The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy

HostMIT
Date04/02/2016
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ/NC Firefly
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	13–0
2	Boston College	Eagles	11–2
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	9–4
4	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	8–5
5	Brown University	Bears	8–5
6	Dartmouth College	Big Green	8–5
7	Harvard University	Crimson	8–5
8	Roger Williams University	Hawks	6–7
9	Stanford University	Cardinal	6–7
10	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	5–8
11	Boston University	Terriers	4–9
12	Tufts University	Jumbos	3–10
13	University of Vermont	Catamounts	1–12
14	University of Rhode Island	Rams	1–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 6,929 team race matches sailed before 2016-04-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 69 of 91 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.482 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.27 ± 0.23: an orderly event, more orderly than 72% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	11.84 school +0.14	Ian Barrows / Meredith Megarry 4.34 11–0 Malcolm Lamphere / Chandler Gregoire 3.61 11–0 Nicholas Baird / Charlotte Belling 3.76 6–0 Joseph Kiss / Clara Robertson 3.70 5–0 Ian Barrows / Clara Robertson 4.15 2–0 Joseph Kiss / Natalya Doris 3.75 2–0 Nicholas Baird / Natalya Doris 3.74 2–0	80%	13–0 (100%)	+2.6
2	Boston College Eagles	2	11.52 school +0.25	Harry Koeppel / Alice Bohan 3.14 Raul Rios / Allison Ferraris 4.12 Charles Sinks / Katherine Downey 3.88	75%	11–2 (85%)	+1.3
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	10	10.11 school −0.35, home +0.19	Joseph Paggi / Lisa Sukharev-Chuyan 3.17 7–4 Alexander Stewart / Paige Omura 3.69 8–3 Cutter O'Connell / Christopher Ford 3.34 7–1 Ty Ingram / Greta Farrell 3.42 4–2 Ty Ingram / Jordan Ladd 3.51 1–2	45%	9–4 (69%)	+3.2
4	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	12	9.77 school +0.07	Jack Mcguire / Hunter Moeller 3.54 William Hawk / Louisa Lindgren 3.05 Matthew Kaplan / Julia Rew 3.05	36%	8–5 (62%)	+3.3
5	Brown University Bears	3	11.16 school +0.29	Patrick Shanahan / Katherine Sudol 3.45 Nathan Allman / Ragna Eide 3.59 Pearson Potts / Marina Cano 3.80	67%	8–5 (62%)	−0.7
6	Dartmouth College Big Green	7	10.57 school +0.07	Christopher Williford / Abigail Rohman Charles Lalumiere / Rebecca Mcelvain 3.54 7–4 Robert Floyd / Madeleine Cooney 3.33 6–5 Duncan Williford / Madeleine Cooney 3.06 2–0 Duncan Williford / Rebecca Mcelvain 3.14 1–1	54%	8–5 (62%)	+1.0
7	Harvard University Crimson	4	11.10 school −0.22	Nick Sertl / Nomin-Erdene Jagdagdorj 3.32 Andrew Mollerus / Sydney Karnovsky 4.10 6–5 Juan Perdomo / Julia Lord 4.00 5–3 Marek Zaleski / Julia Lord 3.66 3–2 Juan Perdomo / Sydney Karnovsky 4.10 2–0	66%	8–5 (62%)	−0.6
8	Roger Williams University Hawks	5	10.62 school +0.06	Martim Anderson / Rebecca Anderson 3.28 5–6 Connor Corgard / Sara Swanson 3.70 6–5 Stewart Draheim / Michael Mcbrien 3.58 6–4 Mackenzie Bryan / Breanne Baldino 3.50 1–6	56%	6–7 (46%)	−1.3
9	Stanford University Cardinal	6	10.47 school +0.59	Axel Sly / Sarah Lucas 3.46 Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk / Sarah Placek 3.42 Russell Clarida / Maggie Schult 3–4 William Marshall / Cassie Obel 2.71 3–3	54%	6–7 (46%)	−1.0
10	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	8	10.46 school −0.29	Nikole Barnes / Anna Morin 3.85 Avery Fanning / Robert Turley 3.88 Dana Rohde / Hannah Herring 2.97	52%	5–8 (38%)	−1.8
11	Boston University Terriers	9	10.26 school −0.18	Ryan Astwood / Hannah Davis 3.66 Ravi Parent / Caroline Salas 3.41 Brendan Cook / Lexi Pline 3.30	47%	4–9 (31%)	−2.1
12	Tufts University Jumbos	11	9.82 school +0.15	John Rolander / Emily Shanley-Roberts 3.25 Scott Barbano / Ian Morgan 3.33 Jack Bitney / Natalie Danziger 3.22 2–5 Cameron Holley / Aaron Klein 2.88 0–3 Cameron Holley / Natalie Danziger 2.90 1–2	38%	3–10 (23%)	−1.9
13	University of Vermont Catamounts	14	7.46 school −0.19	William Crary / Sydney Connor 3.06 Benjamin Craig / James Mccracken 2.06 Jan Kite-Powell / Caroline Duksta 2.37	5%	1–12 (8%)	+0.3
14	University of Rhode Island Rams	13	9.02 school +0.14	Caleb Armstrong / Fiona Christie 3.20 Matthew Coughlin / Kathryn Nota 3.22 Brendan Read / Lauren Richards	24%	1–12 (8%)	−2.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Yale University	11.84	14.84	13–0	10.4	≥+3.00	4.1	5%
4	Bowdoin College	9.77	11.02	8–5	4.7	+1.24	3.0	4%
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	10.11	11.33	9–4	5.8	+1.23	2.8	5%
2	Boston College	11.52	12.21	11–2	9.7	+0.69	0.6	31%
13	University of Vermont	7.46	7.85	1–12	0.7	+0.39	0.1	52%
6	Dartmouth College	10.57	10.93	8–5	7.0	+0.36	0.2	39%
7	Harvard University	11.10	10.86	8–5	8.6	−0.24	0.1	77%
5	Brown University	11.16	10.89	8–5	8.7	−0.27	0.1	78%
9	Stanford University	10.47	10.08	6–7	7.1	−0.39	0.3	83%
8	Roger Williams University	10.62	10.12	6–7	7.3	−0.51	0.5	87%
10	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	10.46	9.78	5–8	6.8	−0.67	0.8	92%
11	Boston University	10.26	9.40	4–9	6.1	−0.86	1.3	95%
12	Tufts University	9.82	8.92	3–10	4.9	−0.90	1.2	95%
14	University of Rhode Island	9.02	7.34	1–12	3.1	−1.69	2.2	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Ian Barrows	Yale University	4.34	7.34	13–0	10.4	≥+3.00	4.1	5%
Nicholas Baird	Yale University	3.76	6.76	8–0	6.3	≥+3.00	2.7	13%
Joseph Kiss	Yale University	3.70	6.70	7–0	6.0	≥+3.00	1.6	31%
Alexander Stewart	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.69	5.01	8–3	5.2	+1.32	2.6	6%
Jack Mcguire	Bowdoin College	3.54	4.78	8–5	4.7	+1.24	3.0	4%
William Hawk	Bowdoin College	3.05	4.29	8–5	4.7	+1.24	3.0	4%
Joseph Paggi	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.17	4.33	7–4	4.2	+1.16	2.3	7%
Harry Koeppel	Boston College	3.14	3.84	11–2	9.7	+0.69	0.6	31%
Raul Rios	Boston College	4.12	4.81	11–2	9.7	+0.69	0.6	31%
Ty Ingram	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.42	4.03	5–4	4.0	+0.61	0.5	33%
William Crary	University of Vermont	3.06	3.44	1–12	0.7	+0.39	0.1	52%
Benjamin Craig	University of Vermont	2.06	2.45	1–12	0.7	+0.39	0.1	52%
Charles Lalumiere	Dartmouth College	3.54	3.80	7–4	6.4	+0.26	0.1	48%
Juan Perdomo	Harvard University	4.00	4.19	7–3	6.7	+0.19	0.0	56%
Robert Floyd	Dartmouth College	3.33	3.35	6–5	6.0	+0.02	0.0	62%
Connor Corgard	Roger Williams University	3.70	3.55	6–5	6.3	−0.15	0.0	72%
Nathan Allman	Brown University	3.59	3.33	8–5	8.7	−0.27	0.1	78%
Marek Zaleski	Harvard University	3.66	3.32	3–2	3.4	−0.34	0.1	81%
Axel Sly	Stanford University	3.46	3.07	6–7	7.1	−0.39	0.3	83%
Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk	Stanford University	3.42	3.03	6–7	7.1	−0.39	0.3	83%
Andrew Mollerus	Harvard University	4.10	3.55	6–5	7.2	−0.55	0.5	88%
Martim Anderson	Roger Williams University	3.28	2.74	5–6	6.2	−0.55	0.5	88%
Nikole Barnes	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.85	3.18	5–8	6.8	−0.67	0.8	92%
Avery Fanning	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.88	3.21	5–8	6.8	−0.67	0.8	92%
Ryan Astwood	Boston University	3.66	2.81	4–9	6.1	−0.86	1.3	95%
Ravi Parent	Boston University	3.41	2.55	4–9	6.1	−0.86	1.3	95%
Brendan Cook	Boston University	3.30	2.44	4–9	6.1	−0.86	1.3	95%
John Rolander	Tufts University	3.25	2.35	3–10	4.9	−0.90	1.2	95%
Scott Barbano	Tufts University	3.33	2.42	3–10	4.9	−0.90	1.2	95%
Matthew Coughlin	University of Rhode Island	3.22	1.54	1–12	3.1	−1.69	2.2	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Harvard University	25%	upset
1	2	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	48%	upset
1	3	Stanford University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	54%
1	4	Boston University	Tufts University	56%
1	5	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	91%
1	6	Bowdoin College	University of Vermont	92%
1	7	Yale University	Boston College	62%
1	8	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	44%	upset
1	9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	66%
1	10	Roger Williams University	Boston University	60%
1	11	Stanford University	Brown University	37%	upset
1	12	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	56%
1	13	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	95%
1	14	Boston College	University of Vermont	98%
1	15	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	55%
1	16	Harvard University	Boston University	66%
1	17	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	27%	upset
1	18	Bowdoin College	Roger Williams University	31%	upset
1	19	Yale University	Stanford University	76%
1	20	Tufts University	University of Vermont	93%
1	21	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	93%
1	22	Boston University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	45%	upset
1	23	Brown University	Dartmouth College	62%
1	24	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	81%
1	25	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	85%
1	26	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	96%
1	27	Stanford University	University of Rhode Island	77%
1	28	Boston College	Tufts University	87%
1	29	Brown University	Boston University	71%
1	30	Bowdoin College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	33%	upset
1	31	Yale University	Dartmouth College	76%
1	32	Harvard University	University of Vermont	98%
1	33	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Rhode Island	77%
1	34	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	77%
1	35	Boston College	Stanford University	78%
1	36	Bowdoin College	Brown University	20%	upset
1	37	Yale University	Boston University	83%
1	38	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	95%
1	39	Dartmouth College	University of Rhode Island	84%
1	40	Harvard University	Tufts University	83%
1	41	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Stanford University	45%	upset
1	42	Boston College	Roger Williams University	66%
1	43	Yale University	Bowdoin College	88%
1	44	Brown University	University of Vermont	98%
1	45	University of Rhode Island	Boston University	23%	upset
1	46	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	62%
1	47	Dartmouth College	Stanford University	40%	upset
1	48	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	35%	upset
1	49	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	79%
1	50	Yale University	University of Vermont	99%
1	51	Bowdoin College	University of Rhode Island	67%
1	52	Brown University	Tufts University	77%
1	53	Stanford University	Boston University	60%
1	54	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Roger Williams University	50%
1	55	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	61%
1	56	Harvard University	Boston College	43%	upset
1	57	University of Vermont	University of Rhode Island	17%	upset
1	58	Yale University	Tufts University	87%
1	59	Bowdoin College	Stanford University	29%	upset
1	60	Brown University	Roger Williams University	65%
1	61	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston University	45%	upset
1	62	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	69%
1	63	Boston College	Dartmouth College	78%
1	64	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	63%
1	65	Stanford University	University of Vermont	94%
1	66	Yale University	Roger Williams University	78%
1	67	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	56%
1	68	Brown University	Harvard University	48%	upset
1	69	Boston University	Dartmouth College	40%	upset
1	70	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	75%
1	71	Stanford University	Tufts University	66%
1	72	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	82%
1	73	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Vermont	94%
1	74	Yale University	Harvard University	64%
1	75	Bowdoin College	Dartmouth College	29%	upset
1	76	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	67%
1	77	Boston College	Boston University	78%
1	78	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	58%
1	79	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	66%
1	80	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	85%
1	81	Dartmouth College	University of Vermont	96%
1	82	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	79%
1	83	Bowdoin College	Boston University	38%	upset
1	84	Boston College	Brown University	60%
1	85	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	38%	upset
1	86	Harvard University	Stanford University	55%
1	87	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	61%
1	88	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	79%
1	89	Boston University	University of Vermont	94%
1	90	Yale University	Brown University	67%
1	91	Boston College	Bowdoin College	85%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Eagles	Engineers	Bears	Bears	Green	Crimson	Hawks	Cardinal	Bears	Terriers	Jumbos	Catamounts	Rams
Yale University Bulldogs	13–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	11–2	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	9–4	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	8–5	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	L	W	W
Brown University Bears	8–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	8–5	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	8–5	L	W	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	6–7	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	5–8	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	4–9	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L
Tufts University Jumbos	3–10	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	1–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	1–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
2	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
3	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
4	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
5	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
6	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
7	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
8	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
9	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
10	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
11	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
12	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
13	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
14	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
15	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
16	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
17	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
18	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
19	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
20	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
21	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
22	Terriers	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
23	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
24	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6
25	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
26	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
27	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
28	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
29	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
30	Polar Bears	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
31	Bulldogs	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
32	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
33	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
34	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
35	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
36	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
37	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6
38	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
39	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
40	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
41	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Cardinal	2-4-5
42	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
43	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
44	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
45	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
46	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
47	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Cardinal	1-4-6
48	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
49	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
50	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
51	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
52	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
53	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
54	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
55	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
56	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
57	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
58	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
59	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
60	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
61	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6
62	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
63	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
64	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
65	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
66	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
67	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
68	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
69	Terriers	3-4-5	def.	Big Green	1-2-6 DSQ
70	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
71	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
72	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
73	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
74	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
75	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
76	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
77	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
78	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
79	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
80	Crimson	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
81	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
82	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
83	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
84	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
85	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
86	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
87	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
88	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
89	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
90	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
91	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Ian Barrows '17 Joseph Kiss '17 Malcolm Lamphere '18 Nicholas Baird '19	Meredith Megarry '17 Clara Robertson '17 Natalya Doris '17 Chandler Gregoire '17 Charlotte Belling '16
Boston College	Eagles	Charles Sinks '18 Harry Koeppel '17 Raul Rios '16	Katherine Downey '16 Alice Bohan '18 Allison Ferraris '17
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Alexander Stewart '17 Cutter O'Connell '18 Joseph Paggi '16 Ty Ingram '18	Paige Omura '17 Christopher Ford '16 Lisa Sukharev-Chuyan '16 Greta Farrell '18 Jordan Ladd '17
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Jack Mcguire '17 Matthew Kaplan '19 William Hawk '18	Hunter Moeller '17 Julia Rew '16 Louisa Lindgren '19
Brown University	Bears	Nathan Allman '16 Patrick Shanahan '19 Pearson Potts '16	Ragna Eide '16 Katherine Sudol '16 Marina Cano '17
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Charles Lalumiere '17 Christopher Williford '19 Duncan Williford '18 Robert Floyd '17	Rebecca Mcelvain '19 Abigail Rohman '16 Madeleine Cooney '17
Harvard University	Crimson	Andrew Mollerus '16 Juan Perdomo '17 Marek Zaleski '16 Nick Sertl '18	Sydney Karnovsky '16 Julia Lord '17 Nomin-Erdene Jagdagdorj '17
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Connor Corgard '16 Mackenzie Bryan '18 Martim Anderson '18 Stewart Draheim '16	Sara Swanson '16 Breanne Baldino '16 Rebecca Anderson '18 Michael Mcbrien '18
Stanford University	Cardinal	Axel Sly '16 Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk '17 Russell Clarida '19 William Marshall '19	Sarah Lucas '18 Sarah Placek '18 Maggie Schult '19 Cassie Obel '19
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Avery Fanning '16 Dana Rohde '18 Nikole Barnes '17	Robert Turley '16 Hannah Herring '18 Anna Morin '19
Boston University	Terriers	Brendan Cook '16 Ravi Parent '18 Ryan Astwood '16	Lexi Pline '19 Caroline Salas '18 Hannah Davis '19
Tufts University	Jumbos	Cameron Holley '19 Jack Bitney '19 John Rolander '17 Scott Barbano '17	Aaron Klein '18 Natalie Danziger '17 Emily Shanley-Roberts '18 Ian Morgan '19
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Benjamin Craig '17 Jan Kite-Powell '19 William Crary '17	James Mccracken '17 Caroline Duksta '19 Sydney Connor '18
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Brendan Read '19 Caleb Armstrong '16 Matthew Coughlin '16	Lauren Richards '19 Fiona Christie '17 Kathryn Nota '19

Conditions — 04/02/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 90% · Pressure 998.9 hPa

Temperature

48°F

↑ 49°F ↓ 46°F

Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.4 kn

avg · max 7.7 kn

Gusts to 14.2 kn

From SSW (198°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine0.5 hrs Humidity90% Pressure998.9 hPa Rain0.38 in

What this breeze does at MIT — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at MIT in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled fleet-race days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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