University of Rhode Island '17
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 1.36 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 16 | Spring 2018 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.38 (fleet 3.31) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 24–51 (32%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 12–19 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 0–4 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 12–28 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (75 matches) the record is 24–51 against 32.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−8.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 16 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-17 | Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.74 | 1.41 | 2–5 | 4.0 | −1.33 | 1.9 | 98% |
| 2018-03-10 | MIT Team Race Invitational Regatta | skipper | 2.80 | 2.70 | 10–10 | 10.3 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2018-03-04 | Sharpe Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.82 | -0.18 | 0–4 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
| 2017-10-15 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.89 | -0.11 | 0–4 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
| 2016-03-19 | The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.46 | 0.41 | 2–19 | 7.5 | −2.05 | 7.0 | >99% |
| 2016-03-12 | Arctic Circle Team Race | skipper | 2.08 | 3.18 | 10–9 | 7.4 | +1.10 | 2.1 | 8% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Sharpe Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.2 | 3.07 |
| MIT Team Race Invitational Regatta | Skipper | TR | 20 | 50% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| Coast Guard J/70 Open Keelboat | Skipper | A | 16 | 3.2 | 1.19 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.1 | 3.29 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.4 | 3.83 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.4 | 4.82 |
| Nicholas J Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.7 | 2.53 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.4 | 2.50 |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| The 77th Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.6 | 3.54 |
| 43rd Henry H.Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 12.0 | 2.73 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.9 | 2.73 |
| The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 21 | 10% | — |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.0 | 3.57 |
| Arctic Circle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 53% | — |
| 81st Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.9 | 2.67 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.0 | 2.32 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 14 | 12.9 | 2.23 |
| Central Series One | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.8 | -1.37 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.6 | 2.39 |
| 74th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 13.0 | 2.16 |
| 4th Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.4 | 2.60 |
| 33rd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 13.7 | 2.04 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 1 | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.3 | 1.83 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.1 | 2.29 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 9.0 | 1.80 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 7.0 | 2.00 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Seven | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.5 | -0.14 |
| Gardiner Island Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.8 | 1.23 |
| Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.2 | 2.17 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 3 | Skipper | B | 6 | 13.0 | — |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.9 | 0.44 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
