Brown University '15
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 1.12 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 16 | Spring 2015 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.98 (fleet 2.72) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 45–30 (60%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 5–6 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 7–8 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 27–8 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 6–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (61 matches) the record is 39–22 against 35.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.4). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-11 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.70 | 2.46 | 5–6 | 5.4 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2014-11-08 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.92 | 1.90 | 7–8 | 10.0 | −1.02 | 2.2 | 98% |
| 2014-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.43 | 3.38 | 14–4 | 11.3 | +0.95 | 1.8 | 10% |
| 2014-03-29 | 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 2.21 | 3.50 | 13–4 | 8.9 | +1.29 | 3.7 | 2% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Sportboat Invite #1 Keelboat | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.1 | 1.25 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.7 | 3.21 |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Skipper | B | 1 | 9.0 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Ross Trophy Keelboat | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.7 | -0.96 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.5 | 2.92 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 11.1 | 2.79 |
| Gardiner Island Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.7 | 1.06 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 12 | 12.7 | 2.47 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.7 | 3.78 |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.2 | 2.34 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 1 @ SRU | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.2 | 1.91 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 18 | 78% | — |
| Icebreaker Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.3 | 2.97 |
| 10th George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.1 | 0.86 |
| 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 76% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 7 | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.0 | 0.16 |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.0 | 1.74 |
| Richard B. Ross College Bowl Keelboat | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.8 | 1.35 |
| RI States, 2nd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.3 | 2.88 |
| Dave Perry Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.4 | 1.16 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.1 | 2.66 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.6 | 2.17 |
| 22nd O'Toole Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.2 | 2.86 |
| Oberg @ BU by NU | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.8 | 2.35 |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Central Series #2 @ BU | Skipper | A | 3 | 4.3 | 2.14 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.4 | 2.44 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Roger Williams Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.7 | 4.59 |
| RI State Champs, Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 15.5 | 0.46 |
| Oberg | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.5 | 1.36 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.2 | 1.37 |
| Dave Perry | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.1 | -0.13 |
| Dark of Night | Skipper | A | 3 | 10.3 | -0.87 |
| Boston Harbor Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.4 | 1.02 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 1 @ SRU | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.7 | 2.15 |
| 72nd Oberg Trophy @ BU by NU | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.2 | 1.23 |
| NEISA Central Series | Skipper | B | 13 | 4.6 | 1.57 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Boston Harbor Invitational | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.7 | 2.06 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
