Harvard University '18
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.66 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 17 | Fall 2015 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.48 (fleet 3.43) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 36–51 (41%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 4 | 17–7 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 16–22 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 0–10 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 3–12 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (87 matches) the record is 36–51 against 39.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 16 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-31 | Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.96 | 4.04 | 2–1 | 1.3 | +1.08 | 0.5 | 39% |
| 2018-03-24 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.00 | 3.10 | 3–3 | 2.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2018-03-17 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 2.97 | 4.01 | 10–2 | 8.2 | +1.04 | 1.3 | 17% |
| 2018-03-04 | Sharpe Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.92 | 3.62 | 2–1 | 1.6 | +0.70 | 0.2 | 52% |
| 2017-04-08 | New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.12 | 3.04 | 5–13 | 5.3 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2017-03-25 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.89 | 3.13 | 6–8 | 5.4 | +0.24 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2017-03-18 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.78 | 4.13 | 5–1 | 3.8 | +1.36 | 1.1 | 24% |
| 2015-03-28 | Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.54 | -0.46 | 0–10 | 3.9 | ≤−3.00 | 7.4 | >99% |
| 2014-11-08 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.16 | 0.32 | 3–12 | 7.5 | −1.84 | 5.4 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.9 | 3.97 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.0 | 3.47 |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 78% | — |
| Sharpe Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.5 | 3.28 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.2 | 3.22 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.8 | 3.45 |
| Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 24 | 58% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.5 | 3.69 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 11.4 | 2.85 |
| The Toni Deutsch MIT '58 Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 5.1 | 4.12 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.9 | 3.17 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.2 | 3.80 |
| 35th Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.5 | 3.85 |
| 2017 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.4 | 3.62 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.0 | 3.51 |
| New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 18 | 28% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.8 | 3.00 |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 11 | 82% | — |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.1 | 2.90 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.6 | 3.36 |
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.5 | 3.69 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.6 | 3.28 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.9 | 3.27 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.7 | 3.40 |
| 74th Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 16 | 3.2 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.2 | 3.50 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.9 | 2.40 |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.9 | 2.98 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.5 | 2.54 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 13.2 | 2.10 |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.4 | 3.17 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.0 | 2.97 |
| NEISA Women's Singlehanded Championships Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.7 | 2.67 |
| NE Match Racing Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.2 | 2.94 |
| LaserPerformance Women's Singlehanded Championship Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 11 | 11.5 | 1.83 |
| 73rd Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 2.6 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 10 | 0% | — |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 11.1 | 2.43 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 14.5 | 1.43 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 10.5 | 2.80 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.8 | 2.36 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.4 | 3.48 |
| Central Series, Savin Hill | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.5 | 2.58 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.1 | 2.00 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.4 | 2.11 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.7 | 2.19 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 11.6 | 2.34 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.8 | 2.93 |
| 35th Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.5 | 2.37 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
