Stanford University '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.96 (fleet 4.08) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 133–55 (71%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 3 | 33–18 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 5 | 55–17 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 16–6 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 4 | 29–14 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (142 matches) the record is 101–41 against 101.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-28 | LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | skipper | 4.00 | 3.47 | 13–9 | 14.9 | −0.53 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 2016-04-24 | PCCSC Team Race Championship Carter Ford Trophy | skipper | 4.00 | 7.00 | 5–0 | 5.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 96% |
| 2016-03-05 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.98 | 4.10 | 15–9 | 14.4 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 49% |
| 2015-05-29 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships | skipper | 4.05 | 3.71 | 17–8 | 18.4 | −0.34 | 0.4 | 83% |
| 2015-05-03 | 2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 4.04 | 7.04 | 6–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 98% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 4.06 | 3.92 | 11–4 | 11.4 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2015-03-28 | 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 4.10 | 4.20 | 19–5 | 18.6 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2014-03-01 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.97 | 4.44 | 15–6 | 13.2 | +0.47 | 0.6 | 26% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
