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Team Race Invite

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Boston College Boston College Eagles 9–1
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 8–2
3 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 6–4
4 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 4–6
5 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3–7
6 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 0–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 4,801 team race matches sailed before 2015-03-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 22 of 30 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.463 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.27 ± 0.36: a typical event, more orderly than 73% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Boston College
Eagles		19.72
school +0.08, home +0.25		Domenic Bove / Brooke Hensley 2.99
Harry Koeppel / Kaitlin Driscoll 3.26
Henry Dumke / Emily Schalka 3.10		80%9–1 (90%)+1.0
2Tufts University
Jumbos		29.54
school +0.17		Scott Barbano / Caroline Atwood 3.22
Casey Gowrie / Leah Fletcher 3.03
John Rolander / Natalie Danziger		76%8–2 (80%)+0.4
3Roger Williams University
Hawks		38.38Stewart Draheim / James Bartlein 2.98
Michael Gemperline / Morgan Wheeler 2.67
James Kennedy / Beatrice Bellacosa		50%6–4 (60%)+1.0
4Fordham University
Rams		67.33
school −0.14		Adam Keally / Katherine Jones 2.50
Anders Ekholm / Gabrielle Mascio 2.17
Adelaide Ferguson / Lauren Holderman 2.60		25%4–6 (40%)+1.5
5Hobart and William Smith Colleges
Statesmen		57.56
school +0.08		Noah Barrengos Barrengos / Christine Moloney 2.32
Parker Trepton / Adam Schaefer 2.72
Connor Swikart / Elizabeth Mccabe 2.21		30%3–7 (30%)−0.0
6Harvard University
Crimson		47.92
school −0.30		Nick Sertl / Nomin-Erdene Jagdagdorj
Dylan Farrell / Olivia Kjorlien
Taylor Ladd / Kristina Jakobson 2.54		39%0–10 (0%)−3.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Boston College9.7210.609–18.0+0.880.637%
4Fordham University7.338.144–62.5+0.800.921%
3Roger Williams University8.388.916–45.0+0.530.435%
2Tufts University9.549.798–27.6+0.250.157%
5Hobart and William Smith Colleges7.567.553–73.0−0.010.064%
6Harvard University7.924.920–103.9≤−3.007.4>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Domenic BoveBoston College2.993.869–18.0+0.880.637%
Harry KoeppelBoston College3.264.149–18.0+0.880.637%
Henry DumkeBoston College3.103.989–18.0+0.880.637%
Adam KeallyFordham University2.503.304–62.5+0.800.921%
Anders EkholmFordham University2.172.984–62.5+0.800.921%
Adelaide FergusonFordham University2.603.404–62.5+0.800.921%
Michael GemperlineRoger Williams University2.673.206–45.0+0.530.435%
James KennedyRoger Williams University2.663.196–45.0+0.530.435%
Scott BarbanoTufts University3.223.468–27.6+0.250.157%
Casey GowrieTufts University3.033.278–27.6+0.250.157%
John RolanderTufts University2.993.248–27.6+0.250.157%
Noah Barrengos BarrengosHobart and William Smith Colleges2.322.313–73.0−0.010.064%
Taylor LaddHarvard University2.54-0.460–103.9≤−3.007.4>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Hobart and William Smith CollegesHarvard University41%upset
12Fordham UniversityRoger Williams University24%upset
13Tufts UniversityBoston College43%upset
14Fordham UniversityHarvard University36%upset
15Tufts UniversityHobart and William Smith Colleges89%
16Boston CollegeRoger Williams University80%
17Tufts UniversityFordham University90%
18Roger Williams UniversityHarvard University62%
19Boston CollegeHobart and William Smith Colleges90%
110Roger Williams UniversityTufts University24%upset
111Hobart and William Smith CollegesFordham University55%
112Boston CollegeHarvard University86%
113Roger Williams UniversityHobart and William Smith Colleges69%
114Tufts UniversityHarvard University83%
115Boston CollegeFordham University92%
216Hobart and William Smith CollegesHarvard University41%upset
217Roger Williams UniversityFordham University73%
218Boston CollegeTufts University54%
219Fordham UniversityHarvard University35%upset
220Tufts UniversityHobart and William Smith Colleges88%
221Boston CollegeRoger Williams University79%
222Tufts UniversityFordham University90%
223Roger Williams UniversityHarvard University60%
224Boston CollegeHobart and William Smith Colleges89%
225Tufts UniversityRoger Williams University77%
226Fordham UniversityHobart and William Smith Colleges44%upset
227Boston CollegeHarvard University85%
228Roger Williams UniversityHobart and William Smith Colleges68%
229Tufts UniversityHarvard University83%
230Boston CollegeFordham University91%

Round 1

TeamRec.EaglesJumbosHawksRamsStatesmenCrimson
Boston College Eagles4–1✕LWWWW
Tufts University Jumbos4–1W✕LWWW
Roger Williams University Hawks3–2LW✕LWW
Fordham University Rams2–3LLW✕LW
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen2–3LLLW✕W
Harvard University Crimson0–5LLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.EaglesJumbosHawksRamsStatesmenCrimson
Boston College Eagles5–0✕WWWWW
Tufts University Jumbos4–1L✕WWWW
Roger Williams University Hawks3–2LL✕WWW
Fordham University Rams2–3LLL✕WW
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen1–4LLLL✕W
Harvard University Crimson0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-5
2 Fordham University Rams 1-2-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-5
3 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-5 def. Boston College Eagles 1-4-6
4 Fordham University Rams 1-2-6 DNF def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-5
5 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-4 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2-5-6
6 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 4-5-6
7 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. Fordham University Rams 1-5-6 DNS
8 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-4 def. Harvard University Crimson 2-5-6
9 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3-4-6
10 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
11 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-5 def. Fordham University Rams 3-4-6 DNS
12 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Harvard University Crimson 4-5-6
13 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3-5-6
14 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Harvard University Crimson 4-5-6
15 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Fordham University Rams 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
16 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-3-4 def. Harvard University Crimson 2-5-6
17 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Fordham University Rams 3-4-5
18 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 4-5-6
19 Fordham University Rams 1-2-4 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-5-6
20 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3-4-6
21 Boston College Eagles 1-3-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2-4-6
22 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. Fordham University Rams 3-5-6
23 Roger Williams University Hawks 2-3-4 def. Harvard University Crimson 1-5-6
24 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3-4-6
25 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-5-6
26 Fordham University Rams 1-2-5 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3-4-6
27 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Harvard University Crimson 4-5-6
28 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3-4-5
29 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-6
30 Boston College Eagles 2-3-4 def. Fordham University Rams 1-5-6

Conditions — 03/28/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌨️Moderate snow
Humidity 87%  ·  Pressure 1008.2 hPa

Temperature

34°F
↑ 35°F   ↓ 34°F
Feels like 25°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.6 kn
avg  ·  max 14.4 kn
Gusts to 25.9 kn
From N (10°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1008.2 hPa Rain0.04 in Snow1.24 in

What this breeze does at Boston College — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Boston College in this breeze: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Boston College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (29 labelled fleet-race days at Boston College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →