Bob Bavier Team Race

HostCharleston
Date03/05/2016
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Georgetown University	Hoyas	20–4
2	College of Charleston	Cougars	20–4
3	Stanford University	Cardinal	15–9
4	Yale University	Bulldogs	11–13
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	14–9
6	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	10–13
7	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	10–13
8	Roger Williams University	Hawks	9–14
9	Eckerd College	Tritons	4–19
10	University of South Florida	Bulls	4–19

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 6,222 team race matches sailed before 2016-03-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 91 of 117 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.517 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.07 ± 0.18: a typical event, more orderly than 35% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	3	12.23	Sean Golden / Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga 3.95 Nevin Snow / Meaghan Macrae 4.45 Aj Reiter / Bettina Redway 3.81	67%	20–4 (83%)	+3.9
2	College of Charleston Cougars	1	12.57 school +0.38	Jake Reynolds / Chloe Dapp 3.93 Charles Rees / Grace Mccarthy 4.06 Ryan Davidson / Emily Stuart 3.97 14–0 Reed Baldridge / Bayley Davidson 3.97 6–4	75%	20–4 (83%)	+2.1
3	Stanford University Cardinal	5	11.88 school +0.56	Antoine Screve / Samantha Steele 3.98 Will La Dow / Nicolette Obel 3.87 8–8 Axel Sly / Sarah Lucas 3.52 7–9 Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk / Sarah Placek 3.28 8–0 Will La Dow / John Cannistraro 3.86 7–1	60%	15–9 (62%)	+0.6
4	Yale University Bulldogs	4	11.98 school +0.21	Ian Barrows / Natalya Doris 4.31 7–13 Malcolm Lamphere / Clara Robertson 3.64 6–10 Joseph Kiss / Chandler Gregoire 3.84 4–12 Nicholas Baird / Chandler Gregoire 7–1 Malcolm Lamphere / Natalya Doris 3.69 4–0 Joseph Kiss / Clara Robertson 3.83 4–0 Nicholas Baird / Clara Robertson 1–3	63%	11–13 (46%)	−4.2
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2	11.79 school +0.66	Edmund Cooper / Mariah Leffingwell 3.65 Alexander Curtiss / Shelby Jacobs 4.25 Markus Edegran / Kaitlyn Noreen	68%	14–9 (61%)	−1.7
6	Old Dominion University Monarchs	8	10.24 school −0.34	Esteban Forrer / Gabriel Smith 3.94 Joseph David / Katelyn Talley 3.14 Augie Dale / Kaylie Gallagher 3.46	37%	10–13 (43%)	+1.5
7	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	7	10.23 school −0.11	Michael Popp / Jack Lahey 3.27 Gary Prieto / Molly Hanson 3.07 Patrick Snow / Aaron Hull 3.77	37%	10–13 (43%)	+1.5
8	Roger Williams University Hawks	6	11.27 school +0.09	Stewart Draheim / Megan Roach 3.63 Connor Corgard / Sara Swanson 3.85 Mackenzie Bryan / Breanne Baldino 3.67	58%	9–14 (39%)	−4.4
9	Eckerd College Tritons	9	9.13 school −0.17	Jason D'Agostino / Sarah Hanson 3.25 Timothy Siemers / Jessica Resnick 3.16 Andrew Schoene / Heidi Carlson 2.69	19%	4–19 (17%)	−0.3
10	University of South Florida Bulls	10	8.73	Andrew Baird / Isabella Uribe 2.81 Sean Cornell / Megan Hostetter 3.34 Michael Trebilcock / Sarah Smith 2.27	13%	4–19 (17%)	+1.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Georgetown University	12.23	13.27	20–4	16.1	+1.04	2.7	5%
2	College of Charleston	12.57	13.15	20–4	17.9	+0.58	0.8	22%
6	Old Dominion University	10.24	10.64	10–13	8.5	+0.40	0.4	29%
10	University of South Florida	8.73	9.13	4–19	3.0	+0.40	0.3	34%
7	U. S. Naval Academy	10.23	10.61	10–13	8.5	+0.38	0.4	30%
3	Stanford University	11.88	12.01	15–9	14.4	+0.12	0.0	49%
9	Eckerd College	9.13	9.03	4–19	4.3	−0.10	0.0	67%
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	11.79	11.35	14–9	15.7	−0.43	0.5	87%
4	Yale University	11.98	11.09	11–13	15.2	−0.89	2.7	98%
8	Roger Williams University	11.27	10.17	9–14	13.4	−1.11	3.5	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Ryan Davidson	College of Charleston	3.97	6.97	14–0	10.4	≥+3.00	6.0	1%
Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk	Stanford University	3.28	6.28	8–0	6.6	≥+3.00	2.2	20%
Sean Golden	Georgetown University	3.95	4.98	20–4	16.1	+1.04	2.7	5%
Nevin Snow	Georgetown University	4.45	5.49	20–4	16.1	+1.04	2.7	5%
Aj Reiter	Georgetown University	3.81	4.84	20–4	16.1	+1.04	2.7	5%
Jake Reynolds	College of Charleston	3.93	4.52	20–4	17.9	+0.58	0.8	22%
Charles Rees	College of Charleston	4.06	4.64	20–4	17.9	+0.58	0.8	22%
Esteban Forrer	Old Dominion University	3.94	4.34	10–13	8.5	+0.40	0.4	29%
Joseph David	Old Dominion University	3.14	3.54	10–13	8.5	+0.40	0.4	29%
Augie Dale	Old Dominion University	3.46	3.86	10–13	8.5	+0.40	0.4	29%
Andrew Baird	University of South Florida	2.81	3.21	4–19	3.0	+0.40	0.3	34%
Sean Cornell	University of South Florida	3.34	3.74	4–19	3.0	+0.40	0.3	34%
Michael Trebilcock	University of South Florida	2.27	2.68	4–19	3.0	+0.40	0.3	34%
Michael Popp	U. S. Naval Academy	3.27	3.65	10–13	8.5	+0.38	0.4	30%
Gary Prieto	U. S. Naval Academy	3.07	3.46	10–13	8.5	+0.38	0.4	30%
Patrick Snow	U. S. Naval Academy	3.77	4.16	10–13	8.5	+0.38	0.4	30%
