Herring Pond Team Race Invite

HostMass Maritime
Date03/30/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
Boat420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Tufts University	Jumbos	11–1
2	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	8–4
3	Northeastern University	Huskies	6–6
4	Bates College	Bobcats	5–7
5	University of New Hampshire	Wildcats	0–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 988 team race matches sailed before 2013-03-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 27 of 30 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.323 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Tufts University Jumbos	1	6.48 school +0.16	Solomon Krevans / Chrisanthe Salemis 1.55 Rolfe Glover / Kate Wasynczuk 2.01 James Moody / Eliza White 2.50	89%	11–1 (92%)	+0.3
2	Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers	2	4.86 home +0.52	Daniel Barry / Kaitlyn Nanartowich Michael Reney / Leah Saunders Sean Mclaughlin / Matthew Ferlotti	57%	8–4 (67%)	+1.2
3	Northeastern University Huskies	4	4.37	Matteo Alampi / Zach Shapiro Victoria Mcgruer / Evan Gregory Becker Awqatty / Emily Robinson	46%	6–6 (50%)	+0.5
4	Bates College Bobcats	3	4.84	Tommy Holmberg / Edward Moan Samuel Scribner / Katlyn Flynn Mackenzie Macrae / Michela Moscufo	56%	5–7 (42%)	−1.8
5	University of New Hampshire Wildcats	5	0.81	Ann Sager / Amelia Connell 0.94 David Mazotas / Kayla Wagner Zachary Karakouzian / Eva Golden -0.03	2%	0–12 (0%)	−0.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	4.86	5.48	8–4	6.8	+0.62	0.5	31%
1	Tufts University	6.48	6.80	11–1	10.7	+0.32	0.1	61%
3	Northeastern University	4.37	4.61	6–6	5.6	+0.24	0.1	50%
4	Bates College	4.84	3.87	5–7	6.7	−0.97	1.2	95%
5	University of New Hampshire	0.81	-2.19	0–12	0.2	≤−3.00	0.3	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Daniel Barry	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	1.28	1.90	8–4	6.8	+0.62	0.5	31%
Michael Reney	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	1.22	1.84	8–4	6.8	+0.62	0.5	31%
Sean Mclaughlin	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	1.54	2.16	8–4	6.8	+0.62	0.5	31%
Solomon Krevans	Tufts University	1.55	1.87	11–1	10.7	+0.32	0.1	61%
Rolfe Glover	Tufts University	2.01	2.33	11–1	10.7	+0.32	0.1	61%
James Moody	Tufts University	2.50	2.82	11–1	10.7	+0.32	0.1	61%
Matteo Alampi	Northeastern University	1.14	1.38	6–6	5.6	+0.24	0.1	50%
Victoria Mcgruer	Northeastern University	1.32	1.56	6–6	5.6	+0.24	0.1	50%
Becker Awqatty	Northeastern University	1.62	1.86	6–6	5.6	+0.24	0.1	50%
Tommy Holmberg	Bates College	1.98	1.01	5–7	6.7	−0.97	1.2	95%
Samuel Scribner	Bates College	1.47	0.50	5–7	6.7	−0.97	1.2	95%
Mackenzie Macrae	Bates College	1.11	0.14	5–7	6.7	−0.97	1.2	95%
Ann Sager	University of New Hampshire	0.94	-2.06	0–12	0.2	≤−3.00	0.3	>99%
David Mazotas	University of New Hampshire	-0.47	-3.47	0–12	0.2	≤−3.00	0.3	>99%
Zachary Karakouzian	University of New Hampshire	-0.03	-3.03	0–12	0.2	≤−3.00	0.3	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Northeastern University	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	38%	upset
1	2	Tufts University	University of New Hampshire	100%
1	3	Tufts University	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	84%
1	4	Bates College	Northeastern University	59%
1	5	Tufts University	Northeastern University	89%
1	6	Bates College	University of New Hampshire	98%
1	7	Tufts University	Bates College	84%
1	8	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	University of New Hampshire	98%
1	9	Northeastern University	University of New Hampshire	97%
1	10	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Bates College	50%
2	11	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Bates College	50%
2	12	Northeastern University	University of New Hampshire	97%
2	13	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	University of New Hampshire	98%
2	14	Tufts University	Bates College	83%
2	15	Bates College	University of New Hampshire	98%
2	16	Tufts University	Northeastern University	89%
2	17	Northeastern University	Bates College	38%	upset
2	18	Tufts University	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	83%
2	19	Tufts University	University of New Hampshire	100%
2	20	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Northeastern University	62%
3	21	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Northeastern University	62%
3	22	Tufts University	University of New Hampshire	100%
3	23	Tufts University	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	83%
3	24	Bates College	Northeastern University	61%
3	25	Northeastern University	Tufts University	11%	upset
3	26	Bates College	University of New Hampshire	98%
3	27	Tufts University	Bates College	84%
3	28	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	University of New Hampshire	98%
3	29	Northeastern University	University of New Hampshire	97%
3	30	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Bates College	50%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Jumbos	Buccaneers	Huskies	Bobcats	Wildcats
Tufts University Jumbos	4–0	✕	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers	2–2	L	✕	L	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	2–2	L	W	✕	L	W
Bates College Bobcats	2–2	L	L	W	✕	W
University of New Hampshire Wildcats	0–4	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Jumbos	Buccaneers	Huskies	Bobcats	Wildcats
Tufts University Jumbos	4–0	✕	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers	3–1	L	✕	W	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	2–2	L	L	✕	W	W
Bates College Bobcats	1–3	L	L	L	✕	W
University of New Hampshire Wildcats	0–4	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Jumbos	Buccaneers	Huskies	Bobcats	Wildcats
Tufts University Jumbos	3–1	✕	W	L	W	W
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers	3–1	L	✕	W	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	2–2	W	L	✕	L	W
Bates College Bobcats	2–2	L	L	W	✕	W
University of New Hampshire Wildcats	0–4	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Huskies	1-2-4	def.	Buccaneers	3-5-6
2	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
3	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Buccaneers	4-5-6
4	Bobcats	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
5	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Huskies	1-5-6
6	Bobcats	1-2-6	def.	Wildcats	3-4-5
7	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Bobcats	2-5-6
8	Buccaneers	1-3-5	def.	Wildcats	2-4-6
9	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
10	Buccaneers	1-3-6	def.	Bobcats	2-4-5
11	Buccaneers	1-3-6	def.	Bobcats	2-4-5
12	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
13	Buccaneers	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
14	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Bobcats	3-4-5
15	Bobcats	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
16	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Huskies	2-3-6
17	Huskies	1-2-3	def.	Bobcats	4-5-6
18	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Buccaneers	2-3-6
19	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
20	Buccaneers	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
21	Buccaneers	1-3-6	def.	Huskies	2-4-5
22	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
23	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Buccaneers	3-4-6
24	Bobcats	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
25	Huskies	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
26	Bobcats	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
27	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Bobcats	3-4-5
28	Buccaneers	2-3-4	def.	Wildcats	1-5-6
29	Huskies	2-3-4	def.	Wildcats	1-5-6
30	Buccaneers	1-4-5	def.	Bobcats	2-3-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Tufts University	Jumbos	James Moody '16 Rolfe Glover '16 Solomon Krevans '14	Eliza White '14 Kate Wasynczuk '16 Chrisanthe Salemis '16
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	Daniel Barry '15 Michael Reney '13 Sean Mclaughlin '15	Kaitlyn Nanartowich '14 Leah Saunders '16 Matthew Ferlotti '15
Northeastern University	Huskies	Becker Awqatty '14 Matteo Alampi '17 Victoria Mcgruer '17	Emily Robinson '17 Zach Shapiro '15 Evan Gregory '16
Bates College	Bobcats	Mackenzie Macrae '16 Samuel Scribner '15 Tommy Holmberg '13	Michela Moscufo '16 Katlyn Flynn '15 Edward Moan '14
University of New Hampshire	Wildcats	Ann Sager '13 David Mazotas '16 Zachary Karakouzian '16	Amelia Connell '16 Kayla Wagner '15 Eva Golden '16

Conditions — 03/30/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 59% · Pressure 1018.1 hPa

Temperature

47°F

↑ 50°F ↓ 39°F

Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.4 kn

avg · max 8.4 kn

Gusts to 13.6 kn

From WNW (302°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover25% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1018.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Mass Maritime — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Mass Maritime in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Mass Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled fleet-race days at Mass Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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