Hap Moore Team Race

HostConnecticut College
Date11/03/2012
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Boston College	Eagles	13–1
2	Brown University	Bears	11–3
3	Harvard University	Crimson	9–5
4	Connecticut College	Camels	7–7
5	Roger Williams University	Hawks	7–7
6	Tufts University	Jumbos	6–8
7	University of Vermont	Catamounts	3–11
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	0–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 26 team race matches sailed before 2012-11-03, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 56 matches (32%) with a log-loss of 8.459 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Boston College Eagles	8	-137.98	Alex Cook / Laura Mckenna -26.19 William Bailey / Molly Clarke Raul Rios / Patrick Hession	0%	13–1 (93%)	+13.0
2	Brown University Bears	7	-125.53	Tyler Rice / Ashley Noble Drew Shea / Logan Shanney Tommy Fink / Michael Yanagisawa	24%	11–3 (79%)	+7.7
3	Harvard University Crimson	4	-127.41	Gram Slattery / Sydney Karnovsky Michael Drumm / Jacob Bradt Brian Drumm / Richard Bergsund	55%	9–5 (64%)	+1.2
4	Connecticut College Camels	5	-126.03 home +-2.46	Jordan Bothwick / Katherine Andril Kevin Martland / Kim Bolick Pearson Potts / Stephanie Kapinos 6–6 Pearson Potts / Bettina Redway 1–1	44%	7–7 (50%)	+0.8
5	Roger Williams University Hawks	6	-157.00 school −0.38	William Macdonald / Breanne Baldino Henry Vogel / Alyssa Seifert -27.30 Connor Brady / Jaye Fahey -27.67	28%	7–7 (50%)	+3.0
6	Tufts University Jumbos	1	-123.96 school +0.38	William Haeger / Paula Grasberger William Hutchings / Kathleen Kwasniak David Liebenberg / Caroline Atwood	100%	6–8 (43%)	−8.0
7	University of Vermont Catamounts	2	-129.13	Steven Pelissier / Bridget Murphy Michael Booker / Sara Anibal Nate Jermain / Amanda Donohue	86%	3–11 (21%)	−9.0
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3	-127.81	Philip Crain / Samantha Albright Christopher Ford / Taylor Burfield Joseph Paggi / Eben Freeman	63%	0–14 (0%)	−8.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Boston College	-137.98	-131.98	13–1	0.0	+6.00	112.5	<1%
2	Brown University	-125.53	-119.53	11–3	3.3	+6.00	58.9	<1%
5	Roger Williams University	-157.00	-151.00	7–7	4.0	+6.00	17.3	<1%
3	Harvard University	-127.41	-125.58	9–5	7.8	+1.83	1.5	21%
4	Connecticut College	-126.03	-124.80	7–7	6.1	+1.23	0.7	34%
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	-127.81	-130.81	0–14	8.8	≤−3.00	36.0	>99%
6	Tufts University	-123.96	-129.96	6–8	14.0	−6.00	65.8	>99%
7	University of Vermont	-129.13	-135.13	3–11	12.0	−6.00	77.9	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Alex Cook	Boston College	-26.19	-20.19	13–1	0.0	+6.00	112.5	<1%
William Bailey	Boston College	7.62	13.62	13–1	0.0	+6.00	112.5	<1%
Raul Rios	Boston College	8.15	14.15	13–1	0.0	+6.00	112.5	<1%
Tyler Rice	Brown University	6.99	12.99	11–3	3.3	+6.00	58.9	<1%
Drew Shea	Brown University	5.97	11.97	11–3	3.3	+6.00	58.9	<1%
Tommy Fink	Brown University	7.94	13.94	11–3	3.3	+6.00	58.9	<1%
William Macdonald	Roger Williams University	7.05	13.05	7–7	4.0	+6.00	17.3	<1%
Henry Vogel	Roger Williams University	-27.30	-21.31	7–7	4.0	+6.00	17.3	<1%
Gram Slattery	Harvard University	6.55	8.38	9–5	7.8	+1.83	1.5	21%
Michael Drumm	Harvard University	6.31	8.14	9–5	7.8	+1.83	1.5	21%
Brian Drumm	Harvard University	6.16	7.99	9–5	7.8	+1.83	1.5	21%
Jordan Bothwick	Connecticut College	5.08	6.31	7–7	6.1	+1.23	0.7	34%
Kevin Martland	Connecticut College	6.78	8.01	7–7	6.1	+1.23	0.7	34%
Philip Crain	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	7.56	4.56	0–14	8.8	≤−3.00	36.0	>99%
Christopher Ford	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	5.51	2.51	0–14	8.8	≤−3.00	36.0	>99%
Joseph Paggi	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	5.55	2.55	0–14	8.8	≤−3.00	36.0	>99%
William Haeger	Tufts University	7.76	1.76	6–8	14.0	−6.00	65.8	>99%
William Hutchings	Tufts University	7.28	1.28	6–8	14.0	−6.00	65.8	>99%
David Liebenberg	Tufts University	7.04	1.05	6–8	14.0	−6.00	65.8	>99%
Steven Pelissier	University of Vermont	5.81	-0.19	3–11	12.0	−6.00	77.9	>99%
Michael Booker	University of Vermont	5.81	-0.19	3–11	12.0	−6.00	77.9	>99%
Nate Jermain	University of Vermont	5.68	-0.32	3–11	12.0	−6.00	77.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Boston College	Brown University	0%	upset
1	2	Connecticut College	Boston College	100%
1	3	Boston College	Harvard University	0%	upset
1	4	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	0%	upset
1	5	Boston College	Roger Williams University	0%	upset
1	6	Boston College	Tufts University	0%	upset
1	7	Boston College	University of Vermont	0%	upset
1	8	Brown University	Connecticut College	1%	upset
1	9	Brown University	Harvard University	0%	upset
1	10	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	0%	upset
1	11	Brown University	Roger Williams University	0%	upset
1	12	Brown University	Tufts University	0%	upset
1	13	Brown University	University of Vermont	0%	upset
1	14	Connecticut College	Harvard University	92%
1	15	Connecticut College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	0%	upset
1	16	Connecticut College	Roger Williams University	54%
1	17	Tufts University	Connecticut College	100%
1	18	Connecticut College	University of Vermont	0%	upset
1	19	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	60%
1	20	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	100%
1	21	Harvard University	Tufts University	0%	upset
1	22	Harvard University	University of Vermont	0%	upset
1	23	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	0%	upset
1	24	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	100%
1	25	University of Vermont	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	100%
1	26	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	0%	upset
1	27	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	0%	upset
1	28	Tufts University	University of Vermont	99%
2	29	Boston College	Brown University	0%	upset
2	30	Boston College	Connecticut College	0%	upset
2	31	Boston College	Harvard University	0%	upset
2	32	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	0%	upset
2	33	Boston College	Roger Williams University	0%	upset
2	34	Boston College	Tufts University	0%	upset
2	35	Boston College	University of Vermont	0%	upset
2	36	Brown University	Connecticut College	81%
2	37	Brown University	Harvard University	0%	upset
2	38	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	0%	upset
2	39	Roger Williams University	Brown University	49%	upset
2	40	Brown University	Tufts University	0%	upset
2	41	Brown University	University of Vermont	0%	upset
2	42	Harvard University	Connecticut College	49%	upset
2	43	Connecticut College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	0%	upset
2	44	Connecticut College	Roger Williams University	99%
2	45	Tufts University	Connecticut College	100%
2	46	University of Vermont	Connecticut College	100%
2	47	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	60%
2	48	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	100%
2	49	Harvard University	Tufts University	0%	upset
2	50	Harvard University	University of Vermont	0%	upset
2	51	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	0%	upset
2	52	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	100%
2	53	University of Vermont	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	100%
2	54	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	0%	upset
2	55	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	0%	upset
2	56	Tufts University	University of Vermont	99%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Bears	Crimson	Camels	Hawks	Jumbos	Catamounts	Engineers
Boston College Eagles	6–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	4–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	5–2	W	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	3–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Bears	Crimson	Camels	Hawks	Jumbos	Catamounts	Engineers
Boston College Eagles	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–2	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	2–5	L	L	L	✕	W	L	L	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–3	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	3–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	2–5	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
2	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
3	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
4	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
5	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
6	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
7	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
8	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
9	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
10	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
11	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
12	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
13	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
14	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
15	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
16	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
17	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
18	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
19	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
20	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
21	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
22	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
23	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
24	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
25	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
26	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
27	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
28	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
29	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
30	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
31	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
32	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
33	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
34	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
35	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
36	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
37	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
38	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
39	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
40	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
41	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
42	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
43	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
44	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
45	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
46	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
47	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
48	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
49	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
50	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
51	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
52	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
53	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
54	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
55	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
56	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Boston College	Eagles	Alex Cook '13 Raul Rios '16 William Bailey '15	Laura Mckenna '13 Patrick Hession '13 Molly Clarke '13
Brown University	Bears	Drew Shea '14 Tommy Fink '13 Tyler Rice '14	Logan Shanney '13 Michael Yanagisawa '13 Ashley Noble '13
Harvard University	Crimson	Brian Drumm '15 Gram Slattery '15 Michael Drumm '15	Richard Bergsund '15 Sydney Karnovsky '16 Jacob Bradt '16
Connecticut College	Camels	Jordan Bothwick '15 Kevin Martland '14 Pearson Potts '16	Katherine Andril '13 Kim Bolick '15 Bettina Redway '16 Stephanie Kapinos '13
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Connor Brady '15 Henry Vogel '15 William Macdonald '15	Jaye Fahey '15 Alyssa Seifert '13 Breanne Baldino '16
Tufts University	Jumbos	David Liebenberg '14 William Haeger '14 William Hutchings '13	Caroline Atwood '16 Paula Grasberger '14 Kathleen Kwasniak '14
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Michael Booker '15 Nate Jermain '15 Steven Pelissier '14	Sara Anibal '14 Amanda Donohue '13 Bridget Murphy '15
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Christopher Ford '16 Joseph Paggi '16 Philip Crain '13	Taylor Burfield '13 Eben Freeman '13 Samantha Albright '15

Conditions — 11/03/2012 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 58% · Pressure 1007.7 hPa

Temperature

47°F

↑ 51°F ↓ 41°F

Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.3 kn

avg · max 8.9 kn

Gusts to 22.5 kn

From NW (311°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover55% Sunshine7.8 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1007.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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