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22nd O'Toole Trophy @ SRU

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 211
2 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 228
3 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 229
4 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 356
5 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 360
6 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 382
7 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 386
8 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 410
9 University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 518
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 TOT Sailors
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams A 3 1 3 1 3 6 1 4 1 7 2 2 2 1 2 1 3 1 44 Samuel Cushing '15
Robert Piispanen '16
Brown University Brown University Bears B 9 2 4 7 2 11 2 1 2 4 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 3 56 Macklin Fluehr '17 [1-10]
James Barry '16 [11-18]
Haley Carter '17 [1-10]
Elizabeth Sturr '15 [11-18]
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks A 2 3 10 2 5 3 8 5 4 8 3 8 4 6 9 10 2 8 100 Matthew Miranda '17 [1-18]
Megan Vito '15 [1-5]
Stephanie Clancy '17 [6-18]
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners A 8 6 2 14 4 10 6 7 10 3 5 3 7 3 7 8 4 2 109 No Show
No Show
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies A 1 9 13 8 7 7 4 10 3 5 6 4 18 4 4 5 8 6 122 Jennifer Lee '17
Shannon Nardi '16
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks B 6 7 11 9 1 12 3 11 6 6 9 10 8 7 3 3 7 9 128 Alexander Root '14 [1-18]
Crete Clifford '17 [1-5]
Kaylen Heath '16 [6-18]
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals A 4 5 6 6 6 1 13 12 5 1 12 5 3 11 11 9 13 7 130 Lewis Fowler-Gerace '15
Maia Nelles-Sager '17
Brown University Brown University Bears A 14 11 5 11 13 13 5 6 12 2 8 6 9 12 6 6 11 5 155 Peter Bailey '15 [1-18]
Oksana Goretaya '17 [1-10]
Eric Xiao '17 [11-18]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies B 11 10 7 5 8 9 15 13 8 14 14 7 5 5 10 7 5 4 157 Minot Frye '16
Lindsay Martinez '18
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams B 5 4 8 15 9 4 14 16 9 12 4 13 13 9 13 15 9 13 185 Samuel Morley '14
Sarah Leonard '17
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers B 16 15 17 13 11 2 10 2 11 11 13 9 11 13 8 4 10 12 188 No Show
No Show
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers A 17 8 16 3 14 14 7 3 17 15 7 11 10 10 14 12 6 14 198 No Show
No Show
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs B 7 16 1 12 17 18 11 14 13 10 11 12 14 15 12 13 14 10 220 Kelsey Delosh '17 [1-18]
Courtney Grippin '17 [1-9]
Emily Doiron '15 [10-18]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies A 15 14 12 10 10 15 17 15 14 13 10 14 6 16 5 11 12 16 225 William Manning '18
Caitlin Cloonan '18
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies B 12 17 9 4 18 16 9 9 15 9 15 18 12 8 17 DNS 16 15 238 Lyndsay Stockwell '14 [1-10]
Peter Rodriguez '14 [11-18]
Catherine Stavola '14 [1-10]
Alexandra Rice '16 [11-18]
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners B 10 13 15 18 12 5 12 8 7 16 16 15 15 17 16 16 DNS 17 247 No Show
No Show
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals B 18 18 18 17 16 8 16 17 16 17 18 16 16 14 15 14 15 11 280 Earl Lin '15 [1-18]
Julian Dann '17 [1-10]
Lara Hetzel '17 [11-18]
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs A 13 12 14 16 15 17 18 18 18 18 17 17 17 18 18 17 17 18 298 Kelsey Martins '16 [1-18]
Angelica Brewer '17 [1-9]
Phoung Pham '17 [10-18]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (21 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A17A18A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears333334444455555666
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies88888999991010101010111111
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners444445555566666777
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers555556666677777888
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies666667777788888999
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams101010101011111111111212121212131313
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks777778888899999101010
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs9999910101010101111111111121212
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals111111111112121212121313131313141414

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B16B17B18B
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears121212121213131313131414141414151515
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies171717171718181818181919191919202020
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners131313131314141414141515151515161616
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers141414141415151515151616161616171717
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies151515151516161616161717171717181818
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams1919191919202020202033333444
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks161616161617171717171818181818191919
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs181818181819191919192020202020333
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals20202020203333344444555

Conditions — 04/19/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1023.1 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.3 kn
avg  ·  max 7.3 kn
Gusts to 16.3 kn
From WNW (300°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover25% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1023.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn · E 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Salve Regina: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.07 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Salve Regina by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (43 labelled days at Salve Regina).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →