Harvard University '16
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 3.11 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 28 | Fall 2013 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.82 (fleet 3.89) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 50–43 (54%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 3–2 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 16–5 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 7–2 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 3 | 20–17 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 4–17 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (72 matches) the record is 46–26 against 43.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-02 | The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.66 | 3.32 | 3–2 | 3.4 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2015-04-11 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.80 | 3.80 | 4–2 | 4.0 | +0.00 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.81 | 4.60 | 8–2 | 6.7 | +0.79 | 0.7 | 28% |
| 2015-03-28 | Jan T. Friis Team Race | skipper | 3.83 | 5.66 | 4–1 | 2.5 | +1.82 | 1.9 | 14% |
| 2014-11-08 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.55 | 4.28 | 7–2 | 5.9 | +0.73 | 0.6 | 32% |
| 2014-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 3.14 | 3.39 | 10–8 | 9.2 | +0.24 | 0.1 | 43% |
| 2014-03-22 | Team Race Invitational | skipper | 3.22 | 2.34 | 8–7 | 10.4 | −0.88 | 1.5 | 96% |
| 2014-03-08 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2–2 | 1.9 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.1 | 4.12 |
| The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.5 | 3.45 |
| 81st Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.9 | 4.31 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 17 | 7.0 | 3.73 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 12.4 | 2.38 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.3 | 4.05 |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.4 | — |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.0 | 3.90 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | B | 15 | 6.3 | 4.04 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.7 | 3.82 |
| Coed Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.8 | 3.44 |
| 74th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.5 | 3.50 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 3.8 | 4.48 |
| Jan T. Friis Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.1 | 3.50 |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 18 | 56% | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.7 | 3.81 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | C | 9 | 6.4 | 3.72 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship | Skipper | A | 11 | 12.4 | 3.20 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 4.9 | 4.04 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | D | 15 | 6.9 | 3.66 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.5 | 3.42 |
| Hoyt Trophy | Crew | A | 2 | 13.5 | — |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.6 | 3.09 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.7 | 3.68 |
| 74th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.0 | 4.21 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 4.2 | 4.19 |
| Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 18 | 56% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.3 | 3.02 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| RI States, 2nd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.6 | 3.63 |
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 8.6 | 2.96 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | D | 20 | 5.5 | 3.88 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 17 | 9.8 | 2.90 |
| Harvard Invitational 2 | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.3 | 4.86 |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.8 | 3.74 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | C | 12 | 9.1 | 2.90 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 21 | 19% | — |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 17 | 6.2 | 3.32 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Central Series 1 | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.2 | 1.09 |
| Oberg | Skipper | C | 15 | 7.7 | 2.68 |
| Nevin's Trophy | Skipper | C | 16 | 10.4 | 2.64 |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.9 | 3.16 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.2 | 3.15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
