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Sharpe Team Race Trophy

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 8–2
2 Brown University Brown University Bears 8–2
3 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 7–3
4 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4–6
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3–4
6 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 2–5
7 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2–5
8 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 0–7

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,698 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 25 of 35 matches (71%) with a log-loss of 0.532 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.46 ± 0.42: an orderly event, more orderly than 90% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		39.62
school −0.11		Cutter O'Connell / Sarah Caso 3.09 8–2
Stephen Duncan / Sameena Shaffeeullah 2.74 5–1
Ty Ingram / Sameena Shaffeeullah 3.69 4–1
Trevor Long / Marcus Abate 3.31 4–1
Ty Ingram / Marcus Abate 3.67 3–1
Trevor Long / John Ped 3.22 3–0		60%9–2 (82%)+2.4
2Brown University
Bears		19.88
school +0.28, home +0.41		Patrick Shanahan / Julia Kim 3.44 6–3
Quinn Andersen / Julia Reynolds 2.86 4–3
Sam Alexander / Emily Ito 2.90 3–1
Sam Alexander / Sawyer Balint 2.86 2–2
Sam Alexander / Abigayle Konys 2.88 3–0
Franco Bilik / Megha Malpani 2.76 3–0
Patrick Shanahan / Abigayle Konys 3.45 1–0
Quinn Andersen / Emily Ito 2.90 1–0
Patrick Shanahan / Emily Ito 3.47 1–0		71%8–3 (73%)+0.1
3Harvard University
Crimson		29.66
school −0.12		Nick Sertl / Christine Gosioco 3.63
Nick Digiovanni / Catherine Tang 3.03 4–1
Nick Digiovanni / Zennie Wey 2.98 3–2
Henry Burnes / Catherine Tang 3.27 3–2
Taylor Ladd / Kirstin Anderson 2.92 2–1
Eli Burnes / Kevin Coakley 3.10 2–0		61%7–3 (70%)+0.9
4U. S. Coast Guard Academy
Bears		68.41
school −0.37		Shane Riera / Brian Nelson
Mack Fox / Christina Nothacker 2.99 3–4
Dana Rohde / Austin Lettengarver 3.45 1–3
Mack Fox / Anna Morin 3.07 1–2
Dana Rohde / Anna Morin 3.47 2–1
Austin Lettengarver / Anna Morin 3.02 1–2		33%4–6 (40%)+0.7
5Tufts University
Jumbos		88.26
school +0.08		Christopher Keller / Michelle Chisdak 2.68
Jackson Mccoy / Jacob Whitney 3.00
Samuel Shea / Juliana Testa 2.42		30%3–4 (43%)+0.9
6Dartmouth College
Big Green		48.98
school +0.17		Erik Weis / Eloise Burn 2.74
Duncan Williford / Peninah Benjamin 3.27
Max Clapp / Sophia Diserio		49%2–5 (29%)−1.5
7Connecticut College
Camels		58.96
school +0.07		Walter Florio / Albert Rodiger 3.06 2–3
Hugh Macgillivray / Erin Smith 3.36 2–2
Charlotte List / Alexandra Maurillo 1–2
Hugh Macgillivray / Gwynie Dunlevy 3.27 0–3
Walter Florio / Erin Smith 2.94 0–2
Alexandra Maurillo / Paige Dunlevy 0–2
Charlotte List / Gwynie Dunlevy 1–0
Charlotte List / Katherine (Katie) Rodger 0–1		48%2–5 (29%)−1.4
8University of Rhode Island
Rams		78.25
school −0.13		Luke Ingalls / Ellis Havelock 2.43
Brendan Read / Lauren Richards 2.92 0–5
Patrick Isherwood / Jack Hurley 2.82 0–4
Dakota Northrup / Kathryn Nota 3.14 0–3
Dakota Northrup / Ian Nannig 2.97 0–2		31%0–7 (0%)−2.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Massachusetts Institute of Technology9.6210.829–26.6+1.201.910%
5Tufts University8.268.873–42.1+0.610.435%
3Harvard University9.6610.117–36.1+0.440.340%
4U. S. Coast Guard Academy8.418.754–63.3+0.340.243%
2Brown University9.889.958–37.9+0.070.061%
7Connecticut College8.967.982–53.4−0.981.094%
6Dartmouth College8.987.972–53.5−1.011.095%
8University of Rhode Island8.255.250–72.2≤−3.003.8>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Franco BilikBrown University2.765.763–02.4≥+3.000.951%
Trevor LongMassachusetts Institute of Technology3.314.547–15.5+1.231.221%
Ty IngramMassachusetts Institute of Technology3.694.667–25.4+0.961.121%
Taylor LaddHarvard University2.923.622–11.6+0.700.252%
Christopher KellerTufts University2.683.293–42.1+0.610.435%
Samuel SheaTufts University2.423.023–42.1+0.610.435%
Nick DigiovanniHarvard University3.033.487–36.1+0.440.340%
Austin LettengarverU. S. Coast Guard Academy3.023.461–20.8+0.440.160%
Walter FlorioConnecticut College3.062.072–53.4−0.981.094%
Max ClappDartmouth College2.631.612–53.5−1.011.095%
Patrick IsherwoodUniversity of Rhode Island2.82-0.180–41.3≤−3.002.1>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Harvard UniversityDartmouth College70%
12Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyU. S. Coast Guard Academy64%
13Tufts UniversityConnecticut College31%upset
14Brown UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island84%
15U. S. Coast Guard AcademyDartmouth College39%upset
16Harvard UniversityConnecticut College64%
17Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of Rhode Island79%
18Brown UniversityTufts University84%
19Connecticut CollegeU. S. Coast Guard Academy67%
110Dartmouth CollegeUniversity of Rhode Island71%
111Harvard UniversityTufts University77%
112Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBrown University39%upset
113Connecticut CollegeUniversity of Rhode Island73%
114U. S. Coast Guard AcademyTufts University56%
115Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDartmouth College73%
116Brown UniversityHarvard University61%
117Tufts UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island49%upset
118Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyConnecticut College74%
