Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational

HostTufts
Date04/05/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatLark
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Tufts University	Jumbos 1	18–0
2	Brown University	Bears	14–4
3	Tufts University	Jumbos 2	13–5
4	Northeastern University	Huskies	12–6
5	Harvard University	Crimson	10–8
6	Boston College	Eagles	8–10
7	Roger Williams University	Hawks	5–13
8	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	4–14
8	Yale University	Bulldogs	4–14
10	Boston University	Terriers	2–16

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 3,412 team race matches sailed before 2014-04-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 71 of 90 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.442 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.23 ± 0.21: an orderly event, more orderly than 69% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Tufts University Jumbos 1	2	9.84 school +0.07, home +0.37	Charles Proctor / Elizabeth Keys 2.95 Dan Nickerson / Jamie Maffeo 3.17 Willem Sandberg / Mara Porter 3.26 16–0 Willem Sandberg / Amanda Sommi 3.21 2–0	84%	18–0 (100%)	+2.9
2	Brown University Bears	3	8.62 school +0.45	Nathan Allman / Henry Sharpe 2.73 Timothy Harding / Olivia Lord 2.43 James Barry / Katherine Sudol	63%	14–4 (78%)	+2.7
3	Tufts University Jumbos 2	1	9.93 school +0.07, home +0.37	Duncan Swain / Julie Pringle 3.35 Viktor Wettergren / Caroline Atwood Ben Weigel / Hannah Duggan 3.48	85%	13–5 (72%)	−2.3
4	Northeastern University Huskies	6	7.73	Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk / Margo Blagden 3.13 Conor Lodge / Estelle Beguin 2.72 Victoria Mcgruer / Elizabeth Sczerzenie 1.79	43%	12–6 (67%)	+4.3
5	Harvard University Crimson	5	8.09 school −0.26	Marek Zaleski / Emma Wheeler 3.14 Richard Bergsund / Bennett Capozzi 2.39 Matthew Mollerus / Olivia Kjorlien 2.72	51%	10–8 (56%)	+0.8
6	Boston College Eagles	4	8.23	Ryan Schmitz / Kaitlin Driscoll 2.68 Maxwell Simmons / Isabelle Salvaterra 3.42 Evan Woodford / Riley Calhoun	54%	8–10 (44%)	−1.8
7	Roger Williams University Hawks	8	7.64 school +0.10	Stewart Draheim / Sara Swanson 2.92 Mark Gargula / Shanna Savignano Jonathan Pope / Abigail Cook 2.57	41%	5–13 (28%)	−2.3
8	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	9	6.93 school +0.46	Matthew Lyons / Hunter Moeller Chester Jacobs / Jade Willey 4–12 Philip Koch / Dana Bloch 4–12 Philip Koch / Jade Willey 0–2 Chester Jacobs / Dana Bloch 0–2	27%	4–14 (22%)	−0.9
8	Yale University Bulldogs	7	7.64	Marly Isler / Clara Robertson 2.87 Eric Anderson / Megan Valentine 1.93 Mitchell Kiss / Emily Johnson 2.52	41%	4–14 (22%)	−3.4
10	Boston University Terriers	10	6.01	Jackson Chabot / Israel Alarcon Nicholas Arabia / Margaret Swanson Michael Saldi / Hannah Callahan	12%	2–16 (11%)	−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Tufts University Jumbos 1	9.84	12.84	18–0	15.1	≥+3.00	4.8	3%
4	Northeastern University Huskies	7.73	9.01	12–6	7.7	+1.29	3.9	2%
2	Brown University Bears	8.62	9.57	14–4	11.3	+0.95	1.8	10%
5	Harvard University Crimson	8.09	8.34	10–8	9.2	+0.24	0.1	43%
10	Boston University Terriers	6.01	5.93	2–16	2.1	−0.08	0.0	66%
8	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6.93	6.60	4–14	4.9	−0.33	0.2	79%
6	Boston College Eagles	8.23	7.73	8–10	9.7	−0.51	0.6	89%
7	Roger Williams University Hawks	7.64	6.92	5–13	7.3	−0.73	1.2	94%
3	Tufts University Jumbos 2	9.93	8.99	13–5	15.3	−0.93	1.7	97%
8	Yale University Bulldogs	7.64	6.54	4–14	7.4	−1.11	2.6	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Willem Sandberg	Tufts University	3.26	6.26	18–0	15.1	≥+3.00	4.8	3%
Charles Proctor	Tufts University	2.95	5.95	18–0	15.1	≥+3.00	4.8	3%
Dan Nickerson	Tufts University	3.17	6.17	18–0	15.1	≥+3.00	4.8	3%
Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk	Northeastern University	3.13	4.42	12–6	7.7	+1.29	3.9	2%
Conor Lodge	Northeastern University	2.72	4.00	12–6	7.7	+1.29	3.9	2%
Victoria Mcgruer	Northeastern University	1.79	3.08	12–6	7.7	+1.29	3.9	2%
Nathan Allman	Brown University	2.73	3.68	14–4	11.3	+0.95	1.8	10%
Timothy Harding	Brown University	2.43	3.38	14–4	11.3	+0.95	1.8	10%
James Barry	Brown University	2.67	3.62	14–4	11.3	+0.95	1.8	10%
Marek Zaleski	Harvard University	3.14	3.39	10–8	9.2	+0.24	0.1	43%
Richard Bergsund	Harvard University	2.39	2.64	10–8	9.2	+0.24	0.1	43%
Matthew Mollerus	Harvard University	2.72	2.96	10–8	9.2	+0.24	0.1	43%
Jackson Chabot	Boston University	0.82	0.73	2–16	2.1	−0.08	0.0	66%
Michael Saldi	Boston University	2.41	2.33	2–16	2.1	−0.08	0.0	66%
Philip Koch	Bowdoin College	1.97	1.64	4–14	4.9	−0.33	0.2	79%
Matthew Lyons	Bowdoin College	2.20	1.87	4–14	4.9	−0.33	0.2	79%
Chester Jacobs	Bowdoin College	1.64	1.31	4–14	4.9	−0.33	0.2	79%
Ryan Schmitz	Boston College	2.68	2.17	8–10	9.7	−0.51	0.6	89%
Maxwell Simmons	Boston College	3.42	2.91	8–10	9.7	−0.51	0.6	89%
Evan Woodford	Boston College	1.93	1.43	8–10	9.7	−0.51	0.6	89%
Mark Gargula	Roger Williams University	1.69	0.97	5–13	7.3	−0.73	1.2	94%
Jonathan Pope	Roger Williams University	2.57	1.84	5–13	7.3	−0.73	1.2	94%
Duncan Swain	Tufts University	3.35	2.42	13–5	15.3	−0.93	1.7	97%
Viktor Wettergren	Tufts University	2.47	1.54	13–5	15.3	−0.93	1.7	97%
Ben Weigel	Tufts University	3.48	2.54	13–5	15.3	−0.93	1.7	97%
