U. S. Coast Guard Academy '14
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 34.34 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.115 rating points from 10 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.15 (fleet 2.97) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 28–50 (36%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 3 | 5–24 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 4–7 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 3 | 19–19 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (52 matches) the record is 15–37 against 14.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 16 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-22 | Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.73 | 3.22 | 2–13 | 1.3 | +0.49 | 0.3 | 39% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 3.10 | 1.73 | 2–7 | 3.8 | −1.37 | 1.7 | 98% |
| 2014-03-01 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 3.17 | 1.17 | 1–4 | 2.2 | −2.00 | 1.6 | 99% |
| 2013-11-09 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.06 | 2.13 | 4–7 | 5.9 | −0.93 | 1.2 | 95% |
| 2013-04-20 | Staake Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.82 | 5.53 | 6–6 | 1.1 | +2.71 | 11.3 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 15 | 13% | — |
| Southern New-England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 13 | 11.8 | 1.90 |
| Charleston Spring Co-Ed | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.5 | 3.32 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 13 | 9.8 | 2.99 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| SMC Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 11.6 | 2.85 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.3 | 2.51 |
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 7.7 | 2.95 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.9 | 3.67 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 36% | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.8 | 3.04 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.5 | 3.48 |
| 73rd Annual Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 2.7 | 5.42 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Staake Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| Owen / Mosbacher / Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.2 | 2.93 |
| NEISA Dinghy Champs/CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 1 | 18.0 | — |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | A | 3 | 10.0 | 2.52 |
| Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 75% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 17 | 10.2 | 3.11 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.8 | 1.84 |
| Oberg | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.4 | 2.21 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.8 | 3.06 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 15.5 | 1.30 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.3 | 2.75 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 5 | 16.6 | 1.41 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.6 | 2.65 |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 11.4 | 2.53 |
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.4 | 2.77 |
| Owen, Mosbacher&Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.3 | 2.93 |
| New England Dinghy Championship | Skipper | A | 15 | 12.1 | 2.49 |
| Eckerd Intersectional | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.3 | 4.65 |
| Charleston Coed | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.0 | 2.52 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| 138th Rudolph Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.3 | 2.96 |
| RI State Champs @ SRU | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.5 | 3.39 |
| 70th Prof Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 10.2 | 2.81 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.4 | 3.32 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.2 | 2.94 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 11.0 | 2.83 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 13.2 | 2.73 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 14 | 15.5 | 2.20 |
| Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.4 | 2.75 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.6 | 2.67 |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 9.5 | 2.34 |
| NEISA Coed Dinghy Championship | Crew | B | 10 | 12.7 | — |
| Greater New York Dinghy | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.2 | 1.52 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.3 | 3.44 |
| 82nd Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 18 | 10.9 | 2.48 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.3 | 2.17 |
| Roger Williams Invitational | Skipper | A | 18 | 13.8 | 0.73 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 9 | 8.0 | 1.94 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.3 | 1.21 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.2 | 1.98 |
| Freshman Intersectional | Skipper | A | 18 | 9.2 | 2.19 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 2 | 11.0 | 1.44 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
