Northeastern University '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 48.46 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.078 rating points from 269 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 16–22 (42%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 2 | — | 16–22 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (38 matches) the record is 16–22 against 11.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | crew | 3.13 | 4.42 | 12–6 | 7.7 | +1.29 | 3.9 | 2% |
| 2014-03-22 | Staake Trophy | crew | 2.78 | 3.03 | 4–16 | 3.4 | +0.25 | 0.1 | 45% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Women's Women's | Crew | B | 3 | 5.0 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Crew | A | 16 | 13.0 | — |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 9.2 | — |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Crew | A | 15 | 7.9 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 5.6 | — |
| Professor No Ringer | Crew | A | 4 | 2.5 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 9.4 | — |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Crew | C | 13 | 12.2 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 1 | Crew | A | 9 | 4.3 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 9.2 | — |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 10.8 | — |
| Central Series, Savin Hill | Crew | A | 7 | 10.9 | — |
| Admiral Alymers | Crew | A | 11 | 6.1 | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Staake Trophy | Crew | TR | 20 | 20% | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Crew | TR | 18 | 67% | — |
| Icebreaker Regatta | Crew | A | 6 | 6.0 | — |
| 70th Greater Boston Oberg Trophy | Crew | A | 12 | 4.9 | — |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Crew | A | 14 | 11.5 | — |
| BU Trophy | Crew | A | 10 | 4.7 | — |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Crew | A | 14 | 8.7 | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 16.0 | — |
| Toni Deutsch Trophy (women's) Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 8.9 | — |
| RI States, 2nd Sister Esther Annual | Crew | A | 12 | 7.2 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 9 | 11.4 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Crew | B | 18 | 12.0 | — |
| Bowdoin Women's Invite Women's | Crew | B | 15 | 9.3 | — |
| BC Central Series | Crew | A | 3 | 11.0 | — |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg @ BU by NU | Crew | B | 12 | 12.3 | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Crew | A | 13 | 11.5 | — |
| Central Series #2 @ BU | Crew | A | 3 | 7.7 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
