Yale University '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 74.52 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.109 rating points from 37 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.28 (fleet 3.16) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 38–46 (45%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 6–4 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 14–4 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 11–24 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 7–14 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (63 matches) the record is 31–32 against 29.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Regatta | skipper | 3.00 | 3.11 | 6–4 | 5.8 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | skipper | 3.01 | 4.64 | 14–4 | 8.3 | +1.63 | 6.4 | <1% |
| 2014-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.87 | 1.76 | 4–14 | 7.4 | −1.11 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2014-03-29 | 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 2.79 | 2.51 | 7–10 | 7.9 | −0.28 | 0.2 | 78% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.8 | 3.37 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.5 | 2.99 |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.2 | 2.93 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.6 | 3.66 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.0 | 4.12 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.8 | 2.41 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 9.4 | 2.79 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.8 | 2.59 |
| NE Match Racing Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 3.0 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.8 | 3.56 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.7 | 2.64 |
| 73rd Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 2.8 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.2 | 3.35 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.8 | 3.12 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.5 | 2.40 |
| Duplin Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 78% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.7 | 3.37 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.5 | 3.40 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.3 | 3.00 |
| Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 3.3 | — |
| NE Match Racing Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.9 | 3.26 |
| 32nd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.8 | 3.25 |
| 35th Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.9 | 3.44 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.6 | 3.55 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 18 | 22% | — |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.6 | 2.30 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.2 | 3.10 |
| 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 41% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yngling Coed Olympians @ SRU Keelboat | Crew | A | 12 | 2.8 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.0 | 3.44 |
| 71st Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 2.0 | — |
| Dave Perry Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 2.2 | 3.51 |
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 9.1 | 2.62 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.5 | 1.86 |
| BC Central Series | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.9 | 2.98 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series Five | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.3 | 3.19 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 21 | 33% | — |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.2 | 2.07 |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Crew | C | 15 | 7.2 | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.2 | 1.91 |
| Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 2.4 | — |
| Oberg | Crew | C | 15 | 4.3 | — |
| Dave Perry | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.9 | 0.62 |
| Boston Harbor Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.5 | 1.78 |
| 2012 Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 4.4 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
