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Dave Perry

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 153
2 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 179
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 188
4 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 225
5 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 247
6 Yale University Yale University Elis 247
7 Brown University Brown University Bears 251
8 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 401
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya A 1 11 1 3 5 1 3 5 1 3 9 8 3 3 57 Dan Nickerson '15
Jamie Maffeo '15
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts A 3 4 12 5 11 7 1 1 2 1 1 6 5 2 61 Michael Booker '15
Sara Anibal '14
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 4 12 4 1 6 BKD 2 6 10 6 5 5 4 4 74 David Liebenberg '14
Caroline Atwood '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 2 6 6 11 4 8 5 4 12 2 4 1 1 13 79 Willem Sandberg '14
Julie Pringle '14
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs A 5 3 11 4 8 2 6 3 9 9 14 4 2 1 81 Max Nickbarg '14
Sarah Smith '15
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels B 8 1 3 2 14 9 4 2 4 8 2 11 11 10 89 Gabriel Salk '14
Alix Israel '15
Brown University Brown University Bears B 6 7 2 7 2 4 11 9 3 10 8 13 7 7 96 Emmett Weeks '14
Lucas Serra '13
Yale University Yale University Elis B 16 5 7 8 10 3 7 10 7 5 12 7 9 5 111 Marly Isler '16
Emily Johnson '16
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts B 11 2 10 10 1 6 12 7 8 12 6 10 12 11 118 Colby Vavolotis '13
Callagy Ross '14
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya B 9 10 5 13 12 11 13 12 5 7 7 9 10 8 131 Duncan Swain '15
Madeline Luce '13
Yale University Yale University Elis A 7 8 9 6 3 5 10 16 15 15 13 3 14 12 136 Emily Billing '13 [1-6, 12-14]
Claire Dennis '13 [7]
Zachary Foreman '13 [8-11]
Amanda Salvesen '14 [1-6]
Zachary Foreman '13 [7, 12-14]
Claire Dennis '13 [8-11]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels A 13 13 15 9 7 12 9 8 6 11 11 2 6 14 136 Jordan Bothwick '15
Katherine Andril '13
Brown University Brown University Bears A 12 9 8 12 13 10 14 15 11 4 3 12 16 16 155 Timothy Harding '15
Elizabeth Sturr '15
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs B 10 16 16 15 9 13 8 11 13 BKD 10 16 8 9 166 Eric Anderson '16
Megan Valentine '16
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies A 14 14 14 14 16 14 16 14 16 13 16 14 15 6 196 Colin Henderson '15
Lukas Scott '16
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies B 15 15 13 16 15 15 15 13 14 16 15 15 13 15 205 Luke Orchardo '16
Minot Frye '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (16 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears11223344556677
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels221116161515141413131212
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies33445566778899
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya556677889910101111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos44332211161615151414
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts6655443322111616
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs7788991010111112121313
Yale UniversityYale University Elis88776655443322

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears99101011111212131314141515
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels1010998877665544
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies11111212131314141515161611
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya1313141415151616112233
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos12121111101099887766
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts141413131212111110109988
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs151516161122334455
Yale UniversityYale University Elis1616151514141313121211111010

Conditions — 10/27/2012 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1016.3 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 63°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.4 kn
avg  ·  max 3.7 kn
Gusts to 13.2 kn
From E (94°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine6.4 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1016.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 10 kn · NE 13 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Yale: a favourites’ day (+0.10)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.07 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.01 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Yale by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled days at Yale).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →