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# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 9 15 24
2 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 11 14 25
3 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 4 18 9 27
4 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 3 15 14 29
5 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 28 36 64
6 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 50 31 81
7 Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 46 41 87
8 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 51 49 100
9 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 55 47 102
10 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 58 51 109
11 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 60 50 110
12 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 55 59 114
13 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 1 57 59 116
14 California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 61 56 117
15 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 43 84 127
16 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 2 64 73 137
17 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 84 77 161
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 2 3 2 1 1 9 Antoine Screve '16
Helena Scutt '14
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 1 1 1 4 4 11 Oliver Toole '14
Carolyn Ortel '14
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 3 5 2 3 2 3 15 Kieran Chung '15
Cally Tullo '17
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 4 3 4 6 3 2 18 Mateo Vargas '14
Tally Buckstaff '14
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 4 5 5 9 5 28 Stephen Long '17
Kristina Miller '17
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 10 9 4 8 12 43 John Coakley '16
Tianyue Huang '16
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 9 7 12 10 8 46 John Connor Bathen '14 [1-5]
Courtney Newell '17 [1-2, 5]
Alexandra Cotroneo '17 [3-4]
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 6 10 14 13 7 50 John Hill '13 [1-2, 5]
Sunny Scarbrough '17 [3-4]
Anna Rubino '16 [1-2, 5]
Nicholas Santos '15 [3-4]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 11 16 10 5 9 51 Cobi Allen '16
Gregory Coumes '17
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 7 15 7 15 11 55 Stephen Katz '16
Cassidy Patton '17
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 8 8 11 11 17 55 Travis Benton '14
Ethan Pawson '14
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 1 13 6 8 16 14 57 Daniel Baldassare '15
Mackenzie Perkins '17
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 12 13 15 12 6 58 Ian Spilman '15
Emma Shaw '14
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 16 11 13 7 13 60 David Cornella '17
Kathryn Cornella '16
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 15 14 16 6 10 61 Mark Hurdle '13
Olivia Gibbons '17
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 2 14 12 9 14 15 64 William Emberley '16
Desmond Krueger '14
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 17 17 17 17 16 84 Christopher Keefe '14
Hayley Chong '17
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 4 1 2 3 2 1 9 Kevin Laube '14
Samantha Steele '16
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 3 2 3 4 3 2 14 Axel Sly '16
John Cannistraro '17
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 3 1 1 4 5 14 Hans Henken '15
Mary Vangelos '17
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 4 5 2 1 3 15 Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk '17
Cam Hutton '14
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 5 4 6 9 7 31 Mark Ryan '15
Sarah Costa '15
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 6 6 7 7 10 36 Grant Rickon '16
Paige Tripp '17
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 10 7 5 6 13 41 Dylan Ale '15 [1-2, 5]
Francesca Cappellini '16 [3-4]
Madeleine Fawcett '17 [1-2, 5]
Christopher Iliff '16 [3-4]
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 7 8 8 10 14 47 Andrew Gunnell '17
Elisabeth Mckee '17
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 15 10 11 5 8 49 Joseph Schiff '17
Natalie Davidson '16
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 11 11 13 11 4 50 Greg Kushnir '18
Justin Mcalister '17
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 9 9 9 13 11 51 Alex Verdoia '15
Altea Hines '16
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 12 12 14 12 6 56 Parker Smith '17
Levi Matsushima '17
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 1 8 16 12 8 15 59 Lucas Murray '15
Natasha Jarett '14
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 13 13 10 14 9 59 Joshua Goldberg '14
Lauren Rehbein '16
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 2 16 14 16 15 12 73 Ryan Wilkerson '14 [1-5]
Alex Yeghiazarian '16 [1-2, 5]
Michelle Moua '17 [3-4]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 14 15 15 16 17 77 Jiachao Yang '15 [1-5]
Samuel Rohrbach '17 [1-2, 5]
Mark Jones '15 [3-4]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 17 17 17 17 16 84 No Show
David Sadakane '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (35 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Golden Bears11335
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers22446
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang668810
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers33557
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters44668
Santa Clara UniversitySanta Clara University Broncos55779
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans1616113
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 1779911
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 288101012
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 399111113
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 41010121214
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 11111131315
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 21717224
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons151517172
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 11212141416
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 21313151517
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's141416161

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Golden Bears22446
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers33557
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang779911
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers44668
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters55779
Santa Clara UniversitySanta Clara University Broncos668810
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans1717224
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 188101012
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 299111113
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 31010121214
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 41111131315
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 11212141416
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 211335
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons1616113
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 11313151517
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2141416161
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's151517172
School / Team SkipperCrew
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. David Cornella '17 Kathryn Cornella '16
Mustang Greg Kushnir '18 Justin Mcalister '17
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Stephen Katz '16 Cassidy Patton '17
Keelhaulers Andrew Gunnell '17 Elisabeth Mckee '17
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach John Hill '13 [1-2, 5]
Sunny Scarbrough '17 [3-4]		 Anna Rubino '16 [1-2, 5]
Nicholas Santos '15 [3-4]
49ers Mark Ryan '15 Sarah Costa '15
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Mark Hurdle '13 Olivia Gibbons '17
Otters Parker Smith '17 Levi Matsushima '17
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University John Connor Bathen '14 [1-5] Courtney Newell '17 [1-2, 5]
Alexandra Cotroneo '17 [3-4]
Broncos Dylan Ale '15 [1-2, 5]
Francesca Cappellini '16 [3-4]		 Madeleine Fawcett '17 [1-2, 5]
Christopher Iliff '16 [3-4]
Stanford University Stanford University Oliver Toole '14 Carolyn Ortel '14
Cardinal 1 Hans Henken '15 Mary Vangelos '17
Stanford University Stanford University Antoine Screve '16 Helena Scutt '14
Cardinal 2 Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk '17 Cam Hutton '14
Stanford University Stanford University Kieran Chung '15 Cally Tullo '17
Cardinal 3 Axel Sly '16 John Cannistraro '17
Stanford University Stanford University Mateo Vargas '14 Tally Buckstaff '14
Cardinal 4 Kevin Laube '14 Samantha Steele '16
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Travis Benton '14 Ethan Pawson '14
Golden Bears Joshua Goldberg '14 Lauren Rehbein '16
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Daniel Baldassare '15 Mackenzie Perkins '17
Aggies 1 Lucas Murray '15 Natasha Jarett '14
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis William Emberley '16 Desmond Krueger '14
Aggies 2 Ryan Wilkerson '14 [1-5] Alex Yeghiazarian '16 [1-2, 5]
Michelle Moua '17 [3-4]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Christopher Keefe '14 Hayley Chong '17
Tritons Jiachao Yang '15 [1-5] Samuel Rohrbach '17 [1-2, 5]
Mark Jones '15 [3-4]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Stephen Long '17 Kristina Miller '17
Gauchos 1 Grant Rickon '16 Paige Tripp '17
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Cobi Allen '16 Gregory Coumes '17
Gauchos 2 Joseph Schiff '17 Natalie Davidson '16
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Ian Spilman '15 Emma Shaw '14
Banana Slug's Alex Verdoia '15 Altea Hines '16
University of Southern California University of Southern California John Coakley '16 Tianyue Huang '16
Trojans No Show David Sadakane '16

Conditions — 02/08/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 98%  ·  Pressure 1019.7 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.5 kn
avg  ·  max 11.0 kn
Gusts to 26.2 kn
From SSW (194°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity98% Pressure1019.7 hPa Rain0.19 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Stanford: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.12)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.03 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →