Sharpe Trophy

HostHarvard
Date03/02/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Brown University	Bears	11–2
2	Yale University	Bulldogs	10–3
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	8–5
4	Roger Williams University	Hawks	3–4
5	Harvard University	Crimson	5–8
6	Tufts University	Jumbos	2–5
7	Boston College	Eagles	1–6
8	University of Vermont	Catamounts	0–7

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 133 team race matches sailed before 2013-03-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 31 of 40 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.414 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Brown University Bears	2	16.68 school +0.13	Colin Smith / Ashley Noble 10–2 Tommy Fink / Louisa Chafee 4.69 10–2 Tyler Rice / Michael Yanagisawa 5.22 10–2 Judge Ryan / Ashley Noble 1–0 Judge Ryan / Michael Yanagisawa 1–0 Judge Ryan / Louisa Chafee 1–0	82%	11–2 (85%)	+0.3
2	Yale University Bulldogs	1	16.76 school +0.23	Cam Cullman / Sarah Smith 4.43 Christopher Segerblom / Charlotte Belling 4.58 Graham Landy / Katherine Gaumond 5.93	82%	10–3 (77%)	−0.7
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6	14.33 school −0.64	Andrew Sommer / Kelden Pehr Philip Crain / Steven Drapcho 4.38 David Alfonso / Eben Freeman	36%	8–5 (62%)	+3.3
4	Roger Williams University Hawks	4	13.64	Andrew Tamblyn / Breanne Baldino 4.48 Connor Corgard / Daniel Goldman Connor Brady / Jaye Fahey 4.74	45%	3–4 (43%)	−0.1
5	Harvard University Crimson	5	14.70 school +0.40, home +-0.34	Brian Drumm / Jacob Bradt 4.81 Michael Drumm / Isabel Ruane 3.79 Gram Slattery / Sydney Karnovsky 5.03	41%	5–8 (38%)	−0.3
6	Tufts University Jumbos	7	12.64 school −0.12	Willem Sandberg / Mara Porter Charles Proctor / Elizabeth Keys 4.26 Natalie Salk / Amelia Quinn	27%	2–5 (29%)	+0.1
7	Boston College Eagles	3	13.96 school −0.31	Ryan Mullins / Caroline Drury 1–5 Domenic Bove / Emily Schalka 4.80 1–5 Erika Reineke / Elizabeth Barnard 1–4 William Bowman / Elizabeth Barnard 4.64 0–2 William Bowman / Caroline Drury 4.80 0–1 William Bowman / Emily Schalka 5.37 0–1	50%	1–6 (14%)	−2.5
8	University of Vermont Catamounts	8	9.82 school +0.15	Adam Ceely / Callagy Ross Henry O'Brien / Trudy Crowley John Duncan / Sara Anibal	2%	0–7 (0%)	−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	14.33	16.00	8–5	4.7	+1.66	4.1	2%
1	Brown University	16.68	16.92	11–2	10.7	+0.24	0.1	57%
6	Tufts University	12.64	12.78	2–5	1.9	+0.14	0.0	63%
4	Roger Williams University	13.64	13.51	3–4	3.1	−0.13	0.0	73%
5	Harvard University	14.70	14.53	5–8	5.3	−0.16	0.0	72%
2	Yale University	16.76	16.30	10–3	10.7	−0.45	0.2	85%
8	University of Vermont	9.82	6.82	0–7	0.1	≤−3.00	0.2	>99%
7	Boston College	13.96	10.84	1–6	3.5	−3.12	4.6	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Andrew Sommer	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	4.24	5.90	8–5	4.7	+1.66	4.1	2%
Philip Crain	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	4.38	6.04	8–5	4.7	+1.66	4.1	2%
David Alfonso	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	4.57	6.23	8–5	4.7	+1.66	4.1	2%
Colin Smith	Brown University	5.61	5.85	10–2	9.7	+0.24	0.1	58%
Tyler Rice	Brown University	5.22	5.42	10–2	9.7	+0.20	0.0	60%
Willem Sandberg	Tufts University	3.60	3.74	2–5	1.9	+0.14	0.0	63%
Charles Proctor	Tufts University	4.26	4.40	2–5	1.9	+0.14	0.0	63%
Natalie Salk	Tufts University	3.65	3.78	2–5	1.9	+0.14	0.0	63%
Tommy Fink	Brown University	4.69	4.83	10–2	9.8	+0.14	0.0	63%
Andrew Tamblyn	Roger Williams University	4.48	4.35	3–4	3.1	−0.13	0.0	73%
Connor Corgard	Roger Williams University	3.64	3.52	3–4	3.1	−0.13	0.0	73%
Brian Drumm	Harvard University	4.81	4.65	5–8	5.3	−0.16	0.0	72%
Michael Drumm	Harvard University	3.79	3.63	5–8	5.3	−0.16	0.0	72%
Gram Slattery	Harvard University	5.03	4.87	5–8	5.3	−0.16	0.0	72%
Cam Cullman	Yale University	4.43	3.98	10–3	10.7	−0.45	0.2	85%
Christopher Segerblom	Yale University	4.58	4.13	10–3	10.7	−0.45	0.2	85%
Graham Landy	Yale University	5.93	5.47	10–3	10.7	−0.45	0.2	85%
Erika Reineke	Boston College	4.52	1.59	1–4	2.6	−2.93	3.0	>99%
Adam Ceely	University of Vermont	2.42	-0.58	0–7	0.1	≤−3.00	0.2	>99%
Henry O'Brien	University of Vermont	2.69	-0.31	0–7	0.1	≤−3.00	0.2	>99%
John Duncan	University of Vermont	3.24	0.24	0–7	0.1	≤−3.00	0.2	>99%
William Bowman	Boston College	4.64	1.64	0–4	1.6	≤−3.00	2.9	>99%
Ryan Mullins	Boston College	3.63	0.63	1–5	3.0	−3.00	3.6	>99%
Domenic Bove	Boston College	4.80	1.70	1–5	3.4	−3.11	4.4	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Boston College	University of Vermont	98%
1	2	Brown University	Tufts University	99%
1	3	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	69%
1	4	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Yale University	7%	upset
1	5	Tufts University	University of Vermont	94%
1	6	Roger Williams University	Boston College	54%
1	7	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	94%
1	8	Yale University	Harvard University	85%
1	9	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	74%
1	10	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Vermont	98%
1	11	Harvard University	Boston College	47%	upset
1	12	Yale University	Brown University	46%	upset
1	13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	55%
1	14	Harvard University	Tufts University	83%
1	15	Brown University	University of Vermont	100%
1	16	Yale University	Boston College	87%
1	17	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Harvard University	40%	upset
1	18	Brown University	Roger Williams University	94%
1	19	Tufts University	Boston College	23%	upset
1	20	Yale University	University of Vermont	100%
1	21	Brown University	Harvard University	89%
1	22	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	54%
1	23	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	97%
1	24	Yale University	Tufts University	97%
1	25	Brown University	Boston College	84%
1	26	Harvard University	University of Vermont	98%
1	27	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	75%
1	28	Yale University	Roger Williams University	94%
1	29	Brown University	Yale University	48%	upset
1	30	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Harvard University	45%	upset
1	31	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	92%
1	32	Brown University	Harvard University	89%
1	33	Yale University	Harvard University	90%
1	34	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	10%	upset
2	35	Brown University	Yale University	46%	upset
2	36	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	53%
2	37	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	91%
2	38	Brown University	Harvard University	89%
2	39	Yale University	Harvard University	91%
2	40	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	90%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bears	Bulldogs	Engineers	Hawks	Crimson	Jumbos	Eagles	Catamounts
Brown University Bears	8–2	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	8–2	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	8–2	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	4–6	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Boston College Eagles	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bears	Bulldogs	Engineers	Crimson
Brown University Bears	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	2–1	L	✕	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	0–3	L	L	✕	L
Harvard University Crimson	1–2	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
2	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
3	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
4	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
5	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
6	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
7	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
8	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
9	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos	1-4-6
10	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
11	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
12	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
13	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
14	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
15	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
16	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
17	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
18	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6
19	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
20	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
21	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
22	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
23	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
24	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
25	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
26	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
27	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
28	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
29	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
30	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
31	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
32	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
33	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
34	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
35	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
36	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
37	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
38	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
39	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
40	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Brown University	Bears	Colin Smith '13 Judge Ryan '14 Tommy Fink '13 Tyler Rice '14	Ashley Noble '13 Louisa Chafee '14 Michael Yanagisawa '13
Yale University	Bulldogs	Cam Cullman '13 Christopher Segerblom '14 Graham Landy '15	Sarah Smith '15 Charlotte Belling '16 Katherine Gaumond '15
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Andrew Sommer '13 David Alfonso '14 Philip Crain '13	Kelden Pehr '13 Eben Freeman '13 Steven Drapcho '13
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Andrew Tamblyn '13 Connor Brady '15 Connor Corgard '16	Breanne Baldino '16 Jaye Fahey '15 Daniel Goldman '13
Harvard University	Crimson	Brian Drumm '15 Gram Slattery '15 Michael Drumm '15	Jacob Bradt '16 Sydney Karnovsky '16 Isabel Ruane '14
Tufts University	Jumbos	Charles Proctor '14 Natalie Salk '13 Willem Sandberg '14	Elizabeth Keys '14 Amelia Quinn '13 Mara Porter '14
Boston College	Eagles	Domenic Bove '15 Erika Reineke '17 Ryan Mullins '13 William Bowman '14	Emily Schalka '15 Elizabeth Barnard '15 Caroline Drury '14
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Adam Ceely '15 Henry O'Brien '15 John Duncan '13	Callagy Ross '14 Trudy Crowley '13 Sara Anibal '14

Conditions — 03/02/2013 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 69% · Pressure 1004.4 hPa

Temperature

36°F

↑ 40°F ↓ 29°F

Feels like 29°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.1 kn

avg · max 7.6 kn

Gusts to 17.9 kn

From NW (323°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover67% Sunshine8.1 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1004.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Harvard — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Harvard in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled fleet-race days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu