Boston College '13
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.57 (fleet 3.55) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 73–32 (70%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 | 5 | 49–31 | — |
| Fall 2012 | 2 | 24–1 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (13 matches) the record is 6–7 against 9.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-05-25 | APS Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.67 | 2.10 | 6–7 | 9.0 | −1.57 | 3.3 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 62% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 23 | 70% | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Skipper | B | 3 | 9.3 | 3.57 |
| APS Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 13 | 46% | — |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| College Sailing Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 3 | 9.0 | 3.17 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 9.4 | 3.38 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.8 | 3.54 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 100% | — |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.1 | 3.81 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 93% | — |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.7 | 4.24 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.1 | 3.69 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.7 | 4.15 |
| New England Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 17 | 7.1 | 3.55 |
| Gill Dinghy National Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.0 | 3.37 |
| 83rd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 18 | 9.4 | 3.39 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Intersectional | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.6 | 3.47 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.9 | 2.94 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 10.3 | 2.64 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.1 | 3.18 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 11.5 | 3.10 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 4.8 | 3.66 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 3.2 | 3.98 |
| 8th George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.2 | 4.16 |
| 82nd Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.1 | 3.68 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.1 | 2.75 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor Steadman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.7 | 2.77 |
| Roger Williams Invitational | Skipper | A | 18 | 2.7 | 4.13 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.5 | 2.68 |
| Spring 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Crew | A | 2 | 4.0 | — |
| The Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | A | 17 | 10.9 | 2.45 |
| Fall 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy- Greater Boston | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.7 | 2.67 |
| Ne Freshman, Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.1 | 3.46 |
| The Moody Trophy | Crew | A, B | 6 | 6.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
