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Southern Seven

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 76
2 Brown University Brown University Bears 87
3 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 94
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 109
5 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 128
6 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 154
7 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 208
8 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 231
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks B 1 3 4 1 5 1 8 1 24 Kendal Richardson '17
Beatrice Bellacosa '17
Brown University Brown University Bears B 5 7 2 2 1 8 1 3 29 Franco Bilik '18
Eric Xiao '17
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats A 3 5 1 7 11 5 2 4 38 Peter Sterflinger '17
Alexa Giovanis '17
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams A 6 1 5 11 3 7 3 6 42 Samuel Cushing '15
Jack Hurley '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 2 2 9 8 6 2 9 12 50 James Beatty '17
Lara Dienemann '18
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks A 7 9 3 12 8 4 7 2 52 Scott Booth '16
Michael Mcbrien '18
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams B 11 4 6 5 4 3 11 8 52 Patrick Isherwood '17
Molly Lucyk '16
Brown University Brown University Bears A 8 8 7 3 9 9 5 9 58 Reid Secondo '16
Lauren Haller '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 12 6 8 6 2 10 10 5 59 Kate Shaner '16
Julia Fuller '17
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers A 4 10 11 9 DNF 6 4 7 68 Joseph Dragon '17
Sergio Gratta '18
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers B 13 11 12 4 7 12 13 14 86 Timothy Forgione '16
Erica Mutoh '17
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies A 9 12 10 10 10 14 12 11 88 George Williams '17
Charles Zizza '17
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats B 10 13 13 14 13 11 6 10 90 Thomas Pluchino '18
Amanda Balbi '17
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals B BYE 16 14 13 12 13 16 15 113 Elaine Maskus '15
Kevin Winnie '16
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals A 15 15 15 16 15 15 14 13 118 Dylan Nelson '15
Julian Dann '17
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies B 14 14 16 15 14 16 15 16 120 Christopher Baker '16
Joanna Scuteri '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears11223344
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies66554433
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats221118181717
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers33445566
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams778811111212
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks44332211
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos55667788
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals88776655

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears1111121213131414
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies1616151514141313
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats121211118877
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers1313141415151616
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams171718181122
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks1414131312121111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos1515161617171818
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals1818171716161515

Conditions — 10/25/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1005.5 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 63°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.0 kn
avg  ·  max 6.9 kn
Gusts to 15.9 kn
From WSW (258°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover25% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1005.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Roger Williams: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.24 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →