Southern New England Team Race

HostConnecticut College
Date03/30/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	12–4
2	Brown University	Bears	11–5
3	Georgetown University	Hoyas	11–5
4	Stanford University	Cardinal	11–5
5	Boston College	Eagles	10–6
6	Roger Williams University	Hawks	6–10
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	5–6
8	Tufts University	Jumbos	4–7
9	Dartmouth College	Big Green	4–7
10	University of South Florida	Bulls	3–8
11	Connecticut College	Camels	3–8
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	1–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 988 team race matches sailed before 2013-03-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 59 of 81 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.522 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	5	12.02 school +0.21	Cam Cullman / Marlena Fauer 3.85 Christopher Segerblom / Charlotte Belling 3.85 Graham Landy / Heather May 4.06 12–3 Graham Landy / Eugenia Custo Greig 3.96 0–1	62%	12–4 (75%)	+2.1
2	Brown University Bears	4	12.10 school +0.33	Colin Smith / Louisa Chafee 3.97 Tommy Fink / Ashley Noble 4.16 Tyler Rice / Michael Yanagisawa 3.61	64%	11–5 (69%)	+0.7
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	1	12.48	Chris Barnard / Hilary Kenyon 4.52 Nevin Snow / Victoria Lynch 4.38 Alex Post / Katia Dasilva 3.54 11–4 Sean Golden / Annalee Leggett 3.41 0–1	72%	11–5 (69%)	−0.5
4	Stanford University Cardinal	2	12.46 school +0.12	Kevin Laube / Carolyn Ortel 4.18 Mateo Vargas / Tally Buckstaff 3.97 Oliver Toole / Haley Kirk 4.19 9–5 Oliver Toole / Helena Scutt 4.00 2–0	71%	11–5 (69%)	−0.4
5	Boston College Eagles	3	12.12 school +0.08	Alex Cook / Laura Mckenna 3.84 William Bailey / Molly Clarke 4.03 Raul Rios / Patrick Hession 4.20 4–5 Erika Reineke / Elizabeth Barnard 4.08 6–1	65%	10–6 (62%)	−0.4
6	Roger Williams University Hawks	7	11.19 school +0.10	Alec Anderson / Alyssa Seifert 4.47 Henry Vogel / Bianca Rom 3.05 William Macdonald / Wendy Reuss 3.54	43%	6–10 (38%)	−0.9
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	11	10.11 school +0.32	Ian Liberty / Mariah Leffingwell 3.25 Nicholas Clemence / Allison Shane 3.45 Alexander Curtiss / Ainsley Thomson 3.06 5–5 Alexander Curtiss / Thad Bench 2.99 0–1	30%	5–6 (45%)	+1.8
8	Tufts University Jumbos	8	10.52 school +0.16	William Hutchings / Kathleen Kwasniak 3.27 David Liebenberg / Sam Madden 3.31 William Haeger / Paula Grasberger 3.75	37%	4–7 (36%)	−0.1
9	Dartmouth College Big Green	6	10.95 school −0.07	Scott Houck / Avery Plough Deirdre Lambert / Carissa Crawford 3.62 Matthew Wefer / Margaret Wilson 3.48	46%	4–7 (36%)	−1.0
10	University of South Florida Bulls	10	10.29 school +0.06	Christopher Stocke / Ali Yarbrough 3.89 Fernando Monllor / Rebecca Campbell 3.18 Benjamin Mohney / Aj Degen	32%	3–8 (27%)	−0.5
11	Connecticut College Camels	9	10.28 school +0.31, home +0.52	Kevin Martland / Ellis Tonissi 3.05 3–7 Peter Miller / Stephanie Kapinos 3.35 3–7 Pearson Potts / Lea Bushnell 2.96 2–4 Jordan Bothwick / Marina Sachs 2.81 1–3 Kevin Martland / Benjamin Meyers 3.05 0–1 Peter Miller / Benjamin Meyers 2.86 0–1 Jordan Bothwick / David Rex 2.35 0–1	33%	3–8 (27%)	−0.7
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	12	8.69 school +0.09	Eddie Cox / Morgan Gould 2.60 William Godfrey / Catherine Pelo 2.74 Stewart Draheim / Jane Rew 3.07	8%	1–10 (9%)	+0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	10.11	11.00	5–6	3.2	+0.89	1.2	17%
1	Yale University	12.02	12.72	12–4	9.9	+0.71	1.0	19%
2	Brown University	12.10	12.34	11–5	10.3	+0.24	0.1	46%
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	8.69	8.78	1–10	0.9	+0.09	0.0	63%
8	Tufts University	10.52	10.48	4–7	4.1	−0.04	0.0	66%
5	Boston College	12.12	11.99	10–6	10.4	−0.13	0.0	70%
4	Stanford University	12.46	12.32	11–5	11.4	−0.14	0.0	71%
3	Georgetown University	12.48	12.31	11–5	11.5	−0.18	0.1	73%
10	University of South Florida	10.29	10.00	3–8	3.5	−0.29	0.1	77%
6	Roger Williams University	11.19	10.88	6–10	6.9	−0.32	0.2	80%
11	Connecticut College	10.28	9.90	3–8	3.7	−0.38	0.2	81%
9	Dartmouth College	10.95	10.44	4–7	5.0	−0.51	0.4	86%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Ian Liberty	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.25	4.14	5–6	3.2	+0.89	1.2	17%
Alexander Curtiss	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.06	3.96	5–6	3.2	+0.89	1.2	17%
Nicholas Clemence	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.45	4.35	5–6	3.2	+0.89	1.2	17%
Erika Reineke	Boston College	4.08	4.96	6–1	5.1	+0.88	0.5	38%
Graham Landy	Yale University	4.06	4.77	12–4	9.9	+0.71	1.0	19%
Cam Cullman	Yale University	3.85	4.56	12–4	9.9	+0.71	1.0	19%
Christopher Segerblom	Yale University	3.85	4.55	12–4	9.9	+0.71	1.0	19%
Colin Smith	Brown University	3.97	4.21	11–5	10.3	+0.24	0.1	46%
Tommy Fink	Brown University	4.16	4.40	11–5	10.3	+0.24	0.1	46%
Tyler Rice	Brown University	3.61	3.85	11–5	10.3	+0.24	0.1	46%
Alex Post	Georgetown University	3.54	3.67	11–4	10.6	+0.14	0.0	55%
Eddie Cox	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.60	2.68	1–10	0.9	+0.09	0.0	63%
William Godfrey	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.74	2.82	1–10	0.9	+0.09	0.0	63%
William Hutchings	Tufts University	3.27	3.23	4–7	4.1	−0.04	0.0	66%
David Liebenberg	Tufts University	3.31	3.26	4–7	4.1	−0.04	0.0	66%
William Haeger	Tufts University	3.75	3.71	4–7	4.1	−0.04	0.0	66%
Alex Cook	Boston College	3.84	3.71	10–6	10.4	−0.13	0.0	70%
William Bailey	Boston College	4.03	3.90	10–6	10.4	−0.13	0.0	70%
Oliver Toole	Stanford University	4.19	4.05	11–5	11.4	−0.14	0.0	71%
Kevin Laube	Stanford University	4.18	4.04	11–5	11.4	−0.14	0.0	71%
Mateo Vargas	Stanford University	3.97	3.83	11–5	11.4	−0.14	0.0	71%
Chris Barnard	Georgetown University	4.52	4.34	11–5	11.5	−0.18	0.1	73%
Nevin Snow	Georgetown University	4.38	4.21	11–5	11.5	−0.18	0.1	73%
Christopher Stocke	University of South Florida	3.89	3.60	3–8	3.5	−0.29	0.1	77%
Fernando Monllor	University of South Florida	3.18	2.89	3–8	3.5	−0.29	0.1	77%
Benjamin Mohney	University of South Florida	3.06	2.77	3–8	3.5	−0.29	0.1	77%
Alec Anderson	Roger Williams University	4.47	4.15	6–10	6.9	−0.32	0.2	80%
Henry Vogel	Roger Williams University	3.05	2.73	6–10	6.9	−0.32	0.2	80%
William Macdonald	Roger Williams University	3.54	3.23	6–10	6.9	−0.32	0.2	80%
Kevin Martland	Connecticut College	3.05	2.67	3–8	3.7	−0.38	0.2	81%
Peter Miller	Connecticut College	3.35	2.96	3–8	3.7	−0.38	0.2	81%
Scott Houck	Dartmouth College	3.79	3.28	4–7	5.0	−0.51	0.4	86%
Deirdre Lambert	Dartmouth College	3.62	3.11	4–7	5.0	−0.51	0.4	86%
Matthew Wefer	Dartmouth College	3.48	2.97	4–7	5.0	−0.51	0.4	86%
Jordan Bothwick	Connecticut College	2.81	2.26	1–4	1.4	−0.55	0.2	84%
Raul Rios	Boston College	4.20	3.54	4–5	5.3	−0.66	0.6	90%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Boston College	Connecticut College	86%
1	2	Brown University	Tufts University	83%
1	3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	83%
1	4	Georgetown University	University of South Florida	91%
1	5	Roger Williams University	Yale University	31%	upset
1	6	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	84%
1	7	Tufts University	Connecticut College	59%
1	8	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	87%
1	9	Brown University	Georgetown University	40%	upset
1	10	Roger Williams University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	93%
1	11	Dartmouth College	University of South Florida	66%
1	12	Yale University	Stanford University	38%	upset
1	13	Tufts University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	60%
1	14	Connecticut College	Georgetown University	13%	upset
1	15	Boston College	Roger Williams University	71%
1	16	Brown University	Dartmouth College	76%
1	17	Yale University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	97%
1	18	University of South Florida	Stanford University	10%	upset
1	19	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	91%
1	20	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	66%
1	21	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	61%
1	22	Yale University	Boston College	49%	upset
1	23	Brown University	University of South Florida	86%
1	24	Stanford University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	98%
1	25	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	21%	upset
1	26	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Dartmouth College	30%	upset
1	27	Yale University	Tufts University	82%
1	28	University of South Florida	Connecticut College	43%	upset
1	29	Boston College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	97%
1	30	Stanford University	Brown University	60%
1	31	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	55%
1	32	Georgetown University	Yale University	62%
1	33	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of South Florida	45%	upset
1	34	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Tufts University	14%	upset
1	35	Brown University	Connecticut College	95%
1	36	Stanford University	Boston College	53%
1	37	Dartmouth College	Yale University	29%	upset
1	38	Roger Williams University	University of South Florida	71%
1	39	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	98%
1	40	Brown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	89%
1	41	Boston College	Tufts University	84%
1	42	Stanford University	Connecticut College	87%
1	43	Yale University	University of South Florida	85%
1	44	Dartmouth College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	90%
1	45	Brown University	Roger Williams University	71%
1	46	Georgetown University	Boston College	58%
1	47	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Connecticut College	46%	upset
1	48	Stanford University	Tufts University	88%
1	49	University of South Florida	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	83%
1	50	Yale University	Brown University	48%	upset
1	51	Boston College	Dartmouth College	76%
1	52	Connecticut College	Roger Williams University	29%	upset
1	53	Georgetown University	Tufts University	88%
1	54	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	91%
1	55	Brown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	97%
1	56	Boston College	University of South Florida	86%
1	57	Yale University	Connecticut College	85%
1	58	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	38%	upset
1	59	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Roger Williams University	26%	upset
1	60	Georgetown University	Stanford University	50%
1	61	Brown University	Boston College	48%	upset
1	62	Connecticut College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	87%
1	63	Tufts University	University of South Florida	55%
1	64	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	87%
1	65	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	81%
1	66	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	78%
1	67	Boston College	Brown University	52%
1	68	Georgetown University	Boston College	58%
1	69	Boston College	Roger Williams University	70%
1	70	Stanford University	Boston College	53%
1	71	Boston College	Yale University	51%
1	72	Brown University	Georgetown University	41%	upset
1	73	Brown University	Roger Williams University	71%
1	74	Stanford University	Brown University	59%
1	75	Yale University	Brown University	48%	upset
1	76	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	78%
1	77	Georgetown University	Stanford University	50%
1	78	Yale University	Georgetown University	39%	upset
1	79	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	78%
1	80	Yale University	Roger Williams University	70%
1	81	Yale University	Stanford University	39%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Bears	Hoyas	Cardinal	Eagles	Hawks	Seahawks	Jumbos	Green	Bulls	Camels	Statesmen
Yale University Bulldogs	12–4	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	11–5	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	11–5	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	L	W
Stanford University Cardinal	11–5	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W
Boston College Eagles	10–6	W	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–10	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	L	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	4–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	L
Dartmouth College Big Green	4–7	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	3–8	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	3–8	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	1–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
2	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
3	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
4	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Bulls	2-4-6
5	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
6	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
7	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
8	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
9	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
10	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
11	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
12	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
13	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
14	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
15	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
16	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
17	Bulldogs	3-5-6	def.	Statesmen	1-2-4 DNF,DNF
18	Bulls	1-3-6	def.	Cardinal	2-4-5
19	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
20	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
21	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
22	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
23	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
24	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
25	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
26	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
27	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
28	Bulls	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
29	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
30	Cardinal	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
31	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
32	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
33	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
34	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
35	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
36	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
37	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
38	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Bulls	1-4-6
39	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
40	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
41	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
42	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
43	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
44	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
45	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
46	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
47	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
48	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
49	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
50	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
51	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
52	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
53	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
54	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
55	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
56	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
57	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
58	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
59	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
60	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5 DNF
61	Bears	1-5-6	def.	Eagles	2-3-4 DNF
62	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
63	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
64	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
65	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
66	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
67	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
68	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
69	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
70	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
71	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
72	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
73	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
74	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
75	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
76	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
77	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
78	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
79	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
80	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
81	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Cam Cullman '13 Christopher Segerblom '14 Graham Landy '15	Marlena Fauer '14 Charlotte Belling '16 Heather May '13 Eugenia Custo Greig '14
Brown University	Bears	Colin Smith '13 Tommy Fink '13 Tyler Rice '14	Louisa Chafee '14 Ashley Noble '13 Michael Yanagisawa '13
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Alex Post '15 Chris Barnard '13 Nevin Snow '16 Sean Golden '16	Katia Dasilva '15 Hilary Kenyon '13 Victoria Lynch '13 Annalee Leggett '13
Stanford University	Cardinal	Kevin Laube '14 Mateo Vargas '14 Oliver Toole '14	Carolyn Ortel '14 Tally Buckstaff '14 Haley Kirk '15 Helena Scutt '14
Boston College	Eagles	Alex Cook '13 Erika Reineke '17 Raul Rios '16 William Bailey '15	Laura Mckenna '13 Elizabeth Barnard '15 Patrick Hession '13 Molly Clarke '13
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Alec Anderson '13 Henry Vogel '15 William Macdonald '15	Alyssa Seifert '13 Bianca Rom '13 Wendy Reuss '15
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Alexander Curtiss '16 Ian Liberty '14 Nicholas Clemence '15	Ainsley Thomson '13 Thad Bench '15 Mariah Leffingwell '16 Allison Shane '15
Tufts University	Jumbos	David Liebenberg '14 William Haeger '14 William Hutchings '13	Sam Madden '15 Paula Grasberger '14 Kathleen Kwasniak '14
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Deirdre Lambert '15 Matthew Wefer '14 Scott Houck '15	Carissa Crawford '14 Margaret Wilson '13 Avery Plough '14
University of South Florida	Bulls	Benjamin Mohney '15 Christopher Stocke '15 Fernando Monllor '16	Aj Degen '16 Ali Yarbrough '16 Rebecca Campbell '16
Connecticut College	Camels	Jordan Bothwick '15 Kevin Martland '14 Pearson Potts '16 Peter Miller '13	Marina Sachs '15 David Rex '14 Ellis Tonissi '15 Benjamin Meyers '15 Lea Bushnell '15 Stephanie Kapinos '13
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Eddie Cox '16 Stewart Draheim '16 William Godfrey '16	Morgan Gould '14 Jane Rew '14 Catherine Pelo '13

Conditions — 03/30/2013 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 45% · Pressure 1018.3 hPa

Temperature

48°F

↑ 53°F ↓ 36°F

Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.1 kn

avg · max 7.3 kn

Gusts to 19.0 kn

From NW (306°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover54% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1018.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.12)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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