Longfellow Invitational

HostHarvard
Date04/10/2010
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Boston College	Eagles	32	56	88
2	University of Vermont	Catamounts	56	56	112
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Beavers	63	49	112
4	Boston University	Terriers	48	68	116
5	Roger Williams University	Hawks	76	60	136
6	Harvard University	Crimson	82	73	155
7	Tufts University	Jumbos	91	71	162
8	University of Vermont	Cats	103	75	178
9	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	100	102	202
10	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	111	105	216
11	McGill University	Redbirds	141	158	299
12	University of New Hampshire	Wildcats	142	174	316
13	Endicott College	Gulls	187	191	378
14	Beacons	Beacons	200	201	401
15	Wellesley College	Blue	212	206	418
16	Southern Maine	Southern Maine	218	221	439

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	TOT	Sailors
Boston College	Eagles	1	1	3	1	3	3	1	1	1	2	2	8	5	32	Ryan Mullins '13 Kelly Roy '13
Boston University	Terriers	7	3	1	10	1	1	6	5	2	1	6	2	3	48	Daniel Perkins '11 Elizabeth Santovasi '11
University of Vermont	Catamounts	10	6	2	7	5	6	3	3	3	5	3	1	2	56	Connor Aswad '12 Maya Holzhauer '13
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Beavers	11	5	4	2	4	4	2	2	8	9	1	4	7	63	Charles Field '10 Kelden Pehr '13
Roger Williams University	Hawks	4	11	5	6	7	2	4	7	7	10	7	5	1	76	Eric Schwarm '13 Alex Feldman '12
Harvard University	Crimson	8	4	10	4	6	7	5	4	4	6	8	3	13	82	Colin Santangelo '11 [1-6] Sam Millham '13 [7-13] Jinyan Zang '13 [1-6]
Tufts University	Jumbos	6	10	8	9	10	10	9	6	6	3	4	6	4	91	Owen Richardson '10 [1-6] James Altreuter '11 [7-13] Erica Siepman '10 [1-6] Ruth Summers '12 [7-13]
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	5	2	11	3	2	5	10	10	11	7	11	11	12	100	Jeff Goodrich '12 [1-6] Tom Charpentier '10 [7-13] Katharine O'Brien '12 [1-6] Zachary Fox '13 [7-13]
University of Vermont	Cats	3	7	7	8	11	DNF	7	12	5	4	5	9	8	103	Alden Winder '12 Courtney Crowley '12
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	9	9	6	5	8	9	11	9	10	8	9	12	6	111	Tevis Nichols '12 Hannah Sparkman '12
McGill University	Redbirds	12	12	12	11	9	8	12	11	12	11	12	10	9	141	Emerson Krock '12 Parrish Wright '12
University of New Hampshire	Wildcats	2	8	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	8	8	9	12	10	7	10	142	Christopher Edwards '11 [1-13] Lizzie Kirk '11 [1-6] Molly Hermann '12 [7-13]
Endicott College	Gulls	DNS	13	13	DNF	DNS	DNS	13	13	DNF	13	13	13	11	187	Tucker Givose '?? Peter Hornat '12
Beacons	Beacons	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	BYE	BYE	BYE	BYE	BYE	BYE	15	200
Wellesley College	Blue	DNF	DNF	9	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	16	212	Anna Morton '13 Ann Stallings '12
Southern Maine	Southern Maine	DNF	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	14	218

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	TOT	Sailors
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Beavers	1	1	10	5	5	4	7	1	8	2	1	1	3	49	Steven Drapcho '13 Alix De Monts '13
Boston College	Eagles	3	10	1	6	1	9	3	4	7	1	2	8	1	56	Ian Donahue '12 Molly Haley '13
University of Vermont	Catamounts	10	6	2	2	4	3	2	2	5	7	4	7	2	56	Michael Sturges '13 Laura Duane '12
Roger Williams University	Hawks	6	5	5	1	9	1	4	6	3	5	5	4	6	60	Matthew Paige '13 Samy Ramadan '13
Boston University	Terriers	4	9	7	4	6	7	5	10	1	4	3	3	5	68	Adrian Law '17 Alejandra Higgins '13
Tufts University	Jumbos	5	8	6	9	3	5	6	5	4	6	8	2	4	71	Alexander Jahncke '10 [1-6] Renã©E Gagnã© '12 [7-13] Laura Liddell '12 [1-6] Midori Tanaka '12 [7-13]
Harvard University	Crimson	2	2	3	3	2	2	9	3	10	9	10	9	9	73	Jason Michas '13 [1-6] Nick Waldo '13 [7-13] William White '12 [1-6] Lauren Tiedemann '13 [7-13]
University of Vermont	Cats	7	3	4	8	7	8	1	7	6	3	6	5	10	75	Hunter Mumma '12 Matthew Goldman '13
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	8	4	8	10	10	10	8	9	2	10	9	6	8	102	James Rohman '13 [1-6] Ruth Bodell '13 [7-13] Clare-Elizabeth Henry '12 [1-6] Molly Clements '13 [7-13]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	9	7	9	7	8	6	10	8	9	8	7	10	7	105	Neil Forrester '12 Teresa Gblin '11
McGill University	Redbirds	12	11	13	12	DNF	11	12	12	11	12	12	12	11	158	Stephanie Clement '12 Peter Sinnott '13
University of New Hampshire	Wildcats	DNS	DNS	11	11	DNS	DNS	11	11	12	11	11	11	DNS	174	Whit Durant '12 Andrew Angione '13
Endicott College	Gulls	13	12	14	14	DNS	DNS	13	13	13	14	DNS	DNS	DNS	191	Kate Bispham '?? Cate Brady '??
Beacons	Beacons	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	BYE	BYE	BYE	BYE	BYE	201
Wellesley College	Blue	11	DNF	12	13	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	206	Julia Vannoni '13 Lilian Gong '12
Southern Maine	Southern Maine	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	221

