Lauren Stefanowski 0–4 Kelly Goodman / Greg Martin 0–4 Saul Rosen / Lauren Stefanowski 1–2 Ian Markowitz / Zachary Brown 1–2 Ted Chavkin / Samantha Marsland 1–2	42%	1–6 (14%)	−1.9
6	California State University Monterey Bay Otters	5	1.78	Jacob Garcia / Kevin Critchlow Olivia Gibbons / Levi Matsushima 2–3 Mark Hurdle / Christina Stege 3–2 Mark Hurdle / Lauren Orloff 0–2 Olivia Gibbons / Claudia Marino 1–1	42%	3–4 (43%)	+0.0
7	University of California at San Diego Tritons	7	-0.07	Christopher Keefe / Alex Sinclair Brett Farrell / Hayley Chong Jiachao Yang / Samuel Rohrbach	16%	1–6 (14%)	−0.1
8	University of California at Irvine Anteaters	8	-0.89 school +0.60	Bridget Steiner / Keith Branson Ellen Suder / Alex Heide James Heller / Yuhui Jin	7%	1–6 (14%)	+0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	5.90	8.90	7–0	6.6	≥+3.00	0.6	64%
3	University of California at Davis Aggies	2.24	4.15	5–2	3.5	+1.91	2.0	12%
8	University of California at Irvine Anteaters	-0.89	0.07	1–6	0.5	+0.96	0.4	43%
1	University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 1	4.92	4.99	6–1	6.0	+0.07	0.0	79%
6	California State University Monterey Bay Otters	1.78	1.82	3–4	3.0	+0.04	0.0	69%
7	University of California at San Diego Tritons	-0.07	-0.26	1–6	1.1	−0.19	0.0	80%
4	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	3.17	2.60	4–3	4.5	−0.57	0.2	87%
5	University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 2	1.78	-0.78	1–6	2.9	−2.55	3.3	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Cobi Allen	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.05	5.05	7–0	6.6	≥+3.00	0.6	64%
Remy Margerum	University of California at Santa Barbara	1.68	4.68	7–0	6.6	≥+3.00	0.6	64%
Joseph Schiff	University of California at Santa Barbara	1.81	4.81	7–0	6.6	≥+3.00	0.6	64%
Daniel Baldassare	University of California at Davis	0.47	2.38	5–2	3.5	+1.91	2.0	12%
Lucas Murray	University of California at Davis	0.62	2.53	5–2	3.5	+1.91	2.0	12%
William Emberley	University of California at Davis	0.70	2.61	5–2	3.5	+1.91	2.0	12%
Bridget Steiner	University of California at Irvine	-0.73	0.23	1–6	0.5	+0.96	0.4	43%
Ellen Suder	University of California at Irvine	-1.14	-0.18	1–6	0.5	+0.96	0.4	43%
James Heller	University of California at Irvine	-0.08	0.88	1–6	0.5	+0.96	0.4	43%
Jacob Hiew	University of California at Berkeley	1.33	1.40	6–1	6.0	+0.07	0.0	79%
Travis Benton	University of California at Berkeley	1.96	2.03	6–1	6.0	+0.07	0.0	79%
Dylan Skeffington	University of California at Berkeley	0.87	0.93	6–1	6.0	+0.07	0.0	79%
Mark Hurdle	California State University Monterey Bay	0.89	0.92	3–4	3.0	+0.04	0.0	69%
Olivia Gibbons	California State University Monterey Bay	1.07	1.11	3–4	3.0	+0.04	0.0	69%
Jacob Garcia	California State University Monterey Bay	-0.50	-0.46	3–4	3.0	+0.04	0.0	69%
Christopher Keefe	University of California at San Diego	-0.56	-0.75	1–6	1.1	−0.19	0.0	80%
Brett Farrell	University of California at San Diego	0.69	0.50	1–6	1.1	−0.19	0.0	80%
Jiachao Yang	University of California at San Diego	-0.61	-0.81	1–6	1.1	−0.19	0.0	80%
Hayden Christensen	University of California at Santa Barbara	0.46	-0.11	4–3	4.5	−0.57	0.2	87%
Lucas Ryder	University of California at Santa Barbara	0.83	0.27	4–3	4.5	−0.57	0.2	87%
Gregory Coumes	University of California at Santa Barbara	1.49	0.92	4–3	4.5	−0.57	0.2	87%
Saul Rosen	University of California at Berkeley	0.69	-0.09	1–2	1.2	−0.78	0.1	95%
Ian Markowitz	University of California at Berkeley	0.76	-0.03	1–2	1.2	−0.78	0.1	95%
Ted Chavkin	University of California at Berkeley	-0.39	-1.18	1–2	1.2	−0.78	0.1	95%
Tyler Hogan	University of California at Berkeley	0.50	-2.50	0–4	1.7	≤−3.00	4.0	>99%
Eric Witte	University of California at Berkeley	1.16	-1.84	0–4	1.7	≤−3.00	4.0	>99%
Kelly Goodman	University of California at Berkeley	-0.25	-3.25	0–4	1.7	≤−3.00	4.0	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 1	University of California at San Diego Tritons	99%
1	2	University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 2	University of California at Irvine Anteaters	94%
1	3	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	California State University Monterey Bay Otters	98%
1	4	University of California at Davis Aggies	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	28%	upset
1	5	University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 1	University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 2	96%
1	6	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	University of California at San Diego Tritons	100%
1	7	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	University of California at Irvine Anteaters	98%
1	8	University of California at Davis Aggies	California State University Monterey Bay Otters	61%
1	9	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 1	73%
1	10	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 2	79%
1	11	University of California at Davis Aggies	University of California at San Diego Tritons	91%
1	12	California State University Monterey Bay Otters	University of California at Irvine Anteaters	93%
1	13	University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 1	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	85%
1	14	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	University of California at Davis Aggies	97%
1	15	California State University Monterey Bay Otters	University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 2	52%
1	16	University of California at Irvine Anteaters	University of California at San Diego Tritons	31%	upset
1	17	University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 1	University of California at Davis Aggies	94%
1	18	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	California State University Monterey Bay Otters	80%
1	19	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	University of California at Irvine Anteaters	100%
1	20	University of California at San Diego Tritons	University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 2	14%	upset
1	21	University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 1	California State University Monterey Bay Otters	96%
1	22	University of California at Davis Aggies	University of California at Irvine Anteaters	96%
1	23	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	University of California at San Diego Tritons	96%
1	24	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 2	98%
1	25	University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 1	University of California at Irvine Anteaters	100%
1	26	California State University Monterey Bay Otters	University of California at San Diego Tritons	87%
1	27	University of California at Davis Aggies	University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 2	61%
1	28	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	94%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	1	1	Aggies	2	2	Otters	Tritons	Anteaters
University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 1	7–7	✕	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	11–3	W	✕	W	✕	W	W	W	W
University of California at Davis Aggies	5–2	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	11–3	W	✕	W	✕	W	W	W	W
University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 2	7–7	✕	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W
California State University Monterey Bay Otters	3–4	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of California at San Diego Tritons	1–6	W	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L
University of California at Irvine Anteaters	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Golden Bears 1	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
2	Golden Bears 2	1-2-5	def.	Anteaters	3-4-6
3	Gauchos 1	1-2-3	def.	Otters	4-5-6
4	Aggies	1-3-4	def.	Gauchos 2	2-5-6
5	Golden Bears 1	1-2-3	def.	Golden Bears 2	4-5-6
6	Gauchos 1	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
7	Gauchos 2	1-2-5	def.	Anteaters	3-4-6
8	Aggies	1-2-4	def.	Otters	3-5-6
9	Gauchos 1	1-2-3	def.	Golden Bears 1	4-5-6
10	Gauchos 2	1-2-4	def.	Golden Bears 2	3-5-6
11	Aggies	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
12	Otters	1-2-5	def.	Anteaters	3-4-6
13	Golden Bears 1	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos 2	3-4-6
14	Gauchos 1	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
15	Otters	1-2-3	def.	Golden Bears 2	4-5-6
16	Anteaters	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
17	Golden Bears 1	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
18	Gauchos 2	1-2-3	def.	Otters	4-5-6
19	Gauchos 1	1-2-3	def.	Anteaters	4-5-6
20	Tritons	1-3-4	def.	Golden Bears 2	2-5-6
21	Golden Bears 1	1-2-3	def.	Otters	4-5-6
22	Aggies	1-2-3	def.	Anteaters	4-5-6
23	Gauchos 2	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
24	Gauchos 1	1-2-3	def.	Golden Bears 2	4-5-6
25	Golden Bears 1	1-2-3	def.	Anteaters	4-5-6
26	Otters	1-4-5	def.	Tritons	2-3-6
27	Aggies	2-3-4	def.	Golden Bears 2	1-5-6
28	Gauchos 1	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos 2	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears 1	Dylan Skeffington '14 Jacob Hiew '15 Travis Benton '14	Katheryn Bell '16 Lauren Rehbein '16 Ethan Pawson '14
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 1	Cobi Allen '16 Joseph Schiff '17 Remy Margerum '17	Samantha Solem '15 Jacqueline Wetzel '16 Kevin Leddy '17
University of California at Davis	Aggies	Daniel Baldassare '15 Lucas Murray '15 William Emberley '16	Hayley Palmer '17 Natasha Jarett '14 Desmond Krueger '14
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 2	Gregory Coumes '17 Hayden Christensen '17 Lucas Ryder '16	Paige Tripp '17 Ellen Gable '17 Noah Eckhous '15
University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears 2	Eric Witte '17 Ian Markowitz '17 Kelly Goodman '14 Saul Rosen '15 Ted Chavkin '14 Tyler Hogan '17	Lauren Stefanowski '17 Zachary Brown '17 Greg Martin '15 Samantha Marsland '15
California State University Monterey Bay	Otters	Jacob Garcia '15 Mark Hurdle '13 Olivia Gibbons '17	Kevin Critchlow '16 Christina Stege '14 Lauren Orloff '16 Levi Matsushima '17 Claudia Marino '17
University of California at San Diego	Tritons	Brett Farrell '17 Christopher Keefe '14 Jiachao Yang '15	Hayley Chong '17 Alex Sinclair '16 Samuel Rohrbach '17
University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	Bridget Steiner '14 Ellen Suder '16 James Heller '15	Keith Branson '15 Alex Heide '15 Yuhui Jin '15

Conditions — 03/01/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 69% · Pressure 1002.7 hPa

Temperature

59°F

↑ 65°F ↓ 52°F

Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.2 kn

avg · max 9.7 kn

Gusts to 27.2 kn

From ESE (110°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover71% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1002.7 hPa Rain0.11 in

What this breeze does at Berkeley — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Berkeley in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Berkeley by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled fleet-race days at Berkeley).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu