Wood Trophy @ SRU

HostSalve Regina
Date03/12/2011
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
Boat420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Tufts University	Jumbos	43	41	84
2	Brown University	Bears	57	30	87
3	Salve Regina University	Seahawks 1	42	47	89
4	Connecticut College	Camels	40	57	97
5	Salve Regina University	Seahawks 2	55	54	109
6	University of Rhode Island	Rams	70	76	146
7	Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	76	77	153
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Beavers	98	71	169
9	Northeastern University	Huskies	99	117	216
10	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	107	118	225
11	Middlebury College	Panthers	112	120	232
12	Brandeis University	Judges	140	131	271

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
Connecticut College	Camels	2	2	1	2	2	1	9	4	2	1	10	4	40	Wells Bacon '11 Ig Schottlaender '14
Salve Regina University	Seahawks 1	1	6	2	4	1	4	4	3	1	3	2	11	42	Patrick Clancy '10 Hayley Blundell '13
Tufts University	Jumbos	5	3	5	5	5	5	1	2	4	2	3	3	43	Massimo Soriano '12 [1-12] Margaret Rew '11 [1-6, 9-12] David Liebenberg '14 [7-8]
Salve Regina University	Seahawks 2	7	1	4	1	3	6	10	1	11	5	5	1	55	Peter Pellegrini '12 Sarah Muzyka '12
Brown University	Bears	4	5	3	3	4	3	3	5	10	4	11	2	57	Nikolas Osvalds '11 [1-12] Sarah Ebert '12 [1-8] Margot Elmaleh '12 [9-12]
University of Rhode Island	Rams	3	4	7	7	7	7	5	6	6	7	6	5	70	Weston Barlow '11 William Snyder '13
Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	6	7	6	6	6	2	2	DSQ	5	6	9	8	76	Christopher Poole '13 James Gorman '13
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Beavers	12	12	8	11	10	10	6	8	3	10	1	7	98	Tevis Nichols '12 [1-8] Steven Drapcho '13 [9-12] Grace Young '14 [1-8] Eben Freeman '13 [9-12]
Northeastern University	Huskies	8	9	9	8	8	9	7	10	8	9	4	10	99	Ryan White '11 Sydney Rey '13
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	11	8	11	9	11	8	11	7	7	11	7	6	107	Sarah Fiske '13 Katharine O'Brien '12
Middlebury College	Panthers	10	11	10	10	9	11	8	9	9	8	8	9	112	Nicholas Dragone '14 Kathryn Desutter '13
Brandeis University	Judges	9	10	12	12	12	12	12	DNF	12	12	12	12	140	Jared Dunn '13 [1-6] John Fonte '12 [7-12] Alison White '13 [1-6] Leigh Nusbaum '11 [7-12]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
Brown University	Bears	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	5	1	8	4	5	30	Drew Shea '14 [1-6] Tyler Rice '14 [7-12] Michael Yanagisawa '13 [1-6] Helen Lord '14 [7-12]
Tufts University	Jumbos	2	5	2	5	3	2	3	1	4	6	2	6	41	Nicolas Russo-Larsson '12 [1-12] Sally Levinson '11 [1-4, 7-12] David Liebenberg '14 [5-6]
Salve Regina University	Seahawks 1	4	6	6	6	4	5	4	2	2	2	5	1	47	Robert Lippincott '14 Christopher Jensen '14
Salve Regina University	Seahawks 2	3	4	5	2	10	12	2	4	3	3	3	3	54	Matthew Schon '11 [1-6] Kyle Carney '13 [7-12] Mary Zeolla '13 [1-6]
Connecticut College	Camels	12	2	3	DNF	2	3	5	8	5	1	1	2	57	Elizabeth Whipple '12 [1-12] Claire Sacco '13 [1-4, 9-12] Stephen Sweriduk '12 [5-8]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Beavers	7	3	8	3	6	7	7	3	6	4	8	9	71	Hannah Sparkman '12 [1-6] Katii Gullick '12 [7-12] Claire Derosa '11 [1-6] Jacqueline Soegaard '12 [7-12]
University of Rhode Island	Rams	8	7	4	7	7	6	6	7	7	7	6	4	76	Andrew Moakes '13 Samuel Morley '14
Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	5	8	7	4	5	4	8	6	10	5	7	8	77	Christopher Hulse '12 [1-12] Hadley Neale '13 [1-2] Andrew Mchenry '13 [3-12]
Northeastern University	Huskies	6	12	10	11	11	8	9	DSQ	11	9	10	7	117	Jessica Hoffman '14 [1-12] Angela Lukstein '11 [1-4, 11-12] Becker Awqatty '14 [5-10]
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	9	9	9	10	8	9	10	11	12	10	11	10	118	Tom Peabody '14 Leah Hughes '11
Middlebury College	Panthers	11	10	12	8	9	10	11	9	8	12	9	11	120	Ted Netland '14 Anna Briggs '12
Brandeis University	Judges	10	11	11	9	12	11	12	10	9	11	12	DNS	131	Andrea Verdeja '14 [1-6] Jeremy Siegel '12 [7-12] Helaine Meyer '14 [1-6] Davida Judelson '12 [7-12]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (21 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7
Brandeis University Judges	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
Brown University Bears	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Connecticut College Camels	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9
Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
Middlebury College Panthers	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11
Northeastern University Huskies	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	1	1
University of Rhode Island Rams	12	12	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5
Salve Regina University Seahawks 1	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	1	1	2	2
Salve Regina University Seahawks 2	10	10	11	11	12	12	1	1	2	2	3	3
Tufts University Jumbos	11	11	12	12	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7
Brandeis University Judges	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
Brown University Bears	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Connecticut College Camels	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9
Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
Middlebury College Panthers	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11
Northeastern University Huskies	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	1	1
University of Rhode Island Rams	12	12	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5
Salve Regina University Seahawks 1	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	1	1	2	2
Salve Regina University Seahawks 2	10	10	11	11	12	12	1	1	2	2	3	3
Tufts University Jumbos	11	11	12	12	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Bowdoin College	Sarah Fiske '13	Katharine O'Brien '12
Polar Bears	Tom Peabody '14	Leah Hughes '11
Brandeis University	Jared Dunn '13 [1-6] John Fonte '12 [7-12]	Alison White '13 [1-6] Leigh Nusbaum '11 [7-12]
Judges	Andrea Verdeja '14 [1-6] Jeremy Siegel '12 [7-12]	Helaine Meyer '14 [1-6] Davida Judelson '12 [7-12]
Brown University	Nikolas Osvalds '11 [1-12]	Sarah Ebert '12 [1-8] Margot Elmaleh '12 [9-12]
Bears	Drew Shea '14 [1-6] Tyler Rice '14 [7-12]	Michael Yanagisawa '13 [1-6] Helen Lord '14 [7-12]
Connecticut College	Wells Bacon '11	Ig Schottlaender '14
Camels	Elizabeth Whipple '12 [1-12]	Claire Sacco '13 [1-4, 9-12] Stephen Sweriduk '12 [5-8]
Maine Maritime Academy	Christopher Poole '13	James Gorman '13
Mariners	Christopher Hulse '12 [1-12]	Hadley Neale '13 [1-2] Andrew Mchenry '13 [3-12]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tevis Nichols '12 [1-8] Steven Drapcho '13 [9-12]	Grace Young '14 [1-8] Eben Freeman '13 [9-12]
Beavers	Hannah Sparkman '12 [1-6] Katii Gullick '12 [7-12]	Claire Derosa '11 [1-6] Jacqueline Soegaard '12 [7-12]
Middlebury College	Nicholas Dragone '14	Kathryn Desutter '13
Panthers	Ted Netland '14	Anna Briggs '12
Northeastern University	Ryan White '11	Sydney Rey '13
Huskies	Jessica Hoffman '14 [1-12]	Angela Lukstein '11 [1-4, 11-12] Becker Awqatty '14 [5-10]
Salve Regina University	Patrick Clancy '10	Hayley Blundell '13
Seahawks 1	Robert Lippincott '14	Christopher Jensen '14
Salve Regina University	Peter Pellegrini '12	Sarah Muzyka '12
Seahawks 2	Matthew Schon '11 [1-6] Kyle Carney '13 [7-12]	Mary Zeolla '13 [1-6]
Tufts University	Massimo Soriano '12 [1-12]	Margaret Rew '11 [1-6, 9-12] David Liebenberg '14 [7-8]
Jumbos	Nicolas Russo-Larsson '12 [1-12]	Sally Levinson '11 [1-4, 7-12] David Liebenberg '14 [5-6]
University of Rhode Island	Weston Barlow '11	William Snyder '13
Rams	Andrew Moakes '13	Samuel Morley '14

Conditions — 03/12/2011 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 65% · Pressure 1009.5 hPa

Temperature

43°F

↑ 46°F ↓ 37°F

Feels like 33°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

12.7 kn

avg · max 14.1 kn

Gusts to 29.2 kn

From WSW (239°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover34% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1009.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 18 kn · W 12 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Salve Regina: a favourites’ day (+0.05)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.02

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.04 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Salve Regina by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (43 labelled days at Salve Regina).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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