Massachusetts Institute of Technology '13
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 97.96 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.086 rating points from 202 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.41 (fleet 1.95) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 8–10 (44%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 | 2 | — | 8–10 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (5 matches) the record is 0–5 against 2.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-05-04 | Fowle Trophy | crew | 3.48 | 0.48 | 0–5 | 2.4 | ≤−3.00 | 5.1 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Crew | B | 12 | 12.9 | — |
| Sharpe Trophy | Crew | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| NEISA Dinghy Champs/CG Alumni Bowl | Crew | B | 15 | 6.2 | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Crew | B | 11 | 10.7 | — |
| Fowle Trophy | Crew | TR | 5 | 0% | — |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Crew | B | 11 | 5.4 | — |
| College Sailing Western Semifinal | Crew | B | 8 | 7.4 | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Crew | B | 18 | 9.0 | — |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Crew | B | 12 | 4.9 | — |
| Moody Trophy | Crew | A | 8 | 6.5 | — |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Crew | B | 2 | 7.5 | — |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | B | 10 | 5.5 | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Crew | B | 9 | 7.0 | — |
| ACC-qualified NE FR Scrimmage | Crew | B | 6 | 8.7 | — |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | A | 12 | 7.3 | — |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| 138th Rudolph Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 4 | 10.5 | 1.65 |
| 70th Prof Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | B | 3 | 6.3 | — |
| Navy Fall | Crew | A | 12 | 8.3 | — |
| Moody Trophy | Crew | B | 3 | 7.7 | — |
| Harry Anderson | Crew | B | 4 | 6.8 | — |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Crew | B | 5 | 7.4 | — |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.2 | 2.62 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.0 | 1.89 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 13.8 | 1.61 |
| Penbay Open | Crew | B | 10 | 7.1 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | C | 9 | 3.8 | — |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 12.6 | 1.61 |
| 70th Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | A | 2 | 9.0 | — |
| Commonwealth Series | Skipper | B | 17 | 3.8 | 2.00 |
| Spring 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Old Guard | Crew | B | 8 | 7.1 | — |
| Midweek Tech Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.8 | 2.00 |
| Longfellow Invitational | Skipper | B | 13 | 3.8 | 2.57 |
| George Morris Trophy | Crew | B | 6 | 2.5 | — |
| Boston University Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.9 | 1.43 |
| Fall 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Crew | A, B | 4 | 13.2 | — |
| Ne Freshman, Nickerson Trophy | Crew | A | 2 | 6.0 | — |
| Freshmen | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.2 | 0.78 |
| Spring 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| Wellesley invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.5 | 1.47 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.1 | 1.72 |
| Fall 2008 Team page Season | |||||
| Fall Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.0 | 2.22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
