Tufts University '14
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 87.92 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.111 rating points from 35 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.42 (fleet 3.34) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 94–74 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 5 | 56–36 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 4–6 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 3 | 28–24 | — |
| Fall 2012 | 1 | 6–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (121 matches) the record is 73–48 against 64.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+8.6). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-05-31 | APS Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.46 | 3.09 | 11–11 | 12.3 | −0.37 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 3.28 | 4.17 | 11–5 | 8.1 | +0.89 | 1.8 | 10% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.12 | 4.54 | 16–6 | 10.2 | +1.42 | 5.7 | 1% |
| 2014-03-22 | Jan T. Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.11 | 3.28 | 10–7 | 9.4 | +0.18 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.25 | 3.10 | 8–7 | 8.4 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2013-11-09 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.22 | 2.16 | 4–6 | 6.2 | −1.06 | 1.7 | 97% |
| 2013-04-06 | Friis & Marchiando Trophies | skipper | 3.32 | 4.45 | 13–6 | 9.8 | +1.13 | 2.6 | 5% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 73% | — |
| Jan T. Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 17 | 59% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Fowle New England Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 16 | 69% | — |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Skipper | B | 1 | 14.0 | — |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.2 | 3.58 |
| APS Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 22 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yngling Coed Olympians @ SRU Keelboat | Crew | A | 12 | 2.8 | — |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.0 | 3.00 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 17 | 7.7 | 3.44 |
| Harmon Cup -Sloops Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 1.9 | — |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.5 | 2.81 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | A | 3 | 13.7 | 2.66 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.5 | 3.39 |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 36% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 22 | 50% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.5 | 2.58 |
| Friis & Marchiando Trophies | Skipper | TR | 17 | 53% | — |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 17 | 4.5 | 3.92 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.9 | 3.30 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.3 | 2.39 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.0 | 2.53 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.2 | 4.72 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 15 | 5.1 | 4.00 |
| Harmon Cup 2012 Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 1.2 | — |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | A | 2 | 11.0 | — |
| Dave Perry | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.3 | 1.96 |
| Dark of Night | Skipper | A | 2 | 1.0 | 1.70 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.9 | 3.51 |
| Kruger Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 2.3 | — |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| 138th Rudolph Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 4.3 | 3.58 |
| 70th Prof Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | B | 14 | 5.6 | — |
| Harmon Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 11 | 1.7 | — |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 2 | 4.5 | 3.15 |
| Boston Harbor Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.9 | 1.17 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Crew | A | 4 | 8.5 | — |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy @ SRU | Crew | A, B | 4 | 2.0 | — |
| Veitor Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.2 | 2.91 |
| NEISA Coed Dinghy Championship | Crew | A | 8 | 4.1 | — |
| ICSA/Gill Co-ed National Championship | Crew | A, B | 3 | 13.7 | — |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Roger Williams Invitational | Skipper | A | 18 | 4.2 | 3.40 |
| Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 3.9 | — |
| Freshman Intersectional | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.9 | 3.07 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.1 | 2.60 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
