Boston College '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.75 (fleet 2.42) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–10 (44%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 8–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 8–10 against 9.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 1.93 | 1.43 | 8–10 | 9.7 | −0.51 | 0.6 | 89% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Savin Hill Invitational | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.4 | 1.45 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Crew | A, B | 2 | 1.5 | — |
| Central Series | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.8 | -1.07 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| BU Bridge Invitational, Central Series T | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.4 | 1.75 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Central Series 1 | Crew | B | 3 | 10.3 | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Crew | A | 3 | 3.3 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