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.050+0.05

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (43 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A
Boston College Eagles	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7
Boston University Terriers	2	2	1	1	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9
Endicott College Gulls	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	16	16	15	15	14
Harvard University Crimson	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11
Beacons Beacons	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2	3
McGill University Redbirds	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2
University of New Hampshire Wildcats	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15
Roger Williams University Hawks	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4
Southern Maine Southern Maine	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	1
Tufts University Jumbos	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6
University of Vermont Catamounts	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8
University of Vermont Cats	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5
Wellesley College Blue	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B
Boston College Eagles	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Boston University Terriers	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Endicott College Gulls	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	1
Harvard University Crimson	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	15	15	2
Beacons Beacons	15	15	17	17	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
McGill University Redbirds	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	1	1	3
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	13	13	2	2	4
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	1	1	3	3	5
University of New Hampshire Wildcats	11	11	13	13	15	15	11	11	2	2	4	4	6
Roger Williams University Hawks	12	12	14	14	16	16	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
Southern Maine Southern Maine	13	13	15	15	17	17	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Tufts University Jumbos	14	14	16	16	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
University of Vermont Catamounts	16	16	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
University of Vermont Cats	17	17	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Wellesley College Blue	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Boston College	Ryan Mullins '13	Kelly Roy '13
Eagles	Ian Donahue '12	Molly Haley '13
Boston University	Daniel Perkins '11	Elizabeth Santovasi '11
Terriers	Adrian Law '17	Alejandra Higgins '13
Bowdoin College	Jeff Goodrich '12 [1-6] Tom Charpentier '10 [7-13]	Katharine O'Brien '12 [1-6] Zachary Fox '13 [7-13]
Polar Bears	James Rohman '13 [1-6] Ruth Bodell '13 [7-13]	Clare-Elizabeth Henry '12 [1-6] Molly Clements '13 [7-13]
Endicott College	Tucker Givose '??	Peter Hornat '12
Gulls	Kate Bispham '??	Cate Brady '??
Harvard University	Colin Santangelo '11 [1-6] Sam Millham '13 [7-13]	Jinyan Zang '13 [1-6]
Crimson	Jason Michas '13 [1-6] Nick Waldo '13 [7-13]	William White '12 [1-6] Lauren Tiedemann '13 [7-13]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Charles Field '10	Kelden Pehr '13
Beavers	Steven Drapcho '13	Alix De Monts '13
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tevis Nichols '12	Hannah Sparkman '12
Engineers	Neil Forrester '12	Teresa Gblin '11
McGill University	Emerson Krock '12	Parrish Wright '12
Redbirds	Stephanie Clement '12	Peter Sinnott '13
Roger Williams University	Eric Schwarm '13	Alex Feldman '12
Hawks	Matthew Paige '13	Samy Ramadan '13
Tufts University	Owen Richardson '10 [1-6] James Altreuter '11 [7-13]	Erica Siepman '10 [1-6] Ruth Summers '12 [7-13]
Jumbos	Alexander Jahncke '10 [1-6] Renã©E Gagnã© '12 [7-13]	Laura Liddell '12 [1-6] Midori Tanaka '12 [7-13]
University of New Hampshire	Christopher Edwards '11 [1-13]	Lizzie Kirk '11 [1-6] Molly Hermann '12 [7-13]
Wildcats	Whit Durant '12	Andrew Angione '13
University of Vermont	Connor Aswad '12	Maya Holzhauer '13
Catamounts	Michael Sturges '13	Laura Duane '12
University of Vermont	Alden Winder '12	Courtney Crowley '12
Cats	Hunter Mumma '12	Matthew Goldman '13
Wellesley College	Anna Morton '13	Ann Stallings '12
Blue	Julia Vannoni '13	Lilian Gong '12

Conditions — 04/10/2010 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 42% · Pressure 1016.9 hPa

Temperature

49°F

↑ 56°F ↓ 40°F

Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

12.5 kn

avg · max 14.7 kn

Gusts to 31.3 kn

From W (277°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover41% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1016.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 16 kn · W 12 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Harvard: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.03

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.35 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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