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Mt. Hope Bay Invitational

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 32 35 67
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 34 36 70
3 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Gold 30 49 79
4 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Blue 56 66 122
5 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 61 63 124
6 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 71 58 129
7 Brown University Brown University Bears 82 48 130
8 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 93 83 176
9 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 112 72 184
10 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 92 101 193
11 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 62 132 194
12 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 126 95 221
13 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 123 115 238
14 Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 114 136 250
15 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 142 124 266
16 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 137 149 286
17 University of Massachusetts at Boston University of Massachusetts at Boston Beacons 163 168 331
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Gold 5 6 3 6 3 1 3 1 1 1 30 Connor Brady '15
Jaye Fahey '15
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 3 3 2 1 1 4 7 4 5 2 32 Connor Corgard '16
Daniel Goldman '13
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 1 9 3 2 2 1 3 6 3 34 Willem Sandberg '14
Hannah Duggan '15
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Blue 6 2 5 7 5 5 2 11 3 10 56 Cole Rice '15
Elizabeth Teague '13
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 1 4 1 4 4 9 13 9 10 6 61 Campbell Duffy '13
Connor Adams '15
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 8 5 7 2 9 8 5 6 7 5 62 Samuel Cushing '15
Kelsey Conahan '15
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 2 11 8 13 6 3 8 5 8 7 71 Colin Murphy '15
Emily Petno '16
Brown University Brown University Bears 10 7 4 9 7 11 9 2 12 11 82 Timothy Harding '15
Nicole Quattrocchi '15
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 7 14 10 8 11 6 6 15 2 13 92 Bradley Brown '15 [1-10]
Jade Schroeder '16 [1-5]
Taylor Peace '16 [6-10]
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 9 10 12 5 8 10 11 7 9 12 93 Jana Gailiunas '16
Eva Williford '14
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 17 15 14 10 12 7 12 12 4 9 112 Laura Cartmel '14
Lindsay Moore '14
Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 16 8 6 12 10 13 4 16 15 14 114 Johannes Raatz '15
Rebecca Uttormark '16
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 11 9 16 17 16 15 14 10 11 4 123 Paige Fagan '14 [1-10]
Julianne Shimer '15 [1-4, 6-10]
Justin Marks '14 [5]
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 14 16 13 11 15 14 10 8 17 8 126 Charles Cahill '15
Matthew Charpentier '11
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 12 13 11 14 14 12 15 17 14 15 137
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 13 12 15 15 13 16 16 13 13 16 142 Brooke Doyon '13 [1-5]
James Fales '13 [6-10]
Timothy Donahoe '15 [1-5]
Kelley Connolly '13 [6-10]
University of Massachusetts at Boston University of Massachusetts at Boston Beacons 15 17 17 16 17 17 17 14 16 17 163 Michelle Guidatti '13
Shawna Denn '12
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 1 1 4 3 4 1 7 5 8 1 35 A. Tucker Atterbury '16
Breanne Baldino '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 2 2 6 1 5 3 4 5 6 36 Dan Nickerson '15
Jamie Maffeo '15
Brown University Brown University Bears 7 3 5 1 5 7 1 7 3 9 48 Emmett Weeks '14 [1-4]
Jessica Claflin '13 [5-10]
Lucas Serra '13 [1-4]
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Gold 8 5 7 2 2 3 2 1 9 10 49 Ian Hollerbach '14
Abigail Cook '15
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 3 6 1 5 15 6 11 2 2 7 58 Ian Storck '15
Alexa Krupp '15
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 4 9 3 4 3 10 6 14 6 4 63 Mark Gargula '14
Morgan Wheeler '15
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Blue 6 4 15 7 6 2 4 3 7 12 66 Alexander Rudkin '14
Ryan Topal '15
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 10 12 11 11 10 4 5 6 1 2 72 Yann Cudennec '15
Stephanie Shousha '14
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 9 7 6 10 7 12 10 15 4 3 83 Jeffrey Chace '15
Callagy Ross '14
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 13 10 8 9 8 9 8 11 11 8 95 John Cavoores '16
Ryan Hoey '16
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 14 8 9 15 9 8 13 8 12 5 101 Ellen Kintz '13 [1-10]
Joshua Moan '15 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Robert Turley '16 [3-4, 7-8]
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 5 15 10 13 13 14 9 9 13 14 115 William Dykes '15
Danielle Dubois '13
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 16 13 13 12 12 11 12 10 10 15 124 Myles Gibbs '16 [1-5]
Lyndsay Stockwell '14 [6-10]
Marta Chlus '13 [1-5]
Jemma O'Donnell '15 [6-10]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 11 16 12 8 11 15 14 16 16 13 132 Samuel Morley '14
William Snyder '13
Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 12 14 14 17 14 13 15 12 14 11 136 Alex Dion '15
Olivia Recht '15
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 15 11 16 14 17 16 16 13 15 16 149 Gregory Henkelman '13
Sarah Conley '15
University of Massachusetts at Boston University of Massachusetts at Boston Beacons 17 17 17 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 168 Maggie Mcdonald '13
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Lord Jeffs1122334455
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears2233445566
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears3344556677
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies13131414151516161717
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green4455667788
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats5566778899
University of Massachusetts at BostonUniversity of Massachusetts at Boston Beacons141415151616171711
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers77889910101111
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds667788991010
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats1515161617171122
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams16161717112233
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Blue10101111121213131414
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Gold11111212131314141515
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 18899101011111212
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 2991010111112121313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos12121313141415151616
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts171711223344

