Old Dominion University '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.05 (fleet 4.24) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 113–210 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 5 | 45–39 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 5 | 22–48 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 6 | 21–78 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 2–9 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 4 | 23–36 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 18 graded regattas (278 matches) the record is 96–182 against 95.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.9). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 9 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 18 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-28 | LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | skipper | 4.08 | 4.18 | 9–8 | 8.8 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2016-04-09 | MAISA Team Race Championship/Capt. Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.96 | 5.09 | 10–4 | 7.3 | +1.13 | 2.1 | 8% |
| 2016-03-26 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.95 | 3.52 | 10–11 | 11.1 | −0.43 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2016-03-05 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.94 | 4.34 | 10–13 | 8.5 | +0.40 | 0.4 | 29% |
| 2016-02-27 | 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 4.03 | 1.64 | 6–3 | 8.0 | −2.39 | 3.6 | >99% |
| 2015-04-11 | Captain "Joe" Prosser Trophy | skipper | 4.03 | 4.09 | 6–8 | 5.8 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2015-03-28 | 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 4.07 | 4.14 | 7–16 | 6.7 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 53% |
| 2015-03-21 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.98 | 5.00 | 6–9 | 3.8 | +1.02 | 1.7 | 10% |
| 2015-03-14 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 4.00 | 3.05 | 1–8 | 1.9 | −0.95 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 2015-03-07 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 4.07 | 2.74 | 2–7 | 3.3 | −1.33 | 1.2 | 97% |
| 2014-05-31 | APS Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.89 | 2.92 | 4–11 | 5.5 | −0.97 | 1.0 | 95% |
| 2014-04-05 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.42 | 4.64 | 10–11 | 6.0 | +1.23 | 3.5 | 2% |
| 2014-03-22 | 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.74 | 0.74 | 0–21 | 1.7 | ≤−3.00 | 2.4 | >99% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.88 | 4.36 | 5–10 | 4.0 | +0.49 | 0.4 | 35% |
| 2014-03-08 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 3.84 | 3.12 | 1–8 | 1.7 | −0.71 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 2014-03-01 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.89 | 3.30 | 1–17 | 1.7 | −0.59 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2013-11-09 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.35 | 2.61 | 2–9 | 3.0 | −0.74 | 0.5 | 90% |
| 2013-04-06 | Captain Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.56 | 3.42 | 6–8 | 6.3 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Hinman Trophy (U.S. Team Racing Championship) | Selected | TR | — | — | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.2 | 4.42 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Gill Coed National Championship | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.9 | 4.23 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.5 | 4.99 |
| MAISA Team Race Championship/Capt. Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 23 | 44% | — |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 17 | 6.5 | 4.14 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 48% | — |
| 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.6 | 3.42 |
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 18 | 9.9 | 3.69 |
| St. Mary's College of MD Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 4.9 | 4.64 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.1 | 4.68 |
| Coed Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.3 | 4.54 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.1 | 4.20 |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.5 | 4.12 |
| Captain "Joe" Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.7 | 3.85 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.3 | 4.47 |
| Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.7 | 4.24 |
| 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 23 | 30% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.4 | 4.04 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.1 | 5.03 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 15 | 10.7 | 3.60 |
| Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.8 | 3.54 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 12.5 | 3.38 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.2 | 4.88 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.9 | 3.98 |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 21 | 48% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| Gill National Championship Finals | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.0 | 4.33 |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-West | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.4 | 4.74 |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 6% | — |
| APS Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 4.4 | 4.59 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.4 | 3.78 |
| 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 11 | 3.9 | 4.16 |
| SMC Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.7 | 3.05 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.8 | 2.97 |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.5 | 3.63 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 20 | 6.8 | 3.85 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 18% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.0 | 3.66 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.6 | 4.38 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.2 | 2.98 |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| College Sailing Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | B | 13 | 4.2 | 4.47 |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 22 | 59% | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.4 | 3.75 |
| Captain Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 4.2 | 4.15 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.1 | 3.03 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.1 | 3.03 |
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.6 | 3.60 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.2 | 4.30 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.9 | 4.28 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.1 | 3.82 |
| Nevin's Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.5 | 3.19 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.0 | 3.55 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.0 | 2.68 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