Marly Isler	Yale University	2.87	1.76	4–14	7.4	−1.11	2.6	99%
Eric Anderson	Yale University	1.93	0.82	4–14	7.4	−1.11	2.6	99%
Mitchell Kiss	Yale University	2.52	1.41	4–14	7.4	−1.11	2.6	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Brown University Bears	Yale University Bulldogs	72%
1	2	Harvard University Crimson	Roger Williams University Hawks	67%
1	3	Boston College Eagles	Boston University Terriers	93%
1	4	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	98%
1	5	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Northeastern University Huskies	90%
1	6	Brown University Bears	Roger Williams University Hawks	73%
1	7	Yale University Bulldogs	Boston College Eagles	34%	upset
1	8	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Harvard University Crimson	86%
1	9	Northeastern University Huskies	Boston University Terriers	88%
1	10	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	97%
1	11	Boston College Eagles	Roger Williams University Hawks	66%
1	12	Brown University Bears	Tufts University Jumbos 2	20%	upset
1	13	Northeastern University Huskies	Yale University Bulldogs	54%
1	14	Harvard University Crimson	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	82%
1	15	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Boston University Terriers	98%
1	16	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Boston College Eagles	85%
1	17	Northeastern University Huskies	Roger Williams University Hawks	54%
1	18	Brown University Bears	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	86%
1	19	Boston University Terriers	Yale University Bulldogs	16%	upset
1	20	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Harvard University Crimson	86%
1	21	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Northeastern University Huskies	90%
1	22	Boston College Eagles	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	80%
1	23	Roger Williams University Hawks	Boston University Terriers	84%
1	24	Brown University Bears	Harvard University Crimson	62%
1	25	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Yale University Bulldogs	91%
1	26	Northeastern University Huskies	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	70%
1	27	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Boston University Terriers	98%
1	28	Boston College Eagles	Harvard University Crimson	53%
1	29	Roger Williams University Hawks	Yale University Bulldogs	50%
1	30	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Brown University Bears	77%
1	31	Boston University Terriers	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	29%	upset
1	32	Northeastern University Huskies	Harvard University Crimson	41%	upset
1	33	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Yale University Bulldogs	91%
1	34	Brown University Bears	Boston College Eagles	59%
1	35	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Roger Williams University Hawks	90%
1	36	Harvard University Crimson	Boston University Terriers	89%
1	37	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Yale University Bulldogs	33%	upset
1	38	Northeastern University Huskies	Brown University Bears	29%	upset
1	39	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Roger Williams University Hawks	91%
1	40	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Boston College Eagles	83%
1	41	Harvard University Crimson	Yale University Bulldogs	61%
1	42	Brown University Bears	Boston University Terriers	93%
1	43	Roger Williams University Hawks	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	66%
1	44	Northeastern University Huskies	Boston College Eagles	37%	upset
1	45	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Tufts University Jumbos 2	48%	upset
2	46	Northeastern University Huskies	Harvard University Crimson	41%	upset
2	47	Boston College Eagles	Boston University Terriers	90%
2	48	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Roger Williams University Hawks	91%
2	49	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	94%
2	50	Brown University Bears	Yale University Bulldogs	73%
2	51	Northeastern University Huskies	Boston College Eagles	37%	upset
2	52	Harvard University Crimson	Tufts University Jumbos 2	14%	upset
2	53	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Boston University Terriers	98%
2	54	Roger Williams University Hawks	Yale University Bulldogs	50%
2	55	Brown University Bears	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	83%
2	56	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Boston College Eagles	84%
2	57	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Northeastern University Huskies	89%
2	58	Yale University Bulldogs	Harvard University Crimson	40%	upset
2	59	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Boston University Terriers	73%
2	60	Brown University Bears	Roger Williams University Hawks	73%
2	61	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Tufts University Jumbos 2	47%	upset
2	62	Boston College Eagles	Yale University Bulldogs	64%
2	63	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Northeastern University Huskies	35%	upset
2	64	Harvard University Crimson	Roger Williams University Hawks	60%
2	65	Brown University Bears	Boston University Terriers	93%
2	66	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Yale University Bulldogs	89%
