Brown University '16
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 1.75 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 9 | Fall 2015 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.08 (fleet 4.25) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 124–109 (53%) as crew 0–1 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 17–20 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 13–4 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 5 | 34–41 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 8–6 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 5 | 27–9 | 0–1 |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 9–5 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 3 | 9–17 | — |
| Fall 2012 | 1 | 7–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 16 graded regattas (209 matches) the record is 113–96 against 119.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−6.4). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 8 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 15 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-28 | LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | skipper | 3.92 | 2.87 | 9–15 | 12.6 | −1.05 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2016-04-02 | The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.80 | 3.53 | 8–5 | 8.7 | −0.27 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 2015-11-07 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.82 | 3.40 | 13–4 | 14.1 | −0.42 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 2015-04-11 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.80 | 3.40 | 7–10 | 8.4 | −0.41 | 0.4 | 85% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.76 | 3.33 | 8–7 | 9.3 | −0.43 | 0.4 | 85% |
| 2015-03-28 | Jan T. Friis Team Race | skipper | 3.85 | 4.52 | 8–6 | 6.1 | +0.67 | 0.9 | 20% |
| 2015-03-21 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.86 | 3.18 | 6–9 | 7.8 | −0.68 | 0.9 | 92% |
| 2015-03-14 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 3.55 | 3.91 | 5–9 | 4.2 | +0.37 | 0.2 | 40% |
| 2014-11-08 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.84 | 3.22 | 8–6 | 9.7 | −0.61 | 0.7 | 91% |
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 3.34 | 2.51 | 2–2 | 2.7 | −0.83 | 0.4 | 91% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.35 | 3.56 | 3–1 | 2.8 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2014-03-22 | Jan T. Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.34 | 5.03 | 5–1 | 3.4 | +1.69 | 1.9 | 13% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.38 | 6.38 | 6–0 | 4.3 | ≥+3.00 | 3.3 | 8% |
| 2014-03-08 | TR Invite | skipper | 3.14 | 3.73 | 11–5 | 9.2 | +0.59 | 0.8 | 23% |
| 2013-11-09 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.22 | 3.34 | 9–5 | 8.7 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 54% |
| 2013-04-06 | Friis & Marchiando Trophies | skipper | 3.13 | 2.23 | 5–11 | 7.5 | −0.90 | 1.6 | 96% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 22 | 36% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.1 | 4.43 |
| Gill Coed National Championship | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.9 | 4.47 |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.0 | 4.94 |
| 81st Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.1 | 3.95 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.8 | 3.97 |
| NE Match Racing Championship Keelboat | Skipper | A | 1 | 5.0 | — |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.7 | 4.27 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 11.2 | 3.09 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 75% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.5 | 4.09 |
| 74th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.2 | 4.14 |
| 73rd Pine Trophy Keelboat | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.6 | 1.30 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Jan T. Friis Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.4 | 3.95 |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Skipper | B | 15 | 6.3 | 4.25 |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.6 | 4.97 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.6 | 3.63 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.6 | 3.84 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.6 | 3.72 |
| Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.7 | 4.23 |
| 32nd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 12.8 | 2.30 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.0 | 4.03 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.9 | 4.07 |
| 74th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.0 | 3.56 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| TR Invite | Skipper | TR | 20 | 70% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.4 | 3.72 |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 59% | — |
| Jan T. Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 17 | 71% | — |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.0 | 3.57 |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| Gill National Championship Finals | Skipper | B | 7 | 11.3 | 3.16 |
| Fowle New England Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 9.4 | 2.51 |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.5 | 3.85 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 20 | 7.8 | 3.61 |
| Moody | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.9 | 2.67 |
| 31st Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.8 | 3.63 |
| 39th Harry H. Anderson Jr Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.8 | 3.21 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.8 | 3.74 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Pearson Potts |  Connecticut College |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
