University of Rhode Island '15
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.27 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 12 | Spring 2013 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.08 (fleet 2.87) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 49–50 (49%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 7–11 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 18–21 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 3 | 24–18 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (71 matches) the record is 30–41 against 30.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-11 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.91 | 5.91 | 3–0 | 2.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.2 | 88% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 2.82 | 2.71 | 4–11 | 4.3 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 2.65 | -0.35 | 0–3 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| 2014-03-22 | Staake Trophy | skipper | 2.69 | 2.27 | 10–8 | 11.5 | −0.42 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 2014-03-08 | TR Invite | skipper | 2.52 | 2.24 | 8–8 | 8.9 | −0.28 | 0.2 | 78% |
| 2013-04-06 | Friis & Marchiando Trophies | skipper | 2.54 | 3.65 | 5–11 | 2.3 | +1.12 | 2.4 | 6% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.8 | 3.49 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.8 | 3.13 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.4 | 3.03 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Seven | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.2 | 1.23 |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 11 | 2.6 | 4.00 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.2 | 2.11 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 17 | 10.1 | 2.89 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 3.9 | 2.89 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 8.5 | 1.69 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| TR Invite | Skipper | TR | 20 | 55% | — |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Staake Trophy | Skipper | TR | 23 | 48% | — |
| 22nd O'Toole Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | A | 18 | 2.4 | 2.36 |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 23% | — |
| 70th Greater Boston Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.4 | 2.50 |
| Admiral Alymers Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.2 | 1.91 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| RI States, 2nd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.8 | 2.11 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.5 | 2.49 |
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.4 | 2.67 |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.0 | 2.44 |
| Moody | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.5 | 2.27 |
| 31st Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 12.4 | 2.08 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 1 | 11.0 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.4 | 2.15 |
| 73rd Annual Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.2 | 2.92 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 22nd O'Toole Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.6 | 2.30 |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Friis & Marchiando Trophies | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| BDCC Tech Regatta Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.5 | 2.37 |
| Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 75% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.2 | 2.03 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.7 | 2.19 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.1 | 2.15 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.6 | 3.52 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| 9th George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.7 | 2.44 |
| Central Series 3 | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.5 | 2.40 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.8 | 1.01 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
