Massachusetts Institute of Technology '13
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.69 (fleet 3.72) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–10 (44%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 8–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (5 matches) the record is 0–5 against 2.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-05-04 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.64 | 0.64 | 0–5 | 2.4 | ≤−3.00 | 5.1 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.8 | 3.50 |
| Sharpe Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| NEISA Dinghy Champs/CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 15 | 10.6 | 2.97 |
| Gill Coed Championships | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.3 | 3.68 |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 5 | 0% | — |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 17 | 4.8 | 4.50 |
| College Sailing Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.8 | 4.16 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.7 | 3.55 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.7 | 4.03 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.5 | 3.97 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 10.4 | 2.93 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.3 | 2.88 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.2 | 3.52 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.7 | 4.03 |
| ACC-qualified NE FR Scrimmage | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.2 | 2.53 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.8 | 3.75 |
| New England Dinghy Championship | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.3 | 4.09 |
| Eckerd Intersectional | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.9 | 4.08 |
| 83rd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.8 | 3.52 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor Steadman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.5 | 3.27 |
| 70th Prof Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.5 | 3.42 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.3 | 3.60 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.2 | 3.62 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 5.5 | 4.04 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.8 | 3.24 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.2 | 3.83 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.3 | 3.31 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Coed Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.7 | 3.06 |
| 82nd Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.3 | 3.62 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.7 | 4.09 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.6 | 2.94 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 11.7 | 2.86 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 20 | 12.4 | 2.62 |
| The Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 9.7 | 2.90 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.8 | 2.78 |
| 70th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.9 | 3.43 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 11.2 | 3.11 |
| Spring 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Old Guard | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.9 | 1.99 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.5 | 4.08 |
| 2010 New England | Skipper | B | 11 | 11.2 | 2.30 |
| Fall 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.9 | 2.75 |
| Ne Freshman, Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.0 | 2.16 |
| The Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.1 | 2.53 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 14.0 | 1.63 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.4 | 2.69 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.5 | 3.00 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
