Roger Williams University '13
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 44.29 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.113 rating points from 18 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.03 (fleet 2.81) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 36–30 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 | 4 | 29–26 | — |
| Fall 2012 | 1 | 7–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 7–5 against 9.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-04-20 | Staake Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.96 | 2.01 | 7–5 | 9.0 | −0.95 | 1.4 | 96% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.6 | 2.87 |
| Ted Ferrarone Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| Staake Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| Sharpe Trophy | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 61% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg | Skipper | C | 15 | 5.5 | 3.34 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.2 | 2.20 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 15 | 10.5 | 2.55 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.1 | 2.41 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.2 | 2.95 |
| 72nd Oberg Trophy @ BU by NU | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.1 | 2.78 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 19 | 10.3 | 2.71 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor Steadman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.8 | 2.84 |
| 138th Rudolph Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.5 | 1.89 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.8 | 2.41 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.6 | 4.53 |
| Dave Perry Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.5 | 0.80 |
| Boston Harbor Invitational | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.9 | 1.38 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Savin Hill Invitational | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.8 | 1.55 |
| Central Series 4 | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.7 | 2.43 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| RI State Champs @ SRU | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.6 | 2.78 |
| HWS Intersectional | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.4 | 2.10 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 7 | 14.7 | 0.97 |
| Boston College Invitational | Skipper | B | 11 | 3.2 | 2.28 |
| Boston Harbor Invitational | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.2 | 1.48 |
| Spring 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 7 @ SRU | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.6 | 3.15 |
| New London Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.2 | 1.32 |
| Admiral's Cup | Crew | A | 18 | 9.8 | — |
| Fall 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| Ne Freshman, Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.0 | 2.27 |
| Central 6 | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.6 | 1.83 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