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Lord Jeffs1122334455
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears2233445566
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears3344556677
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies13131414151516161717
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green4455667788
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats5566778899
University of Massachusetts at BostonUniversity of Massachusetts at Boston Beacons141415151616171711
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers77889910101111
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds667788991010
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats1515161617171122
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams16161717112233
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Blue10101111121213131414
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Gold11111212131314141515
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 18899101011111212
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 2991010111112121313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos12121313141415151616
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts171711223344
School / Team SkipperCrew
Amherst College Amherst College Johannes Raatz '15 Rebecca Uttormark '16
Lord Jeffs Alex Dion '15 Olivia Recht '15
Brown University Brown University Timothy Harding '15 Nicole Quattrocchi '15
Bears Emmett Weeks '14 [1-4]
Jessica Claflin '13 [5-10]		 Lucas Serra '13 [1-4]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Colin Murphy '15 Emily Petno '16
Big Green Ian Storck '15 Alexa Krupp '15
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University
Wildcats Gregory Henkelman '13 Sarah Conley '15
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Charles Cahill '15 Matthew Charpentier '11
Buccaneers John Cavoores '16 Ryan Hoey '16
McGill University McGill University Laura Cartmel '14 Lindsay Moore '14
Redbirds Yann Cudennec '15 Stephanie Shousha '14
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Cole Rice '15 Elizabeth Teague '13
Blue Alexander Rudkin '14 Ryan Topal '15
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Connor Brady '15 Jaye Fahey '15
Gold Ian Hollerbach '14 Abigail Cook '15
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Connor Corgard '16 Daniel Goldman '13
Hawks 1 A. Tucker Atterbury '16 Breanne Baldino '16
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Campbell Duffy '13 Connor Adams '15
Hawks 2 Mark Gargula '14 Morgan Wheeler '15
Tufts University Tufts University Willem Sandberg '14 Hannah Duggan '15
Jumbos Dan Nickerson '15 Jamie Maffeo '15
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bradley Brown '15 [1-10] Jade Schroeder '16 [1-5]
Taylor Peace '16 [6-10]
Bears Ellen Kintz '13 [1-10] Joshua Moan '15 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Robert Turley '16 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Brooke Doyon '13 [1-5]
James Fales '13 [6-10]		 Timothy Donahoe '15 [1-5]
Kelley Connolly '13 [6-10]
Huskies Myles Gibbs '16 [1-5]
Lyndsay Stockwell '14 [6-10]		 Marta Chlus '13 [1-5]
Jemma O'Donnell '15 [6-10]
University of Massachusetts at Boston University of Massachusetts at Boston Michelle Guidatti '13 Shawna Denn '12
Beacons Maggie Mcdonald '13
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Paige Fagan '14 [1-10] Julianne Shimer '15 [1-4, 6-10]
Justin Marks '14 [5]
Wildcats William Dykes '15 Danielle Dubois '13
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Samuel Cushing '15 Kelsey Conahan '15
Rams Samuel Morley '14 William Snyder '13
University of Vermont University of Vermont Jana Gailiunas '16 Eva Williford '14
Catamounts Jeffrey Chace '15 Callagy Ross '14

Conditions — 09/08/2012 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 83%  ·  Pressure 1008.3 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 72°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.7 kn
avg  ·  max 14.2 kn
Gusts to 31.9 kn
From S (179°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover68% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1008.3 hPa Rain0.07 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 16 kn · NW 6 kn · NW 12 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Roger Williams: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.17 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →