St. Mary's Team Race

HostSt. Mary's
Date03/08/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	14–0
2	College of Charleston	Cougars	10–4
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	9–5
4	Boston College	Eagles	8–6
5	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	7–7
6	Roger Williams University	Hawks	5–9
7	Fordham University	Rams	2–7
7	Harvard University	Crimson	2–7
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	2–7
10	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	1–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 2,294 team race matches sailed before 2014-03-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 49 of 60 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.428 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.33 ± 0.26: an orderly event, more orderly than 78% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	12.16 school +0.20	Mateo Vargas / Tally Buckstaff 3.95 Kevin Laube / Yuri Namikawa 4.17 Oliver Toole / Nicolette Obel 3.79	76%	14–0 (100%)	+3.4
2	College of Charleston Cougars	4	11.47 school +0.06	Nick Johnstone / Septima Mcadams 3.53 Jake Reynolds / Alicia Blumenthal 4.16 10–2 Ryan Davidson / Rebekah Schiff 3.58 7–0 Ryan Davidson / Emily Stuart 3.87 3–2 Jake Reynolds / Rebekah Schiff 3.70 0–2 Ryan Davidson / Roy Shaw 3.66 0–2	60%	10–4 (71%)	+1.7
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2	12.02 school +0.34, home +0.31	Joshua Greenslade / Nicole Deangeli 3.95 Fletcher Sims / Kelley Merryman 4.07 John Wallace / Allison Shane 3.29 7–4 Jacob La Dow / Allison Shane 3.40 2–1	71%	9–5 (64%)	−1.0
4	Boston College Eagles	3	11.89	William Bailey / Katherine Wysocki 3.71 Erika Reineke / Elizabeth Barnard 4.08 Raul Rios / Shelby Hamilton 4.04 8–5 Raul Rios / Domenic Bove 4.00 0–1	68%	8–6 (57%)	−1.6
5	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6	10.73 school +0.16	Michael Grove / Alexandra Asuncion 3.88 Michael Popp / Chelsea Smith 3.42 Patrick Snow / Emma Ferris 3.18	44%	7–7 (50%)	+0.9
6	Roger Williams University Hawks	5	11.04 school +0.13	Connor Corgard / Abby Preston 3.59 Henry Vogel / Wendy Reuss 3.42 William Macdonald / Breanne Baldino 3.94 2–6 William Macdonald / James Bartlein 3.78 1–3 William Macdonald / Alexander Rudkin 3.77 2–0	51%	5–9 (36%)	−2.1
7	Fordham University Rams	9	9.00 school +0.21	Will Holz / Emma Huntress 2.78 Alecsander Tayler / Adelaide Ferguson 2.68 Connor Godfrey / Connor Murphy 3.13 2–3 Connor Godfrey / Madeleine Sims 3.19 0–4	20%	2–7 (22%)	+0.2
7	Harvard University Crimson	7	9.55 school −0.23	Gram Slattery / Julia Lord 2.96 Andrew Mollerus / Sydney Karnovsky 3.37 Michael Drumm / Luke O'Connor 3.25 0–5 Marek Zaleski / Emma Wheeler 3.25 2–2	29%	2–7 (22%)	−0.6
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	8	9.18 school +0.07	Eddie Cox / Jane Rew 3.36 Elliott Morrill / Julia Oak 3.03 William Godfrey / Marnie Merrill 2.68	24%	2–7 (22%)	−0.1
10	Old Dominion University Monarchs	10	8.85 school −0.45	Jacob Spracher / Katelyn Talley 2.68 Esteban Forrer / Julia Wiesner 3.84 Joseph David / Colin Voigt 2.74	19%	1–8 (11%)	−0.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Stanford University	12.16	15.16	14–0	10.6	≥+3.00	5.6	2%
2	College of Charleston	11.47	12.14	10–4	8.3	+0.67	0.8	23%
5	U. S. Naval Academy	10.73	11.08	7–7	6.1	+0.35	0.2	39%
7	Fordham University	9.00	9.13	2–7	1.8	+0.13	0.0	61%
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	9.18	9.07	2–7	2.1	−0.10	0.0	70%
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	12.02	11.63	9–5	10.0	−0.39	0.3	83%
7	Harvard University	9.55	9.06	2–7	2.6	−0.49	0.2	84%
4	Boston College	11.89	11.28	8–6	9.6	−0.61	0.7	91%
10	Old Dominion University	8.85	8.14	1–8	1.7	−0.71	0.3	87%
6	Roger Williams University	11.04	10.19	5–9	7.1	−0.84	1.2	95%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Mateo Vargas	Stanford University	3.95	6.95	14–0	10.6	≥+3.00	5.6	2%
Kevin Laube	Stanford University	4.17	7.17	14–0	10.6	≥+3.00	5.6	2%
Oliver Toole	Stanford University	3.79	6.79	14–0	10.6	≥+3.00	5.6	2%
Jake Reynolds	College of Charleston	4.16	4.83	10–4	8.3	+0.67	0.8	23%
Ryan Davidson	College of Charleston	3.58	4.25	10–4	8.3	+0.67	0.8	23%
Nick Johnstone	College of Charleston	3.53	4.20	10–4	8.3	+0.67	0.8	23%
Michael Grove	U. S. Naval Academy	3.88	4.23	7–7	6.1	+0.35	0.2	39%
Michael Popp	U. S. Naval Academy	3.42	3.78	7–7	6.1	+0.35	0.2	39%
Patrick Snow	U. S. Naval Academy	3.18	3.53	7–7	6.1	+0.35	0.2	39%
Marek Zaleski	Harvard University	3.25	3.40	2–2	1.9	+0.15	0.0	68%
Will Holz	Fordham University	2.78	2.91	2–7	1.8	+0.13	0.0	61%
Alecsander Tayler	Fordham University	2.68	2.81	2–7	1.8	+0.13	0.0	61%
Connor Godfrey	Fordham University	3.13	3.26	2–7	1.8	+0.13	0.0	61%
Eddie Cox	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.36	3.25	2–7	2.1	−0.10	0.0	70%
Elliott Morrill	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.03	2.93	2–7	2.1	−0.10	0.0	70%
William Godfrey	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.68	2.57	2–7	2.1	−0.10	0.0	70%
Jacob La Dow	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.40	3.26	2–1	2.1	−0.13	0.0	78%
Joshua Greenslade	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.95	3.56	9–5	10.0	−0.39	0.3	83%
Fletcher Sims	St. Mary's College of Maryland	4.07	3.68	9–5	10.0	−0.39	0.3	83%
John Wallace	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.29	2.83	7–4	7.9	−0.46	0.3	85%
Gram Slattery	Harvard University	2.96	2.47	2–7	2.6	−0.49	0.2	84%
Andrew Mollerus	Harvard University	3.37	2.88	2–7	2.6	−0.49	0.2	84%
William Bailey	Boston College	3.71	3.10	8–6	9.6	−0.61	0.7	91%
Erika Reineke	Boston College	4.08	3.47	8–6	9.6	−0.61	0.7	91%
Raul Rios	Boston College	4.04	3.43	8–6	9.6	−0.61	0.7	91%
Jacob Spracher	Old Dominion University	2.68	1.97	1–8	1.7	−0.71	0.3	87%
Esteban Forrer	Old Dominion University	3.84	3.12	1–8	1.7	−0.71	0.3	87%
Joseph David	Old Dominion University	2.74	2.03	1–8	1.7	−0.71	0.3	87%
William Macdonald	Roger Williams University	3.94	3.09	5–9	7.1	−0.84	1.2	95%
Connor Corgard	Roger Williams University	3.59	2.74	5–9	7.1	−0.84	1.2	95%
Henry Vogel	Roger Williams University	3.42	2.58	5–9	7.1	−0.84	1.2	95%
Michael Drumm	Harvard University	3.25	0.25	0–5	0.8	≤−3.00	1.1	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	82%
1	2	Harvard University	Old Dominion University	63%
1	3	Roger Williams University	Fordham University	90%
1	4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	College of Charleston	58%
1	5	Stanford University	Boston College	57%
1	6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Harvard University	43%	upset
1	7	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	85%
1	8	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	94%
1	9	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	74%
1	10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Boston College	55%
1	11	Harvard University	Fordham University	62%
1	12	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	92%
1	13	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	81%
1	14	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	96%
1	15	Boston College	Roger Williams University	68%
1	16	College of Charleston	Fordham University	93%
1	17	Stanford University	Harvard University	93%
1	18	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	94%
1	19	U. S. Naval Academy	Roger Williams University	40%	upset
1	20	Boston College	Old Dominion University	95%
1	21	Stanford University	College of Charleston	76%
1	22	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	95%
1	23	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	83%
1	24	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	58%
1	25	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	76%
1	26	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	54%
1	27	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	60%
1	28	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	46%	upset
1	29	U. S. Naval Academy	Harvard University	75%
1	30	Boston College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	94%
1	31	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	26%	upset
1	32	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	96%
1	33	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	66%
1	34	Fordham University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	46%	upset
1	35	Boston College	Harvard University	90%
1	36	Roger Williams University	Old Dominion University	89%
1	37	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	78%
1	38	Stanford University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	95%
1	39	College of Charleston	Harvard University	85%
1	40	Fordham University	Boston College	6%	upset
1	41	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	87%
1	42	Roger Williams University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	85%
1	43	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Harvard University	91%
1	44	Stanford University	Fordham University	96%
1	45	College of Charleston	Boston College	39%	upset
2	46	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	45%	upset
2	47	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	67%
2	48	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	74%
2	49	St. Mary's College of Maryland	College of Charleston	58%
2	50	Boston College	Roger Williams University	69%
2	51	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	80%
2	52	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	63%
2	53	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	22%	upset
2	54	Stanford University	Boston College	57%
2	55	U. S. Naval Academy	Roger Williams University	42%	upset
2	56	College of Charleston	Boston College	40%	upset
2	57	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	54%
2	58	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	75%
2	59	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Roger Williams University	74%
2	60	Stanford University	College of Charleston	73%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Cougars	Seahawks	Eagles	Midshipmen	Hawks	Rams	Crimson	Statesmen	Monarchs
Stanford University Cardinal	9–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	7–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	7–2	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	5–4	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–4	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	2–7	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	L
Harvard University Crimson	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Cougars	Seahawks	Eagles	Midshipmen	Hawks
Stanford University Cardinal	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	3–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2–3	L	W	✕	L	L	W
Boston College Eagles	3–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Statesmen	2-5-6
2	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
3	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
4	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
5	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
6	Statesmen	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
7	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
8	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
9	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
10	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
11	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
12	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
13	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
14	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
15	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
16	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
17	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
18	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
19	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
20	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
21	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
22	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
23	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
24	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
25	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6 DNF
26	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
27	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
28	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
29	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
30	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
31	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
32	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
33	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
34	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
35	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
36	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
37	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
38	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
39	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
40	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
41	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
42	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
43	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
44	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
45	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
46	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
47	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
48	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
49	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
50	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
51	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
52	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
53	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
54	Cardinal	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
55	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
56	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
57	Cardinal	1-3-6	def.	Seahawks	2-4-5
58	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
59	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
60	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Kevin Laube '14 Mateo Vargas '14 Oliver Toole '14	Yuri Namikawa '14 Tally Buckstaff '14 Nicolette Obel '17
College of Charleston	Cougars	Jake Reynolds '16 Nick Johnstone '15 Ryan Davidson '16	Alicia Blumenthal '15 Rebekah Schiff '16 Septima Mcadams '16 Emily Stuart '16 Roy Shaw '14
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Fletcher Sims '14 Jacob La Dow '15 John Wallace '14 Joshua Greenslade '14	Kelley Merryman '14 Allison Shane '15 Nicole Deangeli '14
Boston College	Eagles	Erika Reineke '17 Raul Rios '16 William Bailey '15	Elizabeth Barnard '15 Shelby Hamilton '14 Domenic Bove '15 Katherine Wysocki '15
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Michael Grove '14 Michael Popp '16 Patrick Snow '17	Alexandra Asuncion '15 Chelsea Smith '14 Emma Ferris '15
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Connor Corgard '16 Henry Vogel '15 William Macdonald '15	Abby Preston '15 Wendy Reuss '15 Alexander Rudkin '14 Breanne Baldino '16 James Bartlein '15
Fordham University	Rams	Alecsander Tayler '17 Connor Godfrey '16 Will Holz '17	Adelaide Ferguson '17 Connor Murphy '16 Madeleine Sims '16 Emma Huntress '16
Harvard University	Crimson	Andrew Mollerus '16 Gram Slattery '15 Marek Zaleski '16 Michael Drumm '15	Sydney Karnovsky '16 Julia Lord '17 Emma Wheeler '17 Luke O'Connor '14
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Eddie Cox '16 Elliott Morrill '15 William Godfrey '16	Jane Rew '14 Julia Oak '14 Marnie Merrill '15
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Esteban Forrer '16 Jacob Spracher '15 Joseph David '16	Julia Wiesner '14 Katelyn Talley '16 Colin Voigt '15

Conditions — 03/08/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 65% · Pressure 1014.2 hPa

Temperature

46°F

↑ 55°F ↓ 34°F

Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.8 kn

avg · max 6.5 kn

Gusts to 11.5 kn

From WSW (257°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover32% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1014.2 hPa

What this breeze does at St. Mary's — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at St. Mary's in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.07)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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