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Southern 7

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 44
2 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 48
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 78
4 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 136
5 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 137
6 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 162
7 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 183
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Brown University Brown University Bears A 1 1 1 2 4 3 4 16 Johanna Kincaid '15
Nicole Quattrocchi '15
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks A 7 5 4 1 1 2 3 23 Mark Gargula '14
Augustina Dickinson '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 3 2 5 5 3 1 5 24 Kate Shaner '16
Colin Meade '16
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks B 6 3 2 3 2 7 2 25 Brian Firth '16
Tatiana Chiu '17
Brown University Brown University Bears B 2 7 3 4 6 5 1 28 Timothy Harding '15
Marina Cano '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 10 6 6 6 5 6 DNF 54 Casey Gowrie '16
Natalie Danziger '17
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats A 4 4 DNF 8 7 4 DNF 57 Peter Sterflinger '17
Christopher Voorman '14
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals A 11 12 8 7 10 9 6 63 Dylan Nelson '15
Katherine Walker '16
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks B 9 10 10 9 9 10 7 64 Jennifer Poole '14
Megan Vito '15
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks A 8 8 7 12 8 DNS DNF 73 Matthew Miranda '17
Crete Clifford '17
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies A 5 9 9 10 DNS DNS DNF 78 Shane Baker '17
Alexandra Rice '16
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats B 12 11 11 11 11 8 DNF 79 Erin Meltzer '14
Heather Ireland '15
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals B 14 13 12 DNS DNS DNS DNS 99 Aimee Wilkerson '17
Peter Brody '14
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies B 13 DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS DNF 105 Kimberly Jackman '16
Meghan Goode '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears2233445
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies7766554
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats3322181817
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks4455667
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks5544332
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos6677889
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals8899101011

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears10101111121213
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies16161414131312
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats11111010998
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks12121313141416
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks13131212111110
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos14141616171718
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals17171818223

Conditions — 10/26/2013 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1018.4 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 53°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.6 kn
avg  ·  max 14.0 kn
Gusts to 31.5 kn
From SW (228°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover47% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1018.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Roger Williams: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.23 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →