| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | 9–3 |
| 2 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 9–3 |
| 3 |  |
Salve Regina University | Seahawks | 0–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 988 team race matches sailed before 2013-03-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 18 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.267 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 1 | 7.90 school −0.63, home +0.52 | Bradley Milliken / Robert Turley 2.72 Avery Fanning / Jennifer Lane 2.65 Dylan Finneran / Joshua Moan 2.40 | 78% | 9–3 (75%) | −0.3 |
| 2 | University of Rhode Island Rams | 2 | 7.60 school +0.23 | Samuel Cushing / Lauren Smith 2.15 Charles Nunn / Alex Davis Ryan Hughes / Molly Lucyk | 69% | 9–3 (75%) | +0.7 |
| 3 | Salve Regina University Seahawks | 3 | 4.35 school +0.12 | Christopher Jensen / Kathryn Travers Genevieve Marquardt / Alexander Root 0.98 Mary Clawson / Kelsey Bell 0.66 | 3% | 0–12 (0%) | −0.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | University of Rhode Island | 7.60 | 8.04 | 9–3 | 8.3 | +0.44 | 0.2 | 43% |
| 1 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 7.90 | 7.69 | 9–3 | 9.3 | −0.21 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 3 | Salve Regina University | 4.35 | 1.35 | 0–12 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Cushing | University of Rhode Island | 2.15 | 2.59 | 9–3 | 8.3 | +0.44 | 0.2 | 43% |
| Ryan Hughes | University of Rhode Island | 2.52 | 2.96 | 9–3 | 8.3 | +0.44 | 0.2 | 43% |
| Bradley Milliken | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 2.72 | 2.51 | 9–3 | 9.3 | −0.21 | 0.1 | 75% |
| Avery Fanning | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 2.65 | 2.45 | 9–3 | 9.3 | −0.21 | 0.1 | 75% |
| Dylan Finneran | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 2.40 | 2.19 | 9–3 | 9.3 | −0.21 | 0.1 | 75% |
| Christopher Jensen | Salve Regina University | 2.28 | -0.72 | 0–12 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Genevieve Marquardt | Salve Regina University | 0.98 | -2.02 | 0–12 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Mary Clawson | Salve Regina University | 0.66 | -2.34 | 0–12 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Bears | Rams | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 1–1 | ✕ | L | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 2–0 | W | ✕ | W |
| Salve Regina University Seahawks | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Bears | Rams | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 1–1 | ✕ | L | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 2–0 | W | ✕ | W |
| Salve Regina University Seahawks | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Bears | Rams | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| Salve Regina University Seahawks | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Bears | Rams | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| Salve Regina University Seahawks | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Bears | Rams | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| Salve Regina University Seahawks | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Bears | Rams | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 1–1 | ✕ | L | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 2–0 | W | ✕ | W |
| Salve Regina University Seahawks | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Rams | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Rams | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | Avery Fanning '16 Bradley Milliken '14 Dylan Finneran '15 |
Jennifer Lane '15 Robert Turley '16 Joshua Moan '15 |
|
University of Rhode Island | Rams | Charles Nunn '16 Ryan Hughes '13 Samuel Cushing '15 |
Alex Davis '15 Molly Lucyk '16 Lauren Smith '16 |
|
Salve Regina University | Seahawks | Christopher Jensen '14 Genevieve Marquardt '15 Mary Clawson '15 |
Kathryn Travers '16 Alexander Root '14 Kelsey Bell '15 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
