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Southern Series 7 @ SRU

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 23 23
2 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 2 41 41
3 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 45 45
4 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 45 45
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 49 49
6 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 1 63 63
7 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 70 70
8 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 72 72
9 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 1 78 78
10 Mitchell College Mitchell College Mariners 1 86 86
11 Mitchell College Mitchell College Mariners 2 89 89
12 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 2 102 102
13 Yale University Yale University Elis 113 113
14 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1 113 113
15 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 2 125 125
16 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2 127 127
17 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 1 136 136
18 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 171 171
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 3 6 2 2 6 1 1 1 1 23 Andrew Tamblyn '13
Daniel Goldman '13
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 2 1 8 1 9 2 8 4 6 2 41 Christopher Simeone '10
Marta Chlus '13
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 2 3 14 5 5 7 3 2 4 45 Matthew Shapiro '13
Emerald Epke '11
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 4 1 4 4 11 2 2 7 10 45 William Cotta '11 [1-8]
Kristen Holloway '12 [9]
Kristen Holloway '12 [1-8]
William Cotta '11 [9]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 6 9 5 3 1 3 6 5 11 49 Owen Richardson '10
Alyson Yee '12
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 1 11 15 12 1 3 10 5 3 3 63 Peter Giuliano '10
John Giuliano '11
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 8 4 3 7 4 12 15 4 13 70 Thomas Chronert '13 [1-8]
Matthew Stroebel '12 [9]
Matthew Stroebel '12 [1-8]
Thomas Chronert '13 [9]
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 10 2 10 10 12 4 9 8 7 72 Nathan Stevens '11
Grace Zimmerly '13
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 1 9 11 6 12 7 9 7 12 5 78 Sam Bainbridge '13
Thomas Pluchino '18
Mitchell College Mitchell College Mariners 1 12 10 7 14 10 6 8 13 6 86 Alex Hering '13
Tara Chang '13
Mitchell College Mitchell College Mariners 2 5 14 15 6 9 5 11 9 15 89 Dj Pothier '11
Lindsay Teach '11
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 2 7 5 8 8 13 16 13 15 17 102 Tom Mckenzie '13
Nicole Ioannilli '13
Yale University Yale University Elis 14 7 11 15 14 14 10 14 14 113 Zachary Foreman '13
Caroline Elenowitz '12
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1 15 12 16 13 8 13 14 10 12 113 Santiago Enrique '13
David Afienko '13
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 2 13 16 9 11 16 11 16 17 16 125 Steven Apperle '12
Mary Herman '13
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2 17 17 13 17 15 17 12 11 8 127 Matthew Charpentier '11
Douglas Neal '13
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 1 16 13 17 16 17 15 17 16 9 136 Robert Keller '11 [1-4]
Christopher Wands '13 [5-9]
Austin Schwarz '13 [1-4]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 171 Natalie Salk '13
Sara Carnahan '11
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (21 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1112233445
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2223344556
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies 115151616171718181
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies 2161617171818112
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats 1334455667
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats 2445566778
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1556677889
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 26677889910
Mitchell CollegeMitchell College Mariners 1778899101011
Mitchell CollegeMitchell College Mariners 288991010111112
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 19910101111121213
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 2101011111212131314
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks 1121213131414151516
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks 2111112121313141415
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya131314141515161617
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos141415151616171718
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs1717181811223
Yale UniversityYale University Elis18181122334

Conditions — 05/01/2010 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1011.0 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.0 kn
avg  ·  max 7.3 kn
Gusts to 15.0 kn
From SE (140°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover24% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1011.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Salve Regina: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.42 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Salve Regina by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (43 labelled days at Salve Regina).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →