Northeastern University '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.87 (fleet 2.58) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 34–79 (30%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 5–27 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 3–4 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 20–42 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 6–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (101 matches) the record is 28–73 against 27.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-25 | Staake Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.57 | 2.22 | 2–18 | 2.7 | −0.35 | 0.2 | 78% |
| 2017-03-18 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.48 | 1.06 | 3–9 | 6.0 | −1.41 | 2.9 | 99% |
| 2016-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Regatta | skipper | 2.39 | 2.95 | 3–4 | 2.2 | +0.55 | 0.3 | 37% |
| 2014-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 1.79 | 3.08 | 12–6 | 7.7 | +1.29 | 3.9 | 2% |
| 2014-03-29 | Herring Pond Team Race | skipper | 1.47 | 0.68 | 4–6 | 5.0 | −0.79 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 2014-03-22 | Staake Trophy | skipper | 1.68 | 1.93 | 4–16 | 3.4 | +0.25 | 0.1 | 45% |
| 2014-03-15 | Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | skipper | 1.53 | -1.47 | 0–14 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Staake Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 20 | 10% | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.3 | 2.59 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.1 | 1.84 |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 13.3 | 2.68 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.4 | 2.66 |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 9.4 | 2.63 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.1 | 2.39 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.8 | 2.69 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 13.7 | 2.08 |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 4 | 16.5 | 1.28 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.9 | 2.63 |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.5 | 3.37 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.2 | 2.36 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.5 | 2.96 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 14.2 | 1.61 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.3 | 3.42 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.7 | 1.92 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.5 | 2.54 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.3 | 3.02 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.7 | 2.52 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.8 | 2.21 |
| Roger Williams Invitational | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.2 | 1.75 |
| RI States, 3rd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.1 | 3.10 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 10.7 | 1.29 |
| Midweek Fly Regatta #1 | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.0 | 2.63 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.5 | 1.58 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 10 | 14.6 | 1.68 |
| Bowdoin Women's Invitational Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.9 | 1.34 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.7 | 2.18 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Staake Trophy | Skipper | TR | 20 | 20% | — |
| Reed Trophy / NEISA Women's Champs Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 12.9 | 1.70 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.8 | 1.64 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 18 | 67% | — |
| Midweek Fly Regatta #1 | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.0 | 3.70 |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 0% | — |
| Herring Pond Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 16.3 | — |
| Wellahan Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.4 | 1.91 |
| Southern Series 4 | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.8 | 1.30 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 12.6 | 1.29 |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.8 | 1.50 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.5 | 1.34 |
| Oberg @ BU by NU | Skipper | A | 12 | 12.5 | 0.67 |
| Herring Pond Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| Central Series #2 @ BU | Skipper | B | 3 | 6.3 | 1.09 |
| BU President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.6 | 1.72 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