2	67	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	94%
2	68	Boston College Eagles	Roger Williams University Hawks	63%
2	69	Northeastern University Huskies	Boston University Terriers	83%
2	70	Harvard University Crimson	Brown University Bears	36%	upset
2	71	Yale University Bulldogs	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	64%
2	72	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Roger Williams University Hawks	89%
2	73	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Boston University Terriers	98%
2	74	Harvard University Crimson	Boston College Eagles	46%	upset
2	75	Brown University Bears	Northeastern University Huskies	72%
2	76	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Roger Williams University Hawks	37%	upset
2	77	Yale University Bulldogs	Boston University Terriers	83%
2	78	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Harvard University Crimson	85%
2	79	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Northeastern University Huskies	90%
2	80	Brown University Bears	Boston College Eagles	61%
2	81	Roger Williams University Hawks	Boston University Terriers	83%
2	82	Harvard University Crimson	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	71%
2	83	Northeastern University Huskies	Yale University Bulldogs	50%
2	84	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Boston College Eagles	82%
2	85	Brown University Bears	Tufts University Jumbos 2	22%	upset
2	86	Harvard University Crimson	Boston University Terriers	87%
2	87	Northeastern University Huskies	Roger Williams University Hawks	50%
2	88	Boston College Eagles	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	74%
2	89	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Yale University Bulldogs	90%
2	90	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Brown University Bears	74%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	1	Bears	2	Huskies	Crimson	Eagles	Hawks	Bears	Bulldogs	Terriers
Tufts University Jumbos 1	16–2	✕	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	7–2	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos 2	16–2	✕	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	7–2	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	4–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	4–5	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L
Yale University Bulldogs	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L
Boston University Terriers	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	1	Bears	2	Huskies	Crimson	Eagles	Hawks	Bears	Bulldogs	Terriers
Tufts University Jumbos 1	15–3	✕	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	7–2	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos 2	15–3	✕	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	5–4	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	6–3	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W
Boston College Eagles	4–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	✕	L	W
Yale University Bulldogs	3–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	✕	W
Boston University Terriers	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
2	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
3	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
4	Jumbos 2	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
5	Jumbos 1	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
6	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
7	Bulldogs	3-4-6	def.	Eagles	1-2-5 DSQ
8	Jumbos 2	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
9	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
10	Jumbos 1	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
11	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
12	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos 2	2-4-5
13	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
14	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6
15	Jumbos 1	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
16	Jumbos 2	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
17	Huskies	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
18	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
19	Terriers	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
20	Jumbos 1	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
21	Jumbos 2	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
22	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
23	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
24	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
25	Jumbos 1	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
26	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
27	Jumbos 2	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
28	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
29	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
30	Jumbos 1	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
31	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
32	Huskies	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
33	Jumbos 2	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
34	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
35	Jumbos 1	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
36	Crimson	2-4-5	def.	Terriers	1-3-6 DSQ
37	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
38	Huskies	1-4-5 DSQ	def.	Bears	2-3-6 DSQ
39	Jumbos 2	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
40	Jumbos 1	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
41	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
42	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
43	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
44	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
45	Jumbos 1	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos 2	1-5-6
46	Huskies	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
47	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
48	Jumbos 2	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
49	Jumbos 1	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
50	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
51	Huskies	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
52	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos 2	2-5-6
53	Jumbos 1	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
54	Hawks	2-3-6	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-5 RAF
55	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
56	Jumbos 2	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
57	Jumbos 1	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
58	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
59	Polar Bears	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
60	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
61	Jumbos 1	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos 2	4-5-6
62	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
63	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
64	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
65	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
66	Jumbos 1	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
67	Jumbos 2	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
68	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
69	Huskies	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
70	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
71	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
72	Jumbos 1	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
73	Jumbos 2	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
74	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
75	Bears	3-4-5	def.	Huskies	1-2-6 DSQ
76	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
77	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
78	Jumbos 1	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
79	Jumbos 2	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
80	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
81	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
82	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
83	Huskies	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
84	Jumbos 1	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
85	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos 2	1-4-6
86	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
87	Huskies	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
88	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
89	Jumbos 2	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
90	Jumbos 1	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Tufts University	Jumbos 1	Charles Proctor '14 Dan Nickerson '15 Willem Sandberg '14	Elizabeth Keys '14 Jamie Maffeo '15 Amanda Sommi '16 Mara Porter '14
Brown University	Bears	James Barry '16 Nathan Allman '16 Timothy Harding '15	Katherine Sudol '16 Henry Sharpe '17 Olivia Lord '17
Tufts University	Jumbos 2	Ben Weigel '14 Duncan Swain '15 Viktor Wettergren '14	Hannah Duggan '15 Julie Pringle '14 Caroline Atwood '16
Northeastern University	Huskies	Conor Lodge '14 Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk '14 Victoria Mcgruer '17	Estelle Beguin '14 Margo Blagden '16 Elizabeth Sczerzenie '15
Harvard University	Crimson	Marek Zaleski '16 Matthew Mollerus '17 Richard Bergsund '15	Emma Wheeler '17 Olivia Kjorlien '17 Bennett Capozzi '17
Boston College	Eagles	Evan Woodford '14 Maxwell Simmons '17 Ryan Schmitz '15	Riley Calhoun '16 Isabelle Salvaterra '14 Kaitlin Driscoll '16
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Jonathan Pope '17 Mark Gargula '14 Stewart Draheim '16	Abigail Cook '15 Shanna Savignano '15 Sara Swanson '16
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Chester Jacobs '17 Matthew Lyons '17 Philip Koch '16	Jade Willey '17 Dana Bloch '17 Hunter Moeller '17
Yale University	Bulldogs	Eric Anderson '16 Marly Isler '16 Mitchell Kiss '17	Megan Valentine '16 Clara Robertson '17 Emily Johnson '16
Boston University	Terriers	Jackson Chabot '14 Michael Saldi '15 Nicholas Arabia '16	Israel Alarcon '17 Hannah Callahan '16 Margaret Swanson '16

Conditions — 04/05/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 68% · Pressure 1006.5 hPa

Temperature

48°F

↑ 51°F ↓ 40°F

Feels like 40°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.1 kn

avg · max 12.4 kn

Gusts to 24.5 kn

From WNW (284°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover93% Sunshine5.9 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1006.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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