Bowdoin College '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.05 (fleet 2.83) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 51–38 (57%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 3 | 12–14 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 5 | 39–24 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (43 matches) the record is 22–21 against 20.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 2.93 | 2.32 | 1–6 | 1.6 | −0.62 | 0.2 | 85% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 2.92 | 2.09 | 4–6 | 5.7 | −0.83 | 1.0 | 94% |
| 2014-03-15 | Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.86 | 3.82 | 7–2 | 5.9 | +0.96 | 0.8 | 27% |
| 2013-05-04 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 2.86 | 3.76 | 2–3 | 1.2 | +0.90 | 0.5 | 34% |
| 2013-04-20 | Staake Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.95 | 3.66 | 8–4 | 6.4 | +0.71 | 0.8 | 23% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