Antoine Screve	Stanford University	3.98	4.10	15–9	14.4	+0.12	0.0	49%
Jason D'Agostino	Eckerd College	3.25	3.15	4–19	4.3	−0.10	0.0	67%
Timothy Siemers	Eckerd College	3.16	3.06	4–19	4.3	−0.10	0.0	67%
Andrew Schoene	Eckerd College	2.69	2.59	4–19	4.3	−0.10	0.0	67%
Axel Sly	Stanford University	3.52	3.29	7–9	7.8	−0.23	0.1	75%
Edmund Cooper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.65	3.21	14–9	15.7	−0.43	0.5	87%
Alexander Curtiss	St. Mary's College of Maryland	4.25	3.82	14–9	15.7	−0.43	0.5	87%
Nicholas Baird	Yale University	3.65	2.79	8–4	9.7	−0.85	1.1	95%
Reed Baldridge	College of Charleston	3.97	3.09	6–4	7.5	−0.88	1.0	94%
Ian Barrows	Yale University	4.31	3.26	7–13	11.4	−1.05	3.3	99%
Joseph Kiss	Yale University	3.84	2.74	8–12	12.1	−1.10	3.2	99%
Connor Corgard	Roger Williams University	3.85	2.75	9–14	13.4	−1.11	3.5	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Roger Williams University	Old Dominion University	74%
1	2	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	17%	upset
1	3	Stanford University	Georgetown University	43%	upset
1	4	University of South Florida	Eckerd College	37%	upset
1	5	College of Charleston	Yale University	59%
1	6	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	53%
1	7	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	72%
1	8	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Eckerd College	94%
1	9	Yale University	Stanford University	52%
1	10	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	98%
1	11	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	11%	upset
1	12	Eckerd College	Old Dominion University	23%	upset
1	13	Yale University	Roger Williams University	64%
1	14	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of South Florida	96%
1	15	College of Charleston	Stanford University	62%
1	16	Georgetown University	Eckerd College	96%
1	17	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	85%
1	18	Old Dominion University	University of South Florida	84%
1	19	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	61%
1	20	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	68%
1	21	Yale University	Eckerd College	92%
1	22	Georgetown University	University of South Florida	97%
1	23	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	83%
1	24	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	82%
1	25	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	77%
1	26	Yale University	University of South Florida	95%
1	27	Stanford University	Eckerd College	93%
1	28	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	62%
1	29	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	75%
1	30	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	91%
1	31	Stanford University	University of South Florida	95%
1	32	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	59%
1	33	Roger Williams University	Eckerd College	90%
1	34	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	88%
1	35	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	91%
1	36	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	54%
1	37	University of South Florida	Roger Williams University	7%	upset
1	38	Old Dominion University	Yale University	13%	upset
1	39	U. S. Naval Academy	Eckerd College	75%
1	40	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	42%	upset
1	41	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Roger Williams University	63%
1	42	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	85%
1	43	U. S. Naval Academy	University of South Florida	82%
1	44	Georgetown University	Yale University	54%
1	45	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	97%
2	46	Roger Williams University	Old Dominion University	74%
2	47	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	83%
2	48	Stanford University	Georgetown University	43%	upset
2	49	Eckerd College	University of South Florida	60%
2	50	College of Charleston	Yale University	62%
2	51	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	50%	upset
2	52	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	72%
2	53	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Eckerd College	93%
2	54	Yale University	Stanford University	52%
2	55	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	98%
2	56	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	88%
2	57	Old Dominion University	Eckerd College	75%
2	58	Yale University	Roger Williams University	67%
2	59	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of South Florida	95%
2	60	College of Charleston	Stanford University	65%
2	61	Georgetown University	Eckerd College	96%
2	62	U. S. Naval Academy	Yale University	15%	upset
2	63	Old Dominion University	University of South Florida	81%
2	64	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	61%
2	65	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	69%
2	66	Yale University	Eckerd College	92%
2	67	Georgetown University	University of South Florida	97%
2	68	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	81%
2	69	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	17%	upset
2	70	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	79%
2	71	Yale University	University of South Florida	94%
2	72	Stanford University	Eckerd College	93%
2	73	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	60%
2	74	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	73%
2	75	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	92%
2	76	Stanford University	University of South Florida	95%
2	77	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Yale University	40%	upset
2	78	Eckerd College	Roger Williams University	11%	upset
2	79	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	88%
2	80	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	91%
2	81	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Stanford University	47%	upset
2	82	Roger Williams University	University of South Florida	92%
2	83	Old Dominion University	Yale University	12%	upset
2	84	U. S. Naval Academy	Eckerd College	75%
2	85	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	40%	upset
2	86	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Roger Williams University	64%
2	87	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	85%
2	88	University of South Florida	U. S. Naval Academy	19%	upset
2	89	Georgetown University	Yale University	54%
2	90	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	97%
3	112	College of Charleston	Yale University	63%
3	113	Stanford University	Georgetown University	44%	upset
3	114	College of Charleston	Stanford University	66%
3	115	Georgetown University	Yale University	54%
3	116	Stanford University	Yale University	47%	upset
3	117	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	39%	upset
4	91	Georgetown University	Stanford University	57%
4	92	College of Charleston	Yale University	63%
4	93	Georgetown University	Yale University	54%
4	94	College of Charleston	Stanford University	66%
4	95	Yale University	Stanford University	53%
4	96	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	40%	upset
5	97	U. S. Naval Academy	Roger Williams University	27%	upset
5	98	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Eckerd College	93%
5	99	University of South Florida	Old Dominion University	20%	upset
5	100	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	82%
5	101	Roger Williams University	University of South Florida	92%
5	102	Old Dominion University	Eckerd College	74%
5	103	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of South Florida	95%
5	104	U. S. Naval Academy	Eckerd College	75%
5	105	Old Dominion University	Roger Williams University	26%	upset
5	106	Eckerd College	University of South Florida	58%
5	107	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	36%	upset
5	108	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	52%
5	109	Roger Williams University	Eckerd College	89%
5	110	U. S. Naval Academy	University of South Florida	80%
5	111	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	83%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Cougars	Cardinal	Bulldogs	Seahawks	Monarchs	Midshipmen	Hawks	Tritons	Bulls
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–2	✕	W	L	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	8–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	7–2	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	6–3	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	3–6	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	L	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–5	W	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W	L
Eckerd College Tritons	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L
University of South Florida Bulls	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Cougars	Cardinal	Bulldogs	Seahawks	Monarchs	Midshipmen	Hawks	Tritons	Bulls
Georgetown University Hoyas	8–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	8–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	6–3	W	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	4–5	L	L	W	✕	L	L	L	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6–3	L	L	W	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	5–4	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W	L	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–7	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	L
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	L	W
Eckerd College Tritons	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
University of South Florida Bulls	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Cougars	Cardinal	Bulldogs
Georgetown University Hoyas	2–1	✕	W	L	W
College of Charleston Cougars	2–1	L	✕	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	2–1	W	L	✕	W
Yale University Bulldogs	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Cougars	Cardinal	Bulldogs
Georgetown University Hoyas	3–0	✕	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	2–1	L	✕	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	0–3	L	L	✕	L
Yale University Bulldogs	1–2	L	L	W	✕

Round 5

Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Monarchs	Midshipmen	Hawks	Tritons	Bulls
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–3	L	✕	L	W	W	L
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–2	W	L	L	✕	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of South Florida Bulls	1–4	L	W	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Monarchs	1-4-6
2	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
3	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
4	Bulls	1-3-6	def.	Tritons	2-4-5
5	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
6	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
7	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
8	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
9	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Cardinal	2-5-6
10	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
11	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
12	Tritons	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
13	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
14	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
15	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
16	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
17	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
18	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
19	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
20	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
21	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
22	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
23	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
24	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
25	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
26	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
27	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
28	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
29	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
30	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
31	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
32	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
33	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
34	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
35	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
36	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
37	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
38	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
39	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
40	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
41	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
42	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Monarchs	2-3-6
43	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
44	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
45	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
46	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
47	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
48	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
49	Tritons	1-3-4	def.	Bulls	2-5-6
50	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
51	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
52	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
53	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
54	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
55	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
56	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
57	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
58	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
59	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
60	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
61	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
62	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
63	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
64	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
65	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
66	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
67	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
68	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
69	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
70	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
71	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
72	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
73	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
74	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
75	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
76	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
77	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
78	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
79	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
80	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
81	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
82	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
83	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
84	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
85	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
86	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
87	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Monarchs	2-3-6
88	Bulls	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
89	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
90	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
112	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
113	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
114	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Cardinal	2-4-6
115	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
116	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6 DNF
117	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
91	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
92	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
93	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
94	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
95	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
96	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
97	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
98	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
99	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
100	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
101	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
102	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
103	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
104	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
105	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
106	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
107	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
108	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
109	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
110	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
111	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Aj Reiter '17 Nevin Snow '16 Sean Golden '16	Bettina Redway '16 Meaghan Macrae '18 Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga '16
College of Charleston	Cougars	Charles Rees '16 Jake Reynolds '16 Reed Baldridge '16 Ryan Davidson '16	Grace Mccarthy '18 Chloe Dapp '17 Bayley Davidson '17 Emily Stuart '16
Stanford University	Cardinal	Antoine Screve '16 Axel Sly '16 Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk '17 Will La Dow '18	Samantha Steele '16 Sarah Lucas '18 Sarah Placek '18 John Cannistraro '17 Nicolette Obel '17
Yale University	Bulldogs	Ian Barrows '17 Joseph Kiss '17 Malcolm Lamphere '18 Nicholas Baird '19	Natalya Doris '17 Chandler Gregoire '17 Clara Robertson '17
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Alexander Curtiss '16 Edmund Cooper '17 Markus Edegran '16	Shelby Jacobs '17 Mariah Leffingwell '16 Kaitlyn Noreen '16
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Augie Dale '18 Esteban Forrer '16 Joseph David '16	Kaylie Gallagher '16 Gabriel Smith '17 Katelyn Talley '16
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Gary Prieto '18 Michael Popp '16 Patrick Snow '17	Molly Hanson '17 Jack Lahey '16 Aaron Hull '16
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Connor Corgard '16 Mackenzie Bryan '18 Stewart Draheim '16	Sara Swanson '16 Breanne Baldino '16 Megan Roach '18
Eckerd College	Tritons	Andrew Schoene '18 Jason D'Agostino '17 Timothy Siemers '16	Heidi Carlson '16 Sarah Hanson '16 Jessica Resnick '16
University of South Florida	Bulls	Andrew Baird '18 Michael Trebilcock '17 Sean Cornell '18	Isabella Uribe '18 Sarah Smith '16 Megan Hostetter '19

Conditions — 03/05/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 64% · Pressure 1022.0 hPa

Temperature

56°F

↑ 60°F ↓ 45°F

Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.7 kn

avg · max 5.9 kn

Gusts to 14.0 kn

From E (82°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover48% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1022.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Charleston — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Charleston in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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