119U. S. Coast Guard AcademyHarvard University23%upset
120Brown UniversityDartmouth College71%
121Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyTufts University85%
122Harvard UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island81%
123Dartmouth CollegeConnecticut College60%
124Brown UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy84%
125Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyHarvard University56%
126Tufts UniversityDartmouth College32%upset
127U. S. Coast Guard AcademyUniversity of Rhode Island43%upset
128Brown UniversityConnecticut College73%
229Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyU. S. Coast Guard Academy59%
230Harvard UniversityBrown University39%upset
231Brown UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy83%
232Harvard UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology44%upset
233Harvard UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy76%
234Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology62%
335Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBrown University38%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.EngineersBearsCrimsonBearsJumbosGreenCamelsRams
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers7–0✕WWWWWWW
Brown University Bears6–1L✕WWWWWW
Harvard University Crimson4–3LL✕LWWWW
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears4–3LLW✕WWLW
Tufts University Jumbos3–4LLLL✕WWW
Dartmouth College Big Green2–5LLLLL✕WW
Connecticut College Camels2–5LLLWLL✕W
University of Rhode Island Rams0–7LLLLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.EngineersBearsCrimsonBears
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers1–2✕LLW
Brown University Bears2–1W✕LW
Harvard University Crimson3–0WW✕W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears0–3LLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.EngineersBears
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers1–0✕W
Brown University Bears0–1L✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-6
2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-6 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-4-5
3 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 2-4-6
4 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 1-5-6
5 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2-3-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 1-5-6
6 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-6 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-5
7 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
8 Brown University Bears 1-3-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-4-6
9 Connecticut College Camels 2-3-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-5-6
10 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-4-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-3-6
11 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 4-5-6
12 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-5
13 Connecticut College Camels 1-4-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-3-6
14 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
15 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 1-5-6
16 Brown University Bears 1-3-4 def. Harvard University Crimson 2-5-6
17 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-5
18 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-6
19 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-4-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 1-2-6 DSQ,DSQ
20 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-5
21 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 4-5-6
22 Harvard University Crimson 1-3-6 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-4-5
23 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-6
24 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-4-6
25 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-4 def. Harvard University Crimson 1-5-6
26 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-5
27 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-2-6 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-5
28 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-6
29 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-4-6
30 Harvard University Crimson 1-3-5 def. Brown University Bears 2-4-6
31 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-4-6
32 Harvard University Crimson 1-3-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-4-6
33 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-5-6
34 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-5-6
35 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-4 def. Brown University Bears 2-5-6

Conditions — 03/04/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1016.4 hPa

Temperature

40°F
↑ 42°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 30°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.2 kn
avg  ·  max 11.7 kn
Gusts to 26.4 kn
From NNE (12°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine1.7 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1016.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Brown — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Brown in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (78 labelled fleet-race days at Brown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →