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Richard B. Ross College Bowl

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 21 21
2 BUSA BUSA British U 22 22
3 Colleges of the Fenway Colleges of the Fenway Fenway 1 22 22
4 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 1 23 23
5 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 24 24
6 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 25 25
7 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 28 28
8 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 31 31
9 Williams College Williams College Ephs 42 42
10 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 45 45
11 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 2 54 54
12 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildkittens 60 60
13 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 65 65
14 Colleges of the Fenway Colleges of the Fenway Fenway 2 69 69
15 Williams College Williams College Purple Cows 70 70
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 9 4 1 5 21
BUSA BUSA British U 1 4 6 4 7 22
Colleges of the Fenway Colleges of the Fenway Fenway 1 3 6 7 5 1 22
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 1 6 7 3 3 4 23
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 8 5 2 7 2 24
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 9 2 5 6 3 25
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 4 1 1 OCS 6 28
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 10 3 8 2 8 31
Williams College Williams College Ephs 5 8 11 9 9 42
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 7 10 9 8 11 45
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 2 12 12 10 10 10 54
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildkittens 13 11 12 11 13 60
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 11 14 13 12 15 65
Colleges of the Fenway Colleges of the Fenway Fenway 2 15 13 14 13 14 69
Williams College Williams College Purple Cows 14 15 15 14 12 70
School Team Sailors
BUSA BUSA British U SkipperBryan Lee '04
CrewAnnemarije Veenland '04
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 1 SkipperTyler Durant '14
CrewColby Vickerson '17 [1-4]
CrewRegan Yeung '16 [5]
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 2 SkipperKristina Schneider '16
CrewJulie Kahn '17 [1-4]
CrewMikaela Donovan '15 [5]
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 SkipperTimothy Harding '15
CrewElizabeth Sturr '15
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 SkipperEmmett Weeks '14
CrewHenry Sharpe '17
Colleges of the Fenway Colleges of the Fenway Fenway 1 SkipperRob Dresser '14
CrewJohn O'Grady '14
Colleges of the Fenway Colleges of the Fenway Fenway 2 SkipperField Maren '16
CrewJamie Cummings '16
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson SkipperAmes Lyman '14
CrewCaitlin Watson '14 [1-4]
CrewAdam Brodheim '16 [5]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies SkipperColin Henderson '15
CrewStephen Fletcher '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya SkipperPierre DuPont '16
CrewEmily Peck '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos SkipperCasey Gowrie '16
CrewMaxwell Bennett '16
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats SkipperZachary Karakouzian '16
CrewCara Dooley '15
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildkittens SkipperAlison Deyett '17
CrewStefanie Casella '16
Williams College Williams College Ephs SkipperConor Mook '16
CrewEleanor McClements '16
Williams College Williams College Purple Cows SkipperAaron Taylor '17
CrewMichael Quakenbush '17 [1-4]
CrewPaul Lindseth '17 [5]

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  15 boats · 5 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Casey Gowrie '16Tufts University Jumbos5/51.431.95+0.5288th → 99th0.726%4.2 / 6.0
2Bryan Lee '04BUSA5/50.69u1.96+1.2757th → 99th3.510%4.4 / 8.0
2Rob Dresser '14Colleges of the Fenway Fenway 15/50.69u1.98+1.2957th → 99th3.68%4.4 / 8.0
4Tyler Durant '14Bentley University Falcons 15/50.661.97+1.3157th → 99th3.710%4.6 / 8.0
5Timothy Harding '15Brown University Bears 15/51.241.77+0.5483rd → 96th0.726%4.8 / 6.5
6Colin Henderson '15Northeastern University5/50.361.79+1.4341st → 96th4.37%5.0 / 8.9
7Emmett Weeks '14Brown University Bears 25/51.652.48+0.8493rd → 99th1.257%5.6 / 5.5
8Pierre DuPont '16Tufts University Jumbalaya5/50.571.40+0.8354th → 88th1.724%6.2 / 8.2
9Conor Mook '16Williams College Ephs5/5-0.201.00+1.199th → 74th3.322%8.4 / 10.3
10Zachary Karakouzian '16University of New Hampshire Wildcats5/50.270.88+0.6137th → 69th1.049%9.0 / 9.1
11Kristina Schneider '16Bentley University Falcons 25/50.300.54+0.2439th → 52nd0.277%10.8 / 8.9
12Alison Deyett '17University of New Hampshire Wildkittens5/5-0.600.35+0.952nd → 41st2.361%12.0 / 11.2
13Ames Lyman '14Harvard University5/51.54-0.45−1.9991st → 3rd17.6>99%13.0 / 5.8
14Field Maren '16Colleges of the Fenway Fenway 25/50.69u-0.40−1.0857th → 3rd4.199%13.8 / 7.9
15Aaron Taylor '17Williams College Purple Cows5/50.86u-1.16−2.0268th → 1st10.4>99%14.0 / 7.5

Conditions — 10/05/2013 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1019.2 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.5 kn
avg  ·  max 5.4 kn
Gusts to 11.3 kn
From ENE (62°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover86% Sunshine3.2 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1019.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →