Savin Hill Invitational

HostBoston College
Date04/16/2011
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
Boat420
ScoringCombined

#	School	Team	TOT
1	Boston College	Eagles	99
2	Roger Williams University	Hawks	99
3	Tufts University	Jumbos	141
4	Harvard University	Crimson	238
5	Boston University	Terriers	252
6	University of New Hampshire	Wildcats	348
7	Wellesley College	Blue	389
8	Lord Jeffs	Lord Jeffs	532
9	Bobcats	Bobcats	532

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT	Sailors
Boston College	Eagles A	1	1	1	3	1	2	7	2	3	3	3	1	1	6	35	Ian Donahue '12 Isabelle Salvaterra '14
Roger Williams University	Hawks B	2	2	2	5	3	1	3	7	5	5	1	3	3	4	46	Eric Schwarm '13 Carleton Huntsberger '12
Roger Williams University	Hawks A	3	3	5	4	6	4	1	5	2	2	4	7	4	3	53	Andrew Tamblyn '13 [1-14] Daniel Goldman '13 [1-4] Megan Carlson '12 [5-6] Richard Jordan '14 [7-14]
Tufts University	Jumbos B	4	6	3	1	4	6	4	3	1	1	2	4	8	7	54	Jacob Denney '13 [1-4] Viktor Wettergren '14 [5-14] Nicole Becker '13 [1-2] Solomon Krevans '14 [3-4] Alyson Yee '12 [5-6, 13-14] Charles Proctor '14 [7-12]
Boston College	Eagles B	8	5	4	2	2	3	9	6	7	4	5	2	5	2	64	Christopher Remeika '12 Caroline Drury '14
Tufts University	Jumbos A	7	8	7	6	8	8	10	1	8	6	6	9	2	1	87	James Altreuter '11 Elizabeth Lynch '12
Harvard University	Crimson A	6	4	8	10	7	9	6	4	6	10	9	8	11	5	103	Nick Waldo '13 Jinyan Zang '13
Boston University	Terriers A	5	7	12	7	5	5	5	8	4	DNF	7	10	7	8	109	Alejandro Bancalari '13 Trevor Brown '11
University of New Hampshire	Wildcats A	10	11	10	8	9	10	2	9	9	8	10	11	9	9	125	Christopher Edwards '11 Molly Hermann '12
Harvard University	Crimson B	12	9	9	DNF	10	7	8	10	10	7	11	5	6	12	135	Luke O'Connor '14 [1-14] Diana Powell '14 [1-4] Sarah Pierson '14 [5-14]
Boston University	Terriers B	9	10	6	DNF	11	11	11	11	11	9	8	6	10	11	143	Jacob Waldman '13 [1-4] Joseph Ballow '13 [5-14] Cristina Wiley '13 [1-4]
Wellesley College	Blue A	DNF	DNS	13	9	14	DNF	13	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	192	Adrian Herr '11 Peter Manning '13
Wellesley College	Blue B	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	12	12	12	13	13	11	13	13	12	10	197	Thunder Shiviah '14 Zach Breed '13
University of New Hampshire	Wildcats B	11	12	11	11	13	13	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	223	Alysan Polito '14 Anne Little '14
Lord Jeffs	Lord Jeffs A	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	266
Bobcats	Bobcats A	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	266
Lord Jeffs	Lord Jeffs B	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	266
Bobcats	Bobcats B	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	266

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A	14A
Lord Jeffs Lord Jeffs	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Bobcats Bobcats	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Boston College Eagles	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Boston University Terriers	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Harvard University Crimson	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
University of New Hampshire Wildcats	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Roger Williams University Hawks	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Tufts University Jumbos	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Wellesley College Blue	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B	14B
Lord Jeffs Lord Jeffs	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Bobcats Bobcats	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Boston College Eagles	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Boston University Terriers	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Harvard University Crimson	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
University of New Hampshire Wildcats	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Roger Williams University Hawks	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Tufts University Jumbos	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Wellesley College Blue	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Boston College	Ian Donahue '12	Isabelle Salvaterra '14
Eagles	Christopher Remeika '12	Caroline Drury '14
Boston University	Alejandro Bancalari '13	Trevor Brown '11
Terriers	Jacob Waldman '13 [1-4] Joseph Ballow '13 [5-14]	Cristina Wiley '13 [1-4]
Harvard University	Nick Waldo '13	Jinyan Zang '13
Crimson	Luke O'Connor '14 [1-14]	Diana Powell '14 [1-4] Sarah Pierson '14 [5-14]
Roger Williams University	Andrew Tamblyn '13 [1-14]	Daniel Goldman '13 [1-4] Megan Carlson '12 [5-6] Richard Jordan '14 [7-14]
Hawks	Eric Schwarm '13	Carleton Huntsberger '12
Tufts University	James Altreuter '11	Elizabeth Lynch '12
Jumbos	Jacob Denney '13 [1-4] Viktor Wettergren '14 [5-14]	Nicole Becker '13 [1-2] Solomon Krevans '14 [3-4] Alyson Yee '12 [5-6, 13-14] Charles Proctor '14 [7-12]
University of New Hampshire	Christopher Edwards '11	Molly Hermann '12
Wildcats	Alysan Polito '14	Anne Little '14
Wellesley College	Adrian Herr '11	Peter Manning '13
Blue	Thunder Shiviah '14	Zach Breed '13

Conditions — 04/16/2011 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 63% · Pressure 1028.9 hPa

Temperature

42°F

↑ 43°F ↓ 38°F

Feels like 31°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

13.3 kn

avg · max 14.8 kn

Gusts to 29.5 kn

From ESE (112°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine6.6 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1028.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 18 kn · W 15 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Boston College: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.16)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.59 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.16 means a rating gap counts about 14% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Boston College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (29 labelled days at Boston College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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