Harvard University '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.48 (fleet 3.42) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 91–69 (57%) as crew 6–5 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 4 | 10–12 | 6–5 |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 5–3 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 5 | 34–37 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 11–3 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 22–9 | — |
| Fall 2012 | 1 | 9–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 11 graded regattas (123 matches) the record is 65–58 against 61.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.5). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-11 | Fowle Trophy | crew | 3.80 | 3.28 | 3–3 | 3.6 | −0.52 | 0.2 | 86% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | crew | 3.69 | 4.51 | 3–2 | 2.1 | +0.82 | 0.5 | 34% |
| 2015-03-28 | Jan T. Friis Team Race | skipper | 3.36 | 4.41 | 6–4 | 4.2 | +1.05 | 1.3 | 16% |
| 2015-03-14 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 3.34 | 2.75 | 3–6 | 3.9 | −0.59 | 0.4 | 87% |
| 2014-11-08 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.11 | 3.67 | 5–3 | 4.0 | +0.56 | 0.4 | 36% |
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 3.53 | 3.59 | 7–9 | 6.8 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.44 | 3.85 | 14–8 | 12.2 | +0.41 | 0.5 | 28% |
| 2014-03-22 | Team Race Invitational | skipper | 3.36 | 2.48 | 8–7 | 10.4 | −0.88 | 1.5 | 96% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 3.65 | 3.73 | 5–8 | 4.8 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2014-03-08 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 3.25 | 0.25 | 0–5 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| 2013-11-09 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.66 | 4.58 | 11–3 | 8.7 | +0.91 | 1.4 | 14% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
