Midweek Fly Regatta #1

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 5 5
2 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 10 10
3 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 20 20
4 Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 26 26
5 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 4 27 27
6 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 6 36 36
7 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 5 38 38
8 Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 41 41
9 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 2 48 48
10 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 3 50 50
11 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 1 54 54
12 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 7 56 56
13 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 63 63
14 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 2 66 66
15 Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 79 79
16 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 1 84 84
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk '14
Estelle Beguin '14
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 2 2 2 2 2 10 Victoria Mcgruer '17
Elizabeth Sczerzenie '15
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 3 3 4 7 3 20 Kyle Joba-Woodruff '17
Sophie Goemans '17
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 7 9 3 3 4 26 Solomon Tarlin '17
Madison Sparber '17
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 4 4 6 5 6 6 27 Minot Frye '16
Eleanor Grams '18
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 6 6 4 8 8 10 36 No Show
Katherine Alfond '19
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 5 9 7 7 4 11 38 No Show
Estella Lofftus '16
Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 5 5 10 9 12 41 No Show
No Show
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 2 10 8 9 12 9 48 Christopher Voorman '14
Alexa Giovanis '17
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 3 DNF DNF 6 5 5 50 Peter Christensen '18
Lindsay Martinez '18
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 1 13 11 11 11 8 54 Erin Meltzer '14
Heather Ireland '15
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 7 8 DNF 14 10 7 56 Moussa Diolombi '15
No Show
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 12 10 15 13 13 63 Jorlyn Le Garrec '17
Megan Mcknelly '17
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 2 11 12 12 14 DNF 66 Christopher Mark '14
Taylor Corey '17
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 DNF DNF 13 15 DNF 79 Kelsey Zuch '16
Margaret Swanson '16
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 1 DNF DNF DNF 16 DNF 84 Juliette Mann '17
Jordan Sessa '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 11010101010
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 21111111111
Emmanuel CollegeEmmanuel College Saints99999
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats 11717171717
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats 21313131313
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 188888
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 21515151515
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 111111
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 222222
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 333333
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 444444
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 555555
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 666666
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 777777
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue 11414141414
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue 21212121212

Conditions — 04/08/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 90%  ·  Pressure 995.5 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.0 kn
avg  ·  max 12.8 kn
Gusts to 23.5 kn
From SSW (203°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine1.0 hrs Humidity90% Pressure995.5 hPa Rain0.12 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 13 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at MIT: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.47 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